If you’re checking your phone today wondering what price is crude oil, you’ll see two numbers that don’t look quite right if you haven't checked the markets since last year.
Right now, as of January 18, 2026, the global benchmark Brent Crude is sitting at $64.13, while the US-centric WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is hovering around $59.44.
Prices are basically doing a nervous dance. They aren't crashing, but they certainly aren't "mooning" either.
The $60 Tug-of-War
Markets are weird. Honestly, seeing WTI drop below $60 is a massive psychological hurdle for traders. Just a few days ago, on January 16, we saw a tiny bit of green, with WTI gaining about 0.42% to claw back toward $59.44. But don't let that small bump fool you into thinking the path is clear.
We are currently stuck in a "structural surplus." That’s just a fancy way for economists like Jeremy McCrea from BMO Capital Markets to say we’re basically swimming in the stuff.
While you might hear headlines about "surging oil," the reality on the ground is that supply is outstripping demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently dropped a bombshell report predicting a record global surplus of 4 million barrels per day for 2026.
That is an astronomical amount of extra oil.
Why the price keeps twitching
- Venezuela is a mess: The recent ouster of Nicolás Maduro and the rise of Delcy Rodríguez has everyone on edge. The US is basically "overseeing" the revenues now, and there’s talk of dumping 50 million barrels of blocked oil onto the market.
- Iran Protests: Mass government protests in Iran are creating "tail risks." If the Strait of Hormuz gets twitchy, prices spike. If things stay quiet, the surplus drags them down.
- The China Factor: China has been building its strategic reserves at a rate of about 1 million barrels per day. They’re basically the only thing keeping the floor from falling out.
What Price is Crude Oil Actually Telling Us?
When you ask what price is crude oil, you’re really asking about the health of the global economy.
It’s kinda fascinating. In the US, the "breakeven" cost for many shale drillers—the price they need just to stay in the black—is between $61 and $70. With WTI under $60, many of these companies are technically losing money on every new well they drill.
This creates a self-correcting loop. If the price stays this low, companies stop drilling. When they stop drilling, supply eventually drops, and the price goes back up.
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But right now, the non-OPEC+ producers (think Guyana, Brazil, and Canada) are pumping like there’s no tomorrow. Guyana, in particular, has become a juggernaut. Their production growth is so aggressive it’s almost single-handedly neutralizing the production cuts that Saudi Arabia and Russia have been trying to enforce.
OPEC+ is Hitting the Pause Button
In a move that surprised absolutely no one who follows the Middle East, OPEC+ confirmed they are pausing their planned production increases for the first quarter of 2026.
They’re scared.
If they add more oil to this market, Brent could easily slide toward $55. Saudi Arabia needs closer to $80 to balance its national budget. Being stuck at $64 is a painful reality for them.
The Gas Pump Reality
For the rest of us who aren't trading futures in a glass tower, this is actually decent news.
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Lower crude prices usually lead to cheaper RBOB gasoline. Right now, gasoline futures are around $1.77 to $1.78. If you’re seeing slightly higher prices at your local station, it’s likely due to "crack spreads"—the cost of refining that crude into the stuff that goes in your tank.
Refined products are actually outperforming raw crude right now. Because of sanctions on Russian refineries and disruptions in the Middle East, we have plenty of oil, but not enough "kitchens" to cook it in.
What Most People Get Wrong About Oil Prices
People tend to think a war in the Middle East automatically means $100 oil.
That hasn't been true for a while.
The "geopolitical risk premium" is shrinking. Traders have become cynical. They see the 4-million-barrel surplus coming and realize that even if a tanker gets stopped in the Red Sea, there is so much inventory in OECD nations that the world won't run out.
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Inventories are at a 46-month high. We have nearly 8 billion barrels in storage globally.
Where Do We Go From Here?
If you’re trying to plan for the rest of 2026, keep your eyes on the $60 WTI mark.
If it stays below that for the next three months, expect to see US oil companies start cutting their budgets. This could lead to a "supply shock" later in the year, but for now, the bears are in control.
Actionable Insights for Navigating 2026:
- Monitor the Brent-WTI Spread: If the gap between the two widens beyond $5, it usually means there’s a bottleneck in US transport or a massive spike in international shipping risk.
- Watch the "Big 8" of OPEC+: Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman have committed to keeping their production flat through March. If any of them "cheat" and pump more, the price will tank.
- Refinery Margins Matter: If you see gas prices staying high while crude stays low, the problem isn't the oil—it’s the lack of refining capacity. Look at companies like Valero or Marathon as indicators.
- Stress Test Your Portfolios: If you hold energy stocks, check their breakeven points. If they need $70 oil to be profitable and the price is $59, they are dividend-cut risks.
Prices are currently range-bound between $55 and $70. Barring a major escalation in the Iran protests or a complete collapse of the Venezuelan interim government, expect more of the same sideways movement. The "era of cheap oil" might be back, at least for the first half of 2026.