The black smoke hadn't even cleared from the Roman sky before the rumors started. You've probably heard the whispers. People like to think the Vatican is this perfectly oiled machine, but the reality of the conclave votes so far and the election of Pope Leo XIV in May 2025 was anything but predictable. It was messy. It was tense. And honestly, it changed the way the Church looks at itself.
If you’re looking for a simple tally of numbers, you might be disappointed. Conclaves are notoriously secret. Like, "we will excommunicate you if you talk" secret. But we know enough from the patterns, the smoke, and the subsequent leaks to piece together exactly how a Chicago-born Cardinal ended up as the first American Pope.
👉 See also: The Truth About the Laura Benson Harvard Accident Rumors
The First Ballot: A Shot Across the Bow
When the 133 cardinal electors filed into the Sistine Chapel on May 7, 2025, the air was thick. Not just with incense, but with the weight of 12 years of Pope Francis’s legacy. The first vote is always a "feeling out" process. No one expects a winner.
Basically, the first round of conclave votes so far showed a deeply divided College.
The traditional "papabili"—those front-runners like Cardinal Pietro Parolin or Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle—didn't run away with it. Instead, the ballots were scattered. It was a classic "veto" vote. The conservatives blocked the ultra-progressives, and the progressives returned the favor. By the time the first wisps of black smoke drifted out of the chimney at 7:04 PM, the message was clear: this wasn't going to be a coronation.
Why the "Two-Thirds" Rule Changed Everything
To win, a candidate needs 89 votes. That’s two-thirds of the 133 electors.
In the 2025 conclave, the math was a nightmare. Unlike 2013, where Jorge Mario Bergoglio emerged as a clear alternative to the establishment, 2025 had too many "factions." You had the "Continuity" group who wanted someone exactly like Francis. Then you had the "Reformers" who wanted a Curia cleanup. And don't forget the "Global South" bloc, who rightly argued that the future of the Church isn't in Europe.
✨ Don't miss: Is Your Voting History Public? Here’s What the Government Actually Tracks
- Day 1: One vote. Result: Black smoke.
- Day 2: Four votes total. No consensus.
- The Turning Point: By the third ballot on Day 2, names like Robert Francis Prevost started gaining steam.
Prevost was an interesting "middle ground" candidate. He’s American but spent decades in Peru. He spoke the language of the Curia but had the "smell of the sheep," as Francis used to say.
Conclave Votes So Far: The Leo XIV Surge
By the morning of May 8, 2025, the momentum shifted. You could almost feel it in St. Peter's Square. The fourth ballot was the one.
When the cardinals wrote their names on those rectangular pieces of paper—Eligo in summum pontificem—they weren't just picking a man. They were picking a direction. Reports suggest that a significant bloc of Latin American and North American cardinals consolidated their support. They realized that a "stalemate" would only make the Church look weak.
Prevost crossed the 89-vote threshold on that fourth ballot. He took the name Leo XIV.
It was a fast conclave by historical standards, but the intensity was off the charts. Some experts, like those at The Tablet or Vatican Insider, had predicted a week-long slog. They were wrong. The cardinals wanted to show unity before the world moved on.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Voting Process
There’s this myth that the Holy Spirit just "descends" and everyone magically agrees.
🔗 Read more: Colorado 2024 Ballot Results: What Most People Get Wrong
Kinda. But there's also a lot of politics.
Cardinals talk in the hallways of the Domus Sanctae Marthae (the hotel where they stay). They trade concerns. "Will he keep the Latin Mass restrictions?" "Can he fix the Vatican bank?" These conversations happen over pasta and wine, not just under the frescoes of the Sistine Chapel. The conclave votes so far are the end result of hours of intense, often exhausted, human negotiation.
The 2026 Reality: A New Way of Leading
Fast forward to right now, January 2026. Pope Leo XIV just finished his first "Extraordinary Consistory." He brought 170 cardinals to Rome on January 7-8.
Why does this matter? Because he’s actually listening to the guys who voted for him—and the ones who didn't. During the 2025 conclave, a lot of cardinals complained they didn't even know each other. Francis hadn't called a full meeting in years. Leo XIV is changing that. He’s turning the College of Cardinals back into a real advisory board, not just a group that meets for funerals and elections.
Actionable Insights for Church Watchers
If you're following the trajectory of the papacy following the conclave votes so far, keep your eyes on these three things:
- The "Annual" Consistory: Leo XIV has signaled he wants to meet with all cardinals every year. This is a massive shift in power back to the College.
- The "American" Influence: Don't expect a US-centric Church, but expect a more "managerial" approach to the Vatican bureaucracy.
- Synodality vs. Tradition: Leo is trying to bridge the gap. He calls the Second Vatican Council his "guiding star," which keeps the progressives happy, but he’s also more open to dialogue with traditionalists than his predecessor was.
The 2025 election wasn't just about picking a new guy in white. It was a referendum on how the Church survives the 21st century. The votes might be secret, but the results are now playing out in the halls of the Vatican every single day.