If you were watching the tickers on Friday, you saw a bit of a nail-biter. Crude oil didn't just sit still. It clawed back some ground after a pretty rough week. Honestly, it’s been a rollercoaster for anyone holding energy positions.
By the time the final bells rang on January 16, 2026—setting the stage for where things stand this Saturday, January 17—the numbers were officially in. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, finished at $59.44 per barrel. That's a modest gain of 25 cents, or about 0.42%. Meanwhile, across the pond, Brent crude settled at $64.13, up 37 cents.
It wasn't a massive explosion in price, but it mattered. Why? Because the market is staring down a long three-day holiday weekend in the US for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. Traders hate going into a long break "short" when the world feels this volatile.
What Really Happened with Crude Oil Today?
The story behind what did crude oil close at today isn't just about the 25-cent tick. It’s about fear and relief fighting for the steering wheel. Earlier in the week, prices were actually much higher. We saw a multi-month peak because everyone was terrified of a US military strike on Iran.
Then, things cooled.
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President Trump signaled that the "military option" wasn't the immediate plan. This basically sucked the "war premium" right out of the room. On Thursday, prices fell more than 4%. Friday’s small bounce was mostly just people covering their tracks. You don’t want to be the person who sold oil on Friday afternoon only to wake up Monday morning to news of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iran and Venezuela Tug-of-War
It’s kinda wild how much these two countries are dictating your gas prices right now. On one hand, you've got Iran. Nationwide protests there have the government on edge. If things get bloodier, or if the US Navy's carrier strike group—the USS Abraham Lincoln—reaches the Persian Gulf and sparks a confrontation, $60 oil will look like a bargain.
On the other hand, there’s Venezuela.
There is a lot of chatter about Venezuelan crude finally hitting the global market in a big way. Some analysts, like Phil Flynn from Price Futures Group, have noted that the "tidal wave" of Venezuelan oil hasn't actually arrived yet. But the threat of that supply is keeping a lid on prices. It’s like a giant reservoir of oil is just waiting for the tap to be turned, and that makes traders nervous about betting too big on a price spike.
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Why $60 is the New Battleground
Technically speaking, WTI is in a bit of a "no man's land." For most of the week, it struggled to stay above the $61 mark. When it failed to hold that level, the technical crowd got bearish.
- Resistance: Firm at $60.37.
- Support: Immediate floor at $54.81.
- The Trend: We're currently in a neutral-to-bearish short-term outlook.
Basically, the world is making too much oil. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently dropped their Short-Term Energy Outlook. They’re predicting that global production will outpace demand by about 1.4 million barrels per day this year. When there’s more stuff than people need, prices usually go down. That’s why the EIA thinks Brent will average only $56 for the whole of 2026.
Inventory Surprises
Another thing that caught people off guard this week was the US inventory report. Commercial crude stocks jumped by 3.4 million barrels. That’s a lot of extra oil sitting in tanks. It reminded everyone that despite the scary headlines in the Middle East, there is plenty of physical oil available.
Real-World Impact: What This Means for You
You're probably wondering if this translates to the pump. Generally, yes, but with a lag. If crude stays in the high $50s, you can expect retail gasoline to hover around $2.90 to $3.10 a gallon in most of the US.
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But keep an eye on the "war premium."
BloombergNEF estimates that if Iran’s exports were totally cut off, Brent could scream up to $91 by the end of the year. We aren't there yet. Right now, the market only has about $4 of "fear money" baked into the price. It’s a delicate balance.
Actionable Insights for the Week Ahead
The market is closed Monday for the holiday, but the world isn't. If you’re tracking energy, here’s what you should be doing:
- Watch the Strait of Hormuz: Any news of Iranian naval maneuvers or "harassment" of tankers will send that $59.44 price toward $65 overnight.
- Monitor the USD: Oil is priced in dollars. If the dollar stays strong, it puts downward pressure on oil.
- Don't ignore the "Throwback": Technical traders are looking for WTI to close back above the "Pivot" of $57.69 to prove that this week’s floor is real. If it slips below $55, the slide could get ugly fast.
Crude oil finished the week with a tiny sigh of relief, but the underlying tension hasn't gone anywhere. We’re essentially waiting for the next headline to decide if $60 is a ceiling or a floor.
Watch the Sunday night futures open. That’s when the real reaction to any weekend news will hit the screen. Keep your eyes on the headlines coming out of Tehran and Caracas; they are the true market makers right now.