Let's be real: talking about the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock price in 2026 feels a bit like discussing the weather in Melbourne. It's unpredictable, everyone has an opinion, and just when you think you’ve got it figured out, the wind shifts.
CBA isn't just a bank. For most Aussie investors, it’s the sun that the rest of the ASX 200 revolves around. It’s the "can't fail" blue chip that occupies the top spot in almost every grandma’s portfolio and every major super fund. But lately, things have been... well, interesting.
The current state of play
As of mid-January 2026, the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock price is hovering around the $154.30 mark.
It’s been a choppy start to the year. We saw it open 2026 at about $160.60, but it took a bit of a tumble in the first week, sliding down toward $152 before finding some support. If you’re looking at the 52-week range, we’re sitting somewhere in the middle. The stock hit a massive high of **$192.00** back in 2025, while the low point was down near $140.21.
Basically, it’s a tug-of-war. On one side, you’ve got the die-hard "CBA is king" crowd. On the other, you’ve got analysts—honestly, pretty much all of them—screaming that the stock is way too expensive.
Why is it so expensive?
The "CBA Premium" is a very real thing.
🔗 Read more: Is Today a Holiday for the Stock Market? What You Need to Know Before the Opening Bell
Right now, CBA is trading at a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 25.5x. To put that into perspective, the global average for banks is usually way lower, often in the low teens. Even its local rivals like NAB and Westpac usually trade at a significant discount compared to CBA.
Why do people pay it?
- Tech Dominance: CBA spends more on technology than some small countries spend on their military. Their app isn't just a banking tool; it’s an ecosystem.
- The "Safe Haven" Effect: When the world gets weird—like the tariff scares and tech volatility we've seen throughout 2025—investors run to what they know.
- Market Weight: Because it's so big (we’re talking a market cap of over $250 billion), index funds have to buy it. This creates a floor for the price that fundamental math sometimes struggles to explain.
The Mortgage Headache
Here is where it gets kind of sticky. Just this week, CBA hiked its fixed home loan rates by as much as 0.70 percentage points. Some three-year rates are now north of 6%.
Now, if you're a shareholder, you might think, "Great! Higher rates mean more profit." Not necessarily. While higher rates can help the Net Interest Margin (NIM), they also squeeze the borrower. If the RBA keeps rates higher for longer to fight sticky inflation, the risk of bad debts starts to crawl up.
In the first quarter of FY26, CBA's cash net profit only grew by about 2%. That’s not exactly "to the moon" territory. It’s steady, sure, but is it $150-a-share steady? That’s the $250 billion question.
💡 You might also like: Olin Corporation Stock Price: What Most People Get Wrong
Dividends: The reason we stay
Most people don't buy CBA for the explosive growth. They buy it for the "mailbox money."
The bank recently paid out a final dividend of $2.60 per share back in September 2025. Looking ahead, the forecast for the next dividend (expected in late March 2026) is looking like $2.25 per share.
Honestly, the yield isn't what it used to be. At current prices, you’re looking at a dividend yield of around 3.1% to 3.2%. If you factor in those beautiful franking credits, the "grossed-up" yield is closer to 4.5% or 4.6%.
It’s decent. But when you can get 5% or more in a high-interest savings account or from other ASX dividend payers like Amcor, the "income" argument for CBA gets a little weaker.
What the experts are actually saying
If you talk to the folks at Goldman Sachs or UBS, they’ve been cautious for a long time.
📖 Related: Funny Team Work Images: Why Your Office Slack Channel Is Obsessed With Them
Many analysts have "Sell" ratings on the stock, with some price targets as low as $100 to $120. They argue that the bank is priced for perfection, yet the earnings growth is only in the low single digits.
However, technical analysts see a different story. The stock has shown a stubborn refusal to break below the $150 support level. Every time it gets close, buyers step in. There's a "spinning top" doji forming on the weekly charts, which basically means the market is indecisive. It’s a standoff.
Common misconceptions about CBA stock
- "It always goes up": Tell that to someone who bought at $192 last year. It’s currently down about 20% from those highs.
- "The RBA rate cuts will save it": Actually, banks often prefer slightly higher rates because it gives them more room to play with their margins. Rapid rate cuts can actually compress their profits if they can't lower deposit rates as fast as loan rates.
- "It’s a monopoly": It feels like it, but Macquarie and digital-first "neobanks" are slowly chipping away at their market share, especially in business lending.
What should you actually do?
Look, no one has a crystal ball. But if you're watching the Commonwealth Bank of Australia stock price right now, you have to decide what kind of investor you are.
If you are a long-term "set and forget" investor, the current price dip might just be noise. You’re here for the 10-year horizon and the franked dividends.
But if you’re looking for value?
You might want to wait. With a P/E of 25x and earnings growth lagging, the stock is "incontestably expensive" by almost every metric.
Actionable steps for your portfolio:
- Check your concentration: If CBA makes up more than 10-15% of your total portfolio, you’re heavily exposed to the Australian housing market. You might want to diversify into sectors that aren't so tied to mortgage rates.
- Watch the February 11 report: CBA is scheduled to report its First Half 2026 results on February 11, 2026. This will be the big "tell." Look specifically at the Net Interest Margin (NIM) and the arrears rate (how many people are falling behind on loans).
- Consider the "Yield Trap": Don't just buy because of the dividend. If the stock price drops 10% but pays a 3% dividend, you're still down 7%. Make sure the capital stability makes sense for you at these levels.
- Use Limit Orders: Given the current volatility, don't just "buy at market." If you want in, pick a price you’re comfortable with—maybe closer to that $150 support level—and let the market come to you.
The story of CBA in 2026 isn't about a crash or a moonshot. It's about a high-quality giant trying to justify a massive valuation in a world where the "easy money" era is over. It’s still the king of the ASX, but even kings have to deal with gravity eventually.