Honestly, it feels like the Chicago Cubs just sucked all the oxygen out of the room. One minute we’re wondering if Jed Hoyer will ever actually open the checkbook, and the next, Alex Bregman is wearing a Cubs jersey thanks to a massive $175 million deal. It’s the kind of move that changes everything. But here’s the thing: it didn’t just fix the hole at third base; it created a massive logjam that has sparked a fresh wave of Cubs MLB trade rumors just as we’re hitting the 2026 Cubs Convention.
The math is getting weird. You have Bregman at third. You have Dansby Swanson locked in at short. You have the Gold Glover Nico Hoerner at second. And then there's Matt Shaw—the kid who basically forced his way into the conversation with a breakout 2025.
Someone has to be the odd man out, right?
The Nico Hoerner Dilemma: To Move or Not to Move?
The hottest name in the rumor mill right now isn't some prospect you've never heard of. It's Nico Hoerner. Reports from the past few days have linked the Giants, Mariners, and Yankees to the Cubs' second baseman.
It makes sense on paper. Hoerner is entering the final year of his contract. He’s a known commodity—elite defense, high contact, and a leader in the clubhouse. If Hoyer thinks Shaw is ready to take over second base full-time, trading Hoerner now is the "smart" business move to recoup value before he hits free agency.
But talk to the fans at Clark and Addison, and they'll tell you the "smart" move feels like a punch in the gut. Hoerner himself addressed the noise at CubCon, basically saying he wants to stay on the North Side. "I love playing for the Cubs," he told the media. It was heartfelt, but in this business, sentiment doesn't always pay the bills.
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The Yankees are especially interesting here. They’ve been looking for infield stability for what feels like a decade, and Hoerner fits their profile perfectly. Would the Cubs actually pull the trigger? Only if they get a haul of pitching back.
Matt Shaw and the Outfield Experiment
If you’re Matt Shaw, you probably spent your weekend wondering where your locker is going to be. After starting at third for much of last year, he’s now officially blocked by Bregman.
Jed Hoyer dropped a bit of a bombshell recently, suggesting that Shaw could see time in the outfield in 2026. It’s a classic Craig Counsell move—taking a talented bat and finding a way to squeeze it into the lineup by any means necessary.
Why Shaw is "The Pivot"
- Versatility: He can play second, third, and potentially the corners.
- Trade Value: Teams are calling about him. A lot.
- The Insurance Policy: If the Cubs keep him, he’s the ultimate safety net for an injury to Bregman or Swanson.
But let’s be real. Shaw has zero professional experience in the outfield. Throwing a 24-year-old into the Wrigley Field sun in May because you have too many infielders is a gamble. If a team like the Mariners offers a front-line young starter for Shaw, Hoyer has to at least pick up the phone.
The Pitching Pivot: Did the Edward Cabrera Trade Change the Strategy?
For a while, the big rumor was that the Cubs were going to sell the farm for Tarik Skubal. While those dreams haven't totally died, the recent trade for Edward Cabrera suggests a different path.
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The Cubs sent Owen Caissie—their top-ranked power-hitting prospect—to Miami to get Cabrera. It was a "pay the piper" moment. Cabrera brings a high-velocity arm that the rotation desperately needed, especially with Justin Steele still working his way back from injury.
However, "not done" is the phrase of the week. During Bregman’s intro, Hoyer explicitly said the team is still looking for depth. With Shota Imanaga back on his qualifying offer and Cabrera in the mix, the rotation looks... okay. But is it "World Series" okay?
The rumor mill says no. Names like Tatsuya Imai were floated earlier this winter, and while that has cooled, the Cubs are still sniffing around the "tier two" trade market for starters. They need someone who can eat innings if the young arms like Cade Horton hit a wall.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Luxury Tax
There’s this idea that the Cubs have to trade Nico Hoerner to stay under the Luxury Tax.
That’s mostly nonsense.
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The Cubs are currently sitting roughly $40 million below the tax threshold. Yes, the Bregman deal was huge, but they have room. They aren't the Dodgers, but they aren't the A's either. If they trade Hoerner, it’s because they want a specific player in return—likely a high-end reliever or a controllable starter—not because Tom Ricketts is checking the couch cushions for change.
What’s Actually Going to Happen?
If you're looking for a prediction, here’s the reality: The Cubs are in "Win Now" mode. You don't sign a 31-year-old Alex Bregman to a five-year deal if you’re planning on a "retooling" year.
Trading Hoerner would be a massive risk. You’re essentially betting that a rookie (Shaw) can replace the defensive production of a Gold Glover while the team is trying to chase down the Brewers and Cardinals.
The most likely scenario? Hoyer holds onto both. He lets Shaw play the "super-utility" role, spell Dansby at short, and maybe take some reps in left field. Then, at the trade deadline in July, if the Cubs are 10 games up, they use their depth to go get a closer. If they’re struggling, that’s when the Hoerner trade talks get serious.
Actionable Next Steps for Cubs Fans:
- Watch the Spring Training Lineups: Keep a close eye on where Matt Shaw is taking fly balls. If he's exclusively in the infield by March, a trade is becoming more likely.
- Monitor the Yankees' Infield Health: If a contender loses a middle infielder in February, the pressure on the Cubs to move Hoerner will double overnight.
- Check the Bullpen Market: The Cubs signed guys like Phil Maton and Jacob Webb, but they still lack a "lights out" ninth-inning arm. Any trade involving their infield surplus will almost certainly aim to fix this.
The "big boxes" might be checked, but the Chicago front office is clearly still working the phones. In the world of Cubs MLB trade rumors, the quietest moments are usually right before the loudest moves.