Honestly, looking at the comm bank share price asx right now feels a bit like staring at a gravity-defying stunt that everyone knows has to end. It’s the stock every Aussie grandma owns and every institutional analyst loves to hate.
As of mid-January 2026, we’re seeing a fascinating tug-of-war. On one side, you have the "Bank of Mum and Dad" retail investors who refuse to sell. On the other, the pros at places like Macquarie and Jefferies have been shouting "Underperform" until they’re blue in the face.
The Numbers That Don't Add Up
Let’s talk turkey. Right now, the comm bank share price asx is hovering around the $154.60 mark.
Sounds great, right? Especially when you remember it peaked at a dizzying $192.00 back in June 2025. But here’s the kicker: even after sliding nearly 14% from those highs, it’s still arguably the most expensive bank on the planet.
We’re looking at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 25.5x. To put that in perspective, most global banks are lucky to trade at 10x or 12x. Even our local peers like NAB or Westpac usually sit much lower, often around 16x to 18x.
Why do people pay the "CBA Premium"?
Basically, it's the tech. CBA isn't just a bank; it's a software company with a banking license. They spend billions—literally $2.29 billion in the 2025 financial year alone—on technology and compliance. That’s why your CommBank app feels like 2026 while some other banks still feel like 2012.
The Dividend Reality Check
If you're holding for the dividends, you’ve probably noticed the yield has gotten a bit... skinny.
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At current prices, the yield is sitting around 3.1% to 3.4%. For a "widows and orphans" stock in Australia, that's not exactly a blowout. The 2025 full-year dividend came in at $4.85 per share, fully franked.
- The Good: It's 100% franked, which is gold for retirees.
- The Bad: You can get 4.35% just sitting in a high-interest savings account (if the RBA holds steady, which they seem to be doing).
- The Ugly: The payout ratio is already at 78.5%. There isn't a whole lot of room to hike dividends significantly unless profits explode.
What’s Actually Moving the Comm Bank Share Price ASX?
The market is currently obsessed with two things: the "Higher for Longer" interest rate narrative and the slowing mortgage market.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has basically hit the pause button at 4.35%. While the US might be looking at rate cuts, our local inflation is stickier than a Vegemite jar lid. This is a double-edged sword for CBA.
High rates mean better Net Interest Margins (NIM)—that’s the gap between what they charge you for a mortgage and what they pay you on your savings. In their 2025 annual report, CBA’s NIM was a solid 2.08%.
But there's a limit.
When rates stay high, people stop borrowing. The "mortgage war" in Australia is brutal right now. CBA is actually losing a bit of market share because they refuse to chase "unprofitable" loans. They’d rather be small and profitable than big and broke. It’s a smart strategy, but it makes growth hard to find.
The "Strong Sell" Consensus
It is genuinely rare to see a stock where almost every major analyst agrees it’s overpriced.
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Usually, you get a mix of opinions. But with the comm bank share price asx, the consensus is a resounding "Sell." Analysts have an average price target of roughly $122.12.
Think about that. The stock is at $154, and the experts think it’s worth $32 less.
Why the disconnect?
Macquarie analysts have been pointing out that CBA’s valuation assumes "perfection." They argue that even a tiny uptick in bad debts—which are currently super low at just 7 basis points—could send the share price tumbling. If unemployment ticks up to the forecast 4.4% in 2026, those "perfect" conditions might start to fray.
Is It Time to Bail or Buy the Dip?
Whether the comm bank share price asx is a "Buy" depends entirely on who you are.
If you’re a long-term investor who has held since the $60 days, you’re probably sitting on massive capital gains. Selling means a huge tax bill. For you, the dividend—even at 3.1%—might still be worth more than the headache of selling.
But if you’re looking to put new money to work?
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Man, $154 is a lot to pay for a bank growing its cash profit at 4% a year. You’re essentially paying for the brand and the security of knowing they are "too big to fail."
The 2026 Outlook
We are heading into a "sideways" year.
The ASX 200 is predicted to hit maybe 9,300 to 9,500 by the end of 2026. If the broader market is only growing 5% to 9%, it's hard to see CBA outperforming when its starting valuation is already so "full."
Watch the February 2026 reporting season like a hawk. That’s when we’ll see if those high interest rates are finally starting to cause cracks in the home loan portfolio. If arrears stay stable and they announce another share buyback (they still have about $700 million left on their current $1 billion program), the price might just keep defying gravity.
Actionable Insights for CBA Shareholders:
- Check Your Weighting: If CBA now makes up more than 10-15% of your total portfolio because of the recent price surge, you might be over-exposed to a single sector.
- Monitor the RBA: Any hint of a rate hike (yes, it’s still a small risk) could actually hurt the share price now, as it increases the risk of loan defaults.
- Compare the Peers: Look at the yield on NAB or Westpac. If you’re purely an income seeker, you might find an extra 1% yield elsewhere without the extreme P/E premium.
- Set a Floor: If you’re worried about a correction, consider a mental "trailing stop loss." If the price drops below $140, that 52-week low territory, the technical support might evaporate quickly.
The bottom line is that CBA is a "quality at a very high price" story. It’s the gold standard of Australian banking, but even gold can be overpriced. Keep a close eye on the February earnings—the market won't forgive a miss at these valuations.