It is mid-January 2026, and if you're a Dallas Cowboys fan, you're probably staring at the draft board with a mix of genuine hope and that familiar, nagging dread. The season just wrapped up, and the dust has settled on a year that felt like a rollercoaster with a few too many loose bolts. But there is a massive silver lining this time around.
Dallas actually has two picks in the top 20.
Thanks to the Micah Parsons trade with Green Bay—a move that still sparks heated debates at every sports bar in Texas—the Cowboys own the No. 12 and No. 20 overall selections in the 2026 NFL Draft. It's the first time they’ve had two swings in the first round since 2008. If you remember that year, they took Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins. One was electric until the injuries piled up; the other was a Pro Bowler who just sort of faded.
Honestly, the history of cowboys first round draft picks is basically a case study in "boom or bust." For every Micah Parsons, there is a Taco Charlton. For every Zack Martin, there is a Mazi Smith. You just never know which Jerry Jones is going to show up in the war room: the one who listens to the scouts or the one who falls in love with a "project" player who has "elite traits" but can't find the quarterback.
Why the 2026 Draft Hits Different
The 2025 season was... rough. Let's be real. The defense looked like it was playing in slow motion at times under Matt Eberflus, who is now looking for work. With the No. 12 and No. 20 picks, the Cowboys aren't just looking for "best player available." They’re looking for a total identity shift.
Most draft analysts, like Dane Brugler, are pointing toward a defensive overhaul. Names like Keldric Faulk from Auburn and Mansoor Delane out of LSU are being linked to Dallas in almost every mock draft you see on Google Discover. It makes sense. The pass defense was historically bad last year, ranking dead last in some metrics.
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The Micah Parsons Void
You can't talk about current draft needs without acknowledging the elephant in the room: the trade. Moving Parsons to the Packers was the "nuclear option." It brought back a haul of picks, including that 20th overall selection this year, but it left a crater in the pass rush.
Now, the Cowboys are desperate for an edge rusher who can actually hold the edge. Donovan Ezeiruaku had a solid rookie year, but he can't do it alone. If they take Faulk at 12, they're basically trying to replace Parsons' production with a "stouter" run defender. It’s a gamble. It's always a gamble with Jerry.
Looking Back at Recent Cowboys First Round Draft Picks
To understand where they’re going, you’ve gotta look at where they’ve been. The last few years have been a wild ride of "O-line or bust."
- 2025: Tyler Booker (G, Alabama) - Pick 12
They took Booker to fill the hole left by Zack Martin’s retirement. Booker is a "violence" guy. He plays angry. People called him a safe pick, and so far, he’s lived up to it. He’s the kind of guy who doesn't get talked about on highlights because he’s just doing his job. - 2024: Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma) - Pick 29
Guyton was the ultimate "project." He was raw. He had a lot of penalties—like, a lot—early on. But towards the end of 2025, something clicked. He stopped being a turnstile and started looking like a legitimate blindside protector. - 2023: Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan) - Pick 26
This is the one that still hurts. Mazi hasn't turned into the anchor everyone hoped for. In the world of cowboys first round draft picks, he’s currently leaning toward the "disappointment" category, though some still hold out hope for a late breakout.
The trend is pretty clear: when Dallas sticks to the trenches (the "Tylers"), they usually win. When they try to get cute with developmental defensive tackles or "reach" picks, things get messy.
The Strategy Nobody Talks About
Everyone focuses on the stars, but the Cowboys' real secret sauce—and their biggest flaw—is "positional value." Jerry Jones loves a bargain, but he also loves a splash.
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In 1991, they picked Russell Maryland No. 1 overall not necessarily because he was the best player in the world, but because they could get him signed to a cheaper deal than Rocket Ismail. That kind of "business first" thinking still permeates the Star in Frisco.
Right now, the front office is debating whether to use those two 2026 picks on "safe" defensive ends or to move up for a franchise-altering talent. There's a rumor they might package 12 and 20 to jump into the top five. Why? Because they need a game-changer. A "blue-chip" prospect that makes the fan base forget about the Parsons trade.
The "All-Pro" Hit Rate
Some fans on Reddit have been arguing that the Cowboys have a 70% hit rate on first-rounders. That’s... optimistic. If you look at the last 15 years, it's closer to 40% if you're talking about true All-Pros.
- Dez Bryant (Win)
- Tyron Smith (Win)
- Zack Martin (Massive Win)
- Taco Charlton (Big Loss)
- Morris Claiborne (Loss)
It’s not as perfect as the marketing makes it sound.
What Needs to Happen in April
If you're looking for actionable insights on how this draft will go, keep an eye on the defensive coordinator hire. Whoever takes over from Eberflus will dictate these picks.
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If they go with a high-pressure 4-3 system, expect an edge rusher at 12. If they decide to fix the secondary first—because Trevon Diggs has been, let's be honest, wildly inconsistent lately—then a cornerback like Mansoor Delane at 20 is a lock.
The real "smart money" move? Trade down from 20. The Cowboys don't have another pick until the fourth round. That's a huge gap. Trading 20 for a late first and a third-round pick would be the "Stephen Jones" move. It’s boring, but it builds depth.
Final takeaway for the 2026 cycle:
The Cowboys are at a crossroads. They have the capital to fix the defense in one night. But they have to stop drafting for "potential" and start drafting for "production."
Practical Next Steps for Fans:
- Watch the Senior Bowl: Keep a close eye on Keldric Faulk and other edge rushers. Dallas is going to be all over them.
- Monitor the Mock Drafts: When Dane Brugler releases his "Beast" guide in April, see where he ranks the interior defensive linemen. If Dallas skips a top-tier DT again, expect the run defense to struggle in 2026 too.
- Check the Compensatory Picks: Dallas is banking on some extra mid-round help, which might change how aggressive they are at No. 20.
The 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh is going to define the next five years of Cowboys football. No pressure, Jerry.