It’s the stock every Aussie’s grandmother seems to own, and for a long time, bet against it at your own peril. But right now, something feels different about the Commonwealth Bank share price. If you’ve been watching the charts lately—especially as we’ve kicked off 2026—you’ve probably noticed the "Big Blue" isn't exactly dancing to the same beat as its rivals.
Honestly, the numbers are a bit of a head-scratcher. Just a couple of days ago, on January 14, 2026, we saw the share price hovering around the $154.08 mark. That might sound high compared to a few years back, but it’s been a rough start to the year. The stock has actually slipped about 3.79% since the calendar flipped to January. Meanwhile, its cousins like National Australia Bank (NAB) and ANZ have been holding their ground or even creeping up.
The Elephant in the Room: The "CBA Premium"
Why is everyone so obsessed with whether CBA is "too expensive"? Basically, it comes down to a concept called the premium valuation. For years, investors have been happy to pay a massive markup for CBA because it’s seen as the gold standard of Australian banking.
But even gold can get too pricey. Right now, analysts at Morgan Stanley and Morningstar are pointing to a pretty glaring gap. CBA is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 26x. To put that in perspective, many of its peers are much lower. When you're paying that much of a premium, there’s zero room for error. If the bank doesn't deliver a "perfect" result, the market tends to get grumpy. Fast.
What Actually Happened in 2025?
To understand where we are today, we have to look at the fiscal year 2025 results that dropped back in August. CBA posted a cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of $10.3 billion. That’s a massive number, sure, but it was basically "flat" compared to previous halves.
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The market’s reaction back then was—frankly—brutal. The share price tanked over 5% in a single day. Why? Because while the profit was high, the costs were climbing. CEO Matt Comyn has been pouring money into technology. We’re talking about an investment spend of $2.3 billion, up 14% from the previous year. He’s hiring thousands of IT engineers and leaning hard into AI partnerships with OpenAI to stay ahead. It’s a smart long-term move, but shareholders often have the patience of a toddler. They want the cash now, not the "AI-driven efficiency" three years from now.
The Dividend Reality Check
Let's talk about the real reason people hold this stock: the dividends. If you’re looking for income, CBA is still a heavyweight, but the "yield" isn't as fat as it used to be because the share price has climbed so high.
- Total 2025 Dividend: $4.85 per share (fully franked).
- Next Expected Payment: March 30, 2026.
- Ex-Dividend Date: February 18, 2026.
- Current Yield: Roughly 3.1% to 3.2%.
Compare that to Westpac or ANZ, where you might see yields closer to 5% or 6%. You’re basically accepting a lower "paycheck" in exchange for the perceived safety of the CBA brand. It’s the "sleep at night" factor.
Why the Price is Wobbling Right Now
It’s not just about the bank itself; it’s the world we’re living in. As of mid-January 2026, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is still keeping everyone on their toes. Inflation is proving to be "stickier" than we’d like. While there’s talk of rate cuts eventually, the timing keeps getting pushed back.
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When interest rates stay high, banks can make more money on the "spread" (the difference between what they charge on loans and what they pay on deposits). But there’s a flip side. High rates make it harder for people to pay their mortgages. While CBA’s arrears (people falling behind on payments) have actually been surprisingly stable, the fear of a slowdown is enough to keep the Commonwealth Bank share price under pressure.
The Competition is Getting Aggressive
CBA used to be the undisputed king of mortgages. But lately, NAB and Westpac have been sharpened their knives. They’ve been fighting tooth and nail for market share, often offering better rates that eat into CBA’s margins.
The bank’s net interest margin (NIM) sat around 2.08% in the last major report. Maintaining that number is getting harder when every other bank is trying to lure your customers away with cashback offers or lower introductory rates.
What Most People Get Wrong
There's a common myth that "CBA is too big to fail, so it's always a buy."
While the first part might be true in a regulatory sense, the second part isn't. A great company can be a terrible investment if you buy it at the wrong price.
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Investors like Nathan Bell from Intelligent Investor have often cautioned that when a bank trades at 4 times its book value (which CBA has flirted with), the gravity of valuation usually pulls it back down. We’re seeing a bit of that "valuation reset" right now. The stock is currently rated as a "Sell" or "Underweight" by several major brokers who think the price needs to drop toward the $130 - $140 range to represent fair value.
Looking Ahead: The 2026 Outlook
So, what’s the play? If you’re holding CBA, you’re likely in it for the long haul and the franking credits. But if you’re looking to "get in" now, you’re entering at a time of high volatility.
The technical indicators are a bit messy. The stock is currently trading below its short-term moving averages, which usually signals more weakness ahead. However, it’s found some "support" (a floor where buyers step in) around the $153 level. If it breaks below that, we could see a slide toward $148 pretty quickly.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you are watching the Commonwealth Bank share price with an eye on your portfolio, here are a few things to actually do:
- Check your weighting: Because CBA is such a huge part of the ASX 200, if you own an index fund and individual CBA shares, you might be way more exposed to this one company than you realize.
- Watch the February 18 Ex-Dividend date: If you want that next dividend, you need to own the shares before this date. Just remember, the share price typically drops by the amount of the dividend on the day it goes "ex."
- Monitor the NIM: When the half-year results come out in February 2026, ignore the headline profit for a second and look at the "Net Interest Margin." If that’s shrinking, the "CBA Premium" might continue to erode.
- Reinvest or Cash Out: Decide if you’re using the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP). CBA usually offers this with no discount, meaning you’re just buying more shares at the market price. If you think the stock is overvalued, taking the cash might be the smarter move right now.
The bottom line is that CBA is a powerhouse, but it's currently a powerhouse that's priced for perfection in an imperfect economy. Keeping an eye on those margin pressures and the RBA's next move will be the key to navigating the next few months of price action.