If you’re checking the Coos Bay weather forecast 10 day outlook because you’re planning a weekend crabbing trip or just trying to time your grocery run between downpours, I’ve got some news for you. Most of those "10-day" charts you see on your phone are basically just educated guesses once you get past day four.
Honestly, the Oregon Coast is a beast of its own.
Right now, as we sit in the middle of January 2026, the atmosphere is doing that weird La Niña dance. We just had a magnitude 6.0 earthquake rattle the ocean floor about 180 miles off the coast on January 15, and while that didn't bring a tsunami, it certainly reminds everyone here that the Pacific is in charge.
The Real Deal on the Next 10 Days
Let's look at the actual numbers. For the week of January 17 through January 26, 2026, Coos Bay is seeing a bit of a "split" personality.
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The first half of this window is surprisingly decent. You’ve got highs hovering around 58°F to 60°F—which is actually pretty warm for January—and some legitimate sunshine on Saturday and Monday. If you've lived here long enough, you know that a sunny Monday in January is basically a local holiday.
But then, the hammer drops.
By Thursday, January 22, the "chance of rain" starts creeping back up to that inevitable 40-50% range. In Coos Bay, a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean it might rain. It means it’s probably going to drizzle for three hours, stop just long enough to make you think it's safe to go outside without a shell, and then soak you the second you’re a mile from your car.
Why 10-Day Forecasts Are Kinda Like Liars
I spoke with a few folks who track the PNW systems, and they all say the same thing: the "Model Divergence" is real.
See, the National Weather Service (NWS) is great, but they’ll be the first to tell you that beyond 96 hours, the "certainty" of a forecast drops off a cliff. For Coos Bay, we rely on the GFS (Global Forecast System) and the European models. When they agree? Great. When they don't? You get a 10-day forecast that changes every six hours.
- Days 1-3: High confidence. If it says sun, pack the sunglasses.
- Days 4-7: Moderate confidence. We see the storm systems moving in, but we don't know if they'll hit Coos Bay or slide north toward Newport.
- Days 8-10: Purely "climatological." The computer is basically saying, "Historically, it rains this time of year, so let's put a cloud icon there."
The La Niña Factor in 2026
We are currently in a weak La Niña cycle. Usually, that means cooler and wetter for the Pacific Northwest. However, January 2026 has been a bit of an outlier. While the Cascades are getting absolutely hammered with snow—over two feet in some passes just last week—the coast has been slightly "milder" than the historical average of 52°F.
Humidity is sticking around 83%. That’s the kind of damp that gets into your bones even if it’s not actually raining.
If you're looking at the Coos Bay weather forecast 10 day specifically for travel, keep an eye on the wind. Winter gusts here aren't just "breezes." We’re talking 15-20 mph averages with gusts that can hit 35 mph near the jetties.
How to Actually Use This Info
Don't just look at the little icons. Look at the "Discussion" section if you're using the NWS site. They use words like "uncertainty" and "atmospheric river" which give you a much better vibe of what's coming than a yellow sun emoji.
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- Check the Barometer: If you see the pressure dropping fast, the rain is coming sooner than the 10-day forecast suggests.
- The "Socks" Rule: Always pack two more pairs than you think you need. Even "waterproof" boots lose to Coos Bay puddles eventually.
- Watch the Fog: January is prime time for patchy dense fog, especially on Monday and Tuesday nights. If you're driving Highway 101, that 10-day forecast won't tell you that visibility might drop to 50 feet in the dips.
Basically, the next few days are your window. Get your hiking done at Shore Acres or Cape Arago now. By next weekend (January 24-25), the rain probability stays pegged at 40%, and the highs will dip back down into the high 40s.
It's classic Oregon coast stuff. Cold, damp, and perfectly moody.
Actionable Next Steps:
Keep a close eye on the "Hourly" forecast rather than the 10-day summary starting Wednesday night. If the wind shifts to the Southwest, expect the rain to arrive earlier than the predicted Thursday morning window. For those heading toward the mountains, check the TripCheck cameras specifically for the passes, as the coastal "mild" weather will not follow you inland.