It is January 2026. If you walked into a coffee shop today and asked the person next to you if Donald Trump could be impeached a third time, you’d probably get a very long, very exhausted sigh. Or a twenty-minute lecture.
Honestly, the "I-word" has become part of the background noise of American life. But as we sit here in the middle of his second term, the question isn't just a hypothetical "what if" anymore. With Senator Chris Murphy recently throwing around allegations of "stealing from the American people" and House Democrats like Shri Thanedar and Al Green already filing resolutions, the gears are technically turning.
Can it actually happen? Yeah, it could. Will it? That’s where things get messy.
The Current State of Play: Could Trump Be Impeached in 2026?
Right now, the short answer is: No, not today.
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The math just doesn't work. To impeach a president, you need a simple majority in the House of Representatives. Currently, the Republicans hold the gavel. They aren't exactly lining up to put their own guy on trial. Just this past December, Representative Al Green tried to push articles of impeachment through, and they went nowhere. Even some Democrats voted “present” because they knew the timing was off.
But politics moves fast. We are heading into the 2026 midterm elections. If the House flips blue in November, the conversation changes overnight. Senator Murphy has already hinted that any real movement toward a third impeachment depends entirely on Democrats regaining control.
Why people are talking about it now
It’s not just the "same old" complaints. The 2026 chatter is focused on some very specific, very fresh allegations:
- The Qatar Private Jet: There’s a lot of heat regarding a luxury jet provided by Qatar to replace Air Force One. Critics are screaming "Emoluments Clause" from the rooftops.
- Crypto and National Security: Senator Murphy has alleged that the President traded national security info for foreign investment tied to a family-linked cryptocurrency venture.
- Executive Overreach: Trump has signed over 225 executive orders in just one year—a record pace that hasn’t been seen since FDR. Some of these, particularly regarding mass deportations and dismantling federal agencies like the FMCS, are being fought in the courts right now.
What the Constitution Actually Says (And Doesn't Say)
A lot of folks think impeachment is a criminal trial. It’s not. It’s a political process that looks like a trial.
Under Article II, Section 4, a president can be removed for "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." The phrase "high crimes and misdemeanors" is famously vague. It basically means whatever the House of Representatives decides it means at that moment.
The Two-Step Dance
- The House Impeaches: They act like a grand jury. If a majority votes "yes" on any article, the president is officially "impeached." This has happened to Trump twice already (2019 and 2021).
- The Senate Tries: This is the brick wall. You need a two-thirds majority (67 votes) to actually convict and remove someone. In our hyper-polarized 2026 climate, getting 67 senators to agree on what color the sky is is hard enough, let alone removing a sitting president.
The "After Office" Legal Debate
There’s a weird niche question that keeps popping up: Could he be impeached after he leaves office in 2029 to prevent him from running for anything else?
Legal scholars like Michael Luttig argue that once you’re an "ex," the Constitution’s removal power is moot. You can't fire someone who already quit or finished their shift. However, others point to the 1876 impeachment of Secretary of War William Belknap, who was impeached after he resigned. The Senate decided they still had jurisdiction.
If Trump were to be impeached and convicted late in his term, the Senate could also vote for "disqualification," meaning he could never hold federal office again. But again—67 votes. That’s the magic, nearly impossible number.
Real-World Hurdles and High Stakes
Let’s be real for a second. Impeachment is exhausting for the country.
Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been notably cautious lately, suggesting that while the conduct is questionable, it might not have hit that "impeachable" threshold yet. She knows the political cost. If the Democrats push for a third impeachment without a "smoking gun" that even some Republicans can't ignore, it might backfire in the 2026 midterms.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is already buried in Trump-related cases. From tariff disputes to the legality of firing the Federal Reserve chair, the judicial branch is doing most of the heavy lifting right now. Many moderates argue that the courts, not impeachment, are the proper venue for checking executive power in 2026.
What Happens Next?
If you're tracking whether could trump be impeached, keep your eyes on two specific dates:
- November 3, 2026: If Democrats win the House, expect articles of impeachment to be drafted by January 2027.
- The Supreme Court Rulings (Spring 2026): If the Court rules that the President’s use of the Alien Enemies Act or his crypto-related dealings are unconstitutional, it provides the "high crimes" fuel the House needs.
Actionable Insights for the Informed Voter:
Don't just read the headlines. If you want to know if an impeachment is actually coming, watch the "privileged resolutions" in the House. Most are symbolic. But if the Judiciary Committee starts holding formal hearings on the Qatar jet or the crypto-national security link, that’s when it becomes a real legal threat rather than just political theater.
Stay tuned to the 9th Circuit and the District Court of D.C. dockets; that's where the "evidence" for any future impeachment is currently being litigated.