You'd think after a 24-1 start, the betting markets would just close up shop and hand the trophy to Oklahoma City right now. But the NBA is never that simple. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like a video game character, sure. Yet, if you look at the current NBA championship odds as we hit mid-January 2026, there is a weird amount of tension under the surface.
Honestly, the "repeat" narrative is everywhere. Most books have the Thunder sitting at +110 or +115, which is basically the Vegas way of saying "yeah, they're probably going to win." But we’ve seen this movie before. Injuries happen. Momentum shifts. Teams like Denver and New York are lurking with enough firepower to make things uncomfortable.
The Heavyweight: Oklahoma City Thunder (+115)
It’s actually kinda terrifying how deep this team is. They won the 2025 Finals over Indiana, and they didn't just stand pat. They've got the best net rating in the league by a mile. Shai is the MVP frontrunner at +120, and Jalen Williams has taken such a leap that he’s basically a co-star now.
The math for OKC is simple: they don't have a weakness. They defend at an elite level, and they don't turn the ball over. But, and this is a big "but," they did lose to Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs recently. They've also had a couple of weird stinkers, like that loss to the Hornets where they just looked human. At +115, you aren't getting much value, but you're betting on the most stable machine in basketball.
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The Western Threats: Jokic and the Alien
If anyone is going to ruin the Thunder’s party, it’s probably the guy with the three MVP trophies.
Denver Nuggets (+700)
Denver is basically the ultimate "just get to the playoffs healthy" team. Nikola Jokic has been dealing with a knee issue lately, which has pushed their odds out to +700. If you think he’s going to be 100% by April, this is probably the best value on the board. When that starting five is clicking, they are still the only team that can reliably score on OKC's defense.
San Antonio Spurs (+1200)
This is where things get interesting. The Spurs were +5500 in the preseason. Now? They're +1200. Why? Because Victor Wembanyama is no longer "the future"—he is the "right now." He’s the Defensive Player of the Year favorite (-300) and the Spurs are 3-0 against the Thunder this season. Vegas is starting to realize that a 7-foot-4 guy who can block Shai at the rim and then hit a pull-up three on the other end is a massive problem in a seven-game series.
Chaos in the East: Knicks, Pistons, and Hospital Reports
The Eastern Conference is a total mess. There’s no other way to put it.
The New York Knicks (+1200) just won the NBA Cup, which gave them a nice little boost in the markets. Jalen Brunson is a wizard, but the Karl-Anthony Towns experience has been... inconsistent. One night he looks like the best shooting big man ever; the next night, the defense is a sieve.
Then you have the Detroit Pistons at +1700. Yeah, you read that right. The Pistons. They have the best record in the East (21-5) and the number two defense in the league. Cade Cunningham has finally reached that "All-NBA" tier. They aren't the joke of the league anymore; they’re a legitimate threat to make the Finals because the traditional powers are falling apart.
- Boston Celtics (+2000): Jayson Tatum’s Achilles injury has basically tanked their season. They’re still a "name" team, but without their superstar, the odds reflect a team that's just trying to survive.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (+2200): They started strong but have faded. Donovan Mitchell is still elite, but they lack the punch to overcome a healthy New York or Detroit right now.
- Philadelphia 76ers (+5000): It’s the same old story. If Embiid and Paul George stay healthy, they can win it all. If they don't? They're out in the first round. The +5000 reflects that 50/50 coin flip.
What Most People Get Wrong About Championship Odds
A lot of casual bettors look at the +115 for the Thunder and think it’s a "sure thing." It’s not. In fact, historically, teams with odds that short in January often face a "value trap."
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Remember the 2019 Raptors? They were +1850. The 2023 Nuggets were +1800 in the preseason. The "favorites" usually get all the media hype, but the real money is made on the teams that have a specific matchup advantage against the leader.
The Spurs are that team this year. They have the size to bother OKC in a way no one else does. If you're looking for a "smart" play, looking at the Spurs or even a healthy Nuggets squad offers a much better ROI than laying money on the Thunder at such a low payout.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're tracking the current NBA championship odds to find an edge, keep these specific triggers in mind before placing a bet:
- Monitor the Trade Deadline: Houston (+1300) is reportedly looking for more offense to pair with Kevin Durant. If they land another shooter, those odds will shrink instantly.
- The "Alien" Factor: Watch Wembanyama's minutes. If San Antonio keeps winning against top-tier West teams, their +1200 price will be gone by February.
- The Achilles Watch: Don't touch the Celtics or Bucks until there is a definitive "return to play" date for Tatum or Lillard. Betting on Achilles recoveries mid-season is a losing game.
- Health over Hype: The Nuggets at +700 is only a play if Jokic’s knee issue is confirmed as minor. Check the injury reports daily; a "clean" MRI for Jokic is worth a 200-point shift in odds.
The Thunder are the best team, but the "field" is starting to close the gap. Between the rise of Detroit in the East and the Wembanyama supernova in the West, the second half of the 2025-26 season is going to be a lot more volatile than the odds currently suggest.
Next Steps for Your Strategy
- Audit your exposure: If you're heavily invested in OKC, consider hedging with a small play on San Antonio (+1200) given their head-to-head success.
- Check the Net Rating: Compare the Top 5 teams in Net Rating against their current odds. Currently, the Timberwolves (+3500) have a Top 10 Net Rating but are priced like a lottery team—keep an eye on them for a value "longshot" play.