Everything's changing. Just when you think you've got the AFC bracket figured out, some wild Monday night result or a freak turnover in Jacksonville flips the whole script.
If you're looking at the current AFC playoff picture and feeling a little lost, join the club. We are officially in the thick of the Divisional Round. The Wild Card dust has settled, and frankly, some of the results were just bizarre. Who actually had the Steelers getting blown out by 24 points at home? Or the Bills traveling to Jacksonville and somehow surviving a dogfight?
Right now, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Denver. But man, that road is looking bumpy.
The Big Dogs: Who's Left in the AFC?
Let's look at the actual survivors. We started with seven. Now we have four.
The Denver Broncos are the ones everyone is chasing. They locked up the No. 1 seed with a 14-3 record, and honestly, that Week 18 win over the Chargers was a masterclass in "don't screw this up." Bo Nix isn't exactly lighting the world on fire with 400-yard games, but he’s playing mistake-free football. That defense, though? It’s scary. They’ve allowed the fewest points in the conference, and having that first-round bye was massive for resting some banged-up guys in their secondary.
Then you've got the New England Patriots. Yeah, they're back. Drake Maye is officially "the guy" after finishing the season with 31 touchdowns and over 4,300 yards. They dismantled the Chargers 16-3 in the Wild Card round. It wasn't pretty, but it was effective. They look like a team that actually remembers how to win in January.
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The Chaos Creators
- Buffalo Bills (No. 6 seed): They are the ultimate "I don't know which version is showing up" team. They just beat the Jaguars 27-24 in a game that felt like it lasted six hours. Josh Allen is still playing like a human highlight reel, but he’s also keeping the heart doctors in Buffalo busy with some of those throws.
- Houston Texans (No. 5 seed): They basically just ended the Mike Tomlin era in Pittsburgh with a 30-6 thumping. C.J. Stroud is playing with house money. They aren't supposed to be this good this fast, but the defense is flying around like they’ve got something to prove.
The Matchups: What's Happening Right Now
If you're checking your watch, the first game of the weekend is literally kicking off as we speak.
Bills at Broncos (Saturday, 4:30 PM ET)
This is the one. The No. 6 seed versus the No. 1 seed. Most people assume Denver just cruises here because of the altitude and that defense, but the Bills already beat them in the playoffs last year. Buffalo is a 1.5-point underdog, which is basically a toss-up.
The key here is the turnover battle. If Josh Allen gives the ball to that Denver defense even once in his own half, it’s over. Denver doesn't need to score 30 to win. They just need to wait for you to make a mistake.
Texans at Patriots (Sunday, 3:00 PM ET)
This is a battle of the young QBs. Maye vs. Stroud. Honestly, this might be the most fun game of the whole weekend. New England is at home, and Gillette Stadium in January is a nightmare for young teams. But Houston has this weird energy right now. They don’t seem to realize they’re the underdog.
The Texans' defense is the real story here. If they can confuse Drake Maye the way they confused the Steelers, we might be looking at a massive upset that sends Houston to the AFC Championship.
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What Most People Are Missing About the Current AFC Playoff Picture
Everyone focuses on the quarterbacks. Allen, Maye, Stroud, Nix.
But look at the trenches. The reason the current AFC playoff picture looks the way it does is because of offensive line health. The Jaguars lost because they couldn't protect Lawrence when it mattered. The Steelers lost because they couldn't run the ball an inch against Houston.
Denver is the No. 1 seed because their O-line stayed healthy all 17 games. If you're betting on these games or just trying to sound smart at the bar, stop looking at the passing yards. Look at who's playing at Left Tackle.
Also, can we talk about the "Home Field Advantage" myth?
Last year, road teams went on a tear. Buffalo is playing in the cold today, but they live in the cold. Denver's altitude is the real factor, not the temperature. If the Bills can keep their oxygen levels up in the fourth quarter, being the No. 6 seed won't matter one bit.
The Road to Super Bowl LX
The winner of the Bills-Broncos game will host or travel to face the winner of Texans-Patriots.
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If Denver wins, they host the AFC Championship. Period. That is why they fought so hard for that 14-3 record. They want everyone coming to Mile High.
If Buffalo pulls the upset today, and New England wins tomorrow? The Bills have to go to Foxboro. If Houston and Buffalo both win? The AFC Championship would actually be in Houston because they are the No. 5 seed and Buffalo is the No. 6.
It’s a mess. A beautiful, high-stakes mess.
Your Next Steps for the Divisional Round
Don't just stare at the standings. Here is how you actually keep up with this weekend's chaos:
- Watch the Injury Reports for the Patriots: Drake Maye had a slight limp at the end of the Chargers game. If he’s not 100% mobile, the Texans' pass rush will eat him alive.
- Check the Altitude Factor: Keep an eye on the Bills' rotations in the first quarter against Denver. If they are subbing in their defensive line every three plays, they're worried about the thin air.
- Monitor the Weather in Foxboro: Sunday is looking rainy. Rain favors a ground game, which actually gives a slight edge to Houston's Joe Mixon over the Patriots' more aerial attack.
Keep your eyes on the live scores. In this conference, the No. 1 seed is never as safe as they think they are. It's going to be a long weekend.