You’ve seen the postcards. Crystal blue water, white sand, and a sun so bright it looks like it was photoshopped into the sky. But honestly, if you’re planning a trip to the southern edge of the Yucatán Peninsula, you need to know that the Costa Maya weather forecast isn't always just "sunny and 85."
It's a tropical beast. It changes its mind every twenty minutes. One second you’re sipping a margarita in Mahahual, and the next, a "Norte" wind kicks up and you’re looking for a hoodie. If you're coming here in January 2026, you're looking at some pretty specific vibes.
The Right Now: January 16, 2026
Right now in Costa Maya, it's actually kinda chilly for the tropics. We're looking at a current temperature of 63°F. Yeah, you read that right. It’s nighttime, mostly cloudy, and there’s a light north wind blowing at about 7 mph. Humidity is sitting at 77%, which is standard for the Caribbean, but without the sun beating down, it just feels like a crisp, cool evening.
Don’t let that 63 degrees scare you off, though. Today, Friday, January 16, is hitting a high of 79°F. It’s mostly sunny, and the humidity is actually quite low for this region—around 60%. Basically, it’s the perfect day to walk the malecón (the boardwalk) without sweating through your shirt.
What's Coming This Week?
If you're looking at the Costa Maya weather forecast for the next few days, keep your umbrella handy. It’s not going to be a washout, but it’s definitely not a total sun-fest either.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Expect some drama. We’ve got thunderstorms in the forecast with a high of 79°F. There’s a 45% chance of rain during the day and night.
- Sunday, Jan 18: This is the wet one. The chance of light rain jumps to 75% during the day. However, it clears up at night, and the low drops back down to 65°F.
- The Rest of the Week: Temperatures stay stable. Highs will hover between 76°F and 81°F. It’s a bit of a mixed bag of light rain and "scattered thunderstorms" until we hit next weekend.
By Saturday, January 24, the sun finally decides to play nice again. We’re looking at a beautiful sunny day with a high of 83°F. That’s the Costa Maya everyone expects.
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The Seasons of Costa Maya (And Why They Matter)
Most people think there are four seasons here. There aren't. There are basically two: Dry and Wet.
The dry season is your "High Season." It runs from November to April. This is when the humidity drops, the skies turn that impossible shade of blue, and the "Norte" winds come down from the north to keep things cool. Experts like those at The Native Choice point out that this is the prime time for exploring ruins like Chacchoben or Kohunlich because you won't melt into a puddle while climbing the stone steps.
Then you’ve got the wet season, which is also hurricane season. It starts in May and drags on through November.
The Hurricane Elephant in the Room
Let's talk about the big H. Hurricane season officially peaks between August and October. September is statistically the wettest month, often seeing over 8 inches of rain.
But here’s the thing: major hits are rare. In the last 30 years, only a couple of big ones have really made landfall right here. Usually, "rainy season" just means a 20-minute afternoon deluge that cools everything off, followed by more sun. If you’re a budget traveler, this is actually the best time to go. Hotels are cheaper, the beaches aren't packed with cruise ship passengers, and the water is at its warmest—peaking at around 85°F in August.
Diving and Snorkeling: The Wind Factor
If you’re coming to Costa Maya to see the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef, the wind is more important than the rain.
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March is famously the windiest month. While the sun is out, the "choppy" water can ruin visibility for snorkelers. For the best underwater clarity, you want those calm, glass-like days in May or November. According to reports from Buoyweather, January often sees light northeast winds (around 7-10 mph), which keeps the sea relatively smooth for the dive boats heading out from Mahahual.
Actionable Tips for Your Trip
Stop checking the weather app every hour. It’s going to say "chance of rain" every single day. That’s just how the tropics work. Instead, do this:
- Pack a light layer: If you’re visiting in December or January, those 60-degree nights feel cold when you’ve been in the sun all day. A light windbreaker is a lifesaver.
- Morning is King: In the rainy season, the storms almost always hit in the late afternoon. Get your snorkeling or ruin-climbing done by 11:00 AM.
- Check the "Nortes": If a cold front is coming down from the US or Canada, the port might close. If you're on a cruise, this means you might miss the stop entirely. Keep an eye on the wind direction—North or Northwest winds are the ones that cause trouble for the pier.
- Biodegradable Sunscreen only: The reef here is fragile. Even on cloudy days (like the ones predicted for this Sunday), the UV index in Costa Maya stays around 3 to 5. You will get burned if you aren't careful.
Basically, Costa Maya is beautiful regardless of the clouds. Just embrace the humidity, grab a rain poncho if the forecast looks dicey, and remember that even a "chilly" 63-degree night here is better than a blizzard back home.
Check the local port schedule before you head to the beach. If there are three mega-ships in town, the weather won't matter as much as the crowds will. Plan your trip to the lost Mayan ruins on the days when the port is quietest for the best experience.