If you’re looking for a tight, down-to-the-wire photo finish in the MVP race this year, I have some bad news. You might want to look elsewhere. Honestly, the current NBA MVP odds are starting to look less like a race and more like a coronation for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Canadian guard has basically taken the league by the throat.
Right now, sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have SGA sitting as a massive favorite, with odds hovering around -360 to -400. To put that in perspective, a -400 price tag implies a roughly 80% chance that he walks away with his second straight trophy. We’re only in January. Usually, this is the time when things get "spicy," but Shai has been so ruthlessly efficient that he’s sucking the air out of the room.
The SGA Juggernaut and the Numbers Behind It
It isn't just that the Oklahoma City Thunder are winning. They're destroying people. Shai is averaging 31.9 points per game, but it's the way he’s doing it that has voters and bettors convinced.
He’s currently on a streak of 109 consecutive games with at least 20 points. That's the second-longest streak in NBA history. He's only trailing Wilt Chamberlain. Let that sink in for a second. We are talking about "Wilt territory" for a guy who plays the game at a methodical, almost hypnotic pace.
What really separates him this year—and why his odds have shortened so aggressively—is his two-way impact. According to recent midseason reports from The Washington Post, SGA is the only top MVP candidate who ranks in the top 100 in defensive rating while also being in the top 25 for offensive rating. He’s a two-way monster disguised as a smooth scoring guard.
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The Thunder are currently pacing for 68 wins, which would match their total from last season. If they actually break the 70-win barrier, these odds will probably move to -1000.
The Luka in LA Experiment
Then you have Luka Doncic.
The Slovenian superstar is in his first full season with the Los Angeles Lakers, and predictably, he’s putting up video game numbers. He’s leading the league in scoring at 35 points per night. His usage rate is a staggering 36.7%. If you just looked at a box score, you’d think he’s the runaway winner.
But the oddsmakers aren't biting as hard as you'd think.
Luka is sitting at +500 to +650 depending on where you shop. Why the gap? It’s usually about team success. While the Lakers are good, they aren’t the "74-win pace" Thunder. Also, the Lakers' offense with LeBron James back in the mix and Austin Reaves playing like a Most Improved Player candidate means Luka doesn't have to carry the same burden every single night, even if he chooses to.
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Voters love a winner. If the Lakers can’t snag a top-two seed in the West, it’s hard to see Luka leapfrogging Shai, no matter how many 40-point triple-doubles he drops.
The Jokic Injury Factor
It’s weird to see Nikola Jokic as a "longshot" in the context of his own history, but here we are.
Before he hyperextended his knee in December, Jokic was actually the favorite in many statistical models. The Basketball Reference MVP Tracker had him at an 87% probability in mid-November. He was averaging a triple-double: 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 11.0 assists.
Then the injury happened.
The NBA’s 65-game rule is the ultimate "boogeyman" for MVP candidates now. If you don't play 65 games, you are ineligible. Period. Jokic has missed significant time, and while his per-game impact is still arguably the highest in the league, the uncertainty surrounding his health has pushed his value down in the betting markets. If he returns and Denver goes on a 15-game winning streak, maybe the narrative shifts. But right now? He’s the "What If" candidate of the 2025-26 season.
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The Chase Pack: Who Else is Even Close?
- Cade Cunningham (+1500 to +2500): The Detroit Pistons are actually relevant! Cade has them sitting near the top of the Eastern Conference. He’s putting up 27.5 points and 9.3 assists. He’s a dark horse, but usually, the "leap" from lottery team to MVP winner takes two years, not one.
- Jaylen Brown (+3000 to +3500): He's the best player on the best team in the East (Boston). However, the Celtics are so deep that it’s hard for one guy to claim all the credit. It’s the "Celtics Tax."
- Victor Wembanyama (+1000 pre-season, now drifting): Wemby is the biggest "liability" for Vegas because so many people bet on him early. He’s averaging 3.6 blocks and over 26 points, but the Spurs are still middle-of-the-pack. He’ll win an MVP soon. It just probably won’t be this one.
Is There Value in Betting the Field?
Honestly? Probably not.
SGA has the perfect "MVP cocktail" brewing. He has the stats. He has the team record. He has the health (so far). And most importantly, he has the "narrative." After winning last year, he hasn't regressed; he’s actually gotten better defensively.
The only way the current NBA MVP odds flip is if Shai misses two or three weeks of action. In that scenario, Luka or a healthy Jokic could swoop in. But betting on an injury is a grim way to play the market.
If you're looking for a smarter move, keep an eye on the "Clutch Player of the Year" or "Most Improved" markets. The MVP race feels like it’s in a freezer. Shai is just too consistent to let it slip.
What to watch for next:
- Check the Thunder’s injury report daily; any Shai absence is the only thing keeping this race alive.
- Monitor the Lakers' seeding; if they hit #1 in the West, Luka’s +650 odds become the steal of the century.
- Watch the 65-game tracker for Jokic and Embiid to see who is actually eligible by March.