Football is weird. Sometimes you have these inter-conference matchups that feel like a scheduled obligation, and then you actually watch the tape. You see the stats. You realize that Colts vs LA Rams is quietly one of the most evenly matched, high-variance series in the modern NFL.
Honestly, if you just look at the jerseys, you’d think these teams have nothing in common. One is the stoic, horseshoe-clad representative of the Midwest; the other is the flashy, Hollywood-adjacent powerhouse at SoFi Stadium. But look closer.
Across their entire history, the Colts have 37 wins and the Rams have 34. They’ve tied twice. The average score for this matchup over decades? It’s basically a toss-up, with Indy averaging about 22 points and the Rams hovering just over 21. That is a razor-thin margin for two teams that barely see each other.
The September 2025 Heartbreaker
If you want to understand the current temperature of this rivalry, you have to talk about September 28, 2025. It was a Week 4 clash that felt more like a January playoff game.
The Colts walked into SoFi Stadium with a perfect 3-0 record. They left with their first "L" and a lot of questions about discipline. It was a 27-20 Rams victory that probably shouldn't have been that close, yet somehow felt like the Colts' game to lose right up until the final two minutes.
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Matthew Stafford—who apparently found the fountain of youth in his 17th season—threw for 375 yards. That was a personal best for his entire tenure with the Rams. He was surgical. But the real story wasn't just Stafford; it was the sheer chaos of the second half.
Adonai Mitchell, the Colts' young receiver, had a moment that will haunt his film sessions for years. He caught a deep ball from Daniel Jones, broke a tackle, and had nothing but green grass between him and a 76-yard touchdown. He went to extend the ball over the goal line—a classic "hero ball" move—and fumbled it out of the back of the end zone. Touchback. Instead of Indy going up by two scores, the Rams got the ball back.
Why the Rams Keep Winning the Close Ones
Lately, the Rams have had the Colts' number, winning five of the last six meetings. But it's never a blowout. Well, rarely. We don't talk about that 46-9 disaster in 2017 anymore.
In the 2025 matchup, Puka Nacua was basically a cheat code. He caught 13 passes for 170 yards. The Colts tried to stick veteran Xavien Howard on him, but the data from PFF was brutal: Howard allowed a nearly perfect passer rating when targeted. It was a mismatch that Sean McVay exploited until the Colts' secondary was gasping for air.
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But then there's the "Stafford Factor." With under two minutes left and the game tied at 20, the Rams were backed up. Most coaches play it safe there. McVay didn't. Stafford launched an 88-yard bomb to Tutu Atwell. Game over.
It’s that willingness to take the lid off the defense that makes the Colts vs LA Rams games so volatile. You can dominate the time of possession—which the Rams did in 2025, holding the ball for nearly 32 minutes—but one mistake from a young player like Mitchell or a late-game heave from Stafford flips the entire script.
Key Stats and Personnel Shifts
If you're looking for why these games go the way they do, look at the trenches. In their most recent meeting, Jared Verse—the Rams' budding star on the edge—notched a strip-sack that basically killed a late Colts drive.
- Total Yards (2025): Rams 462, Colts 333
- Penalties: Colts 11 (88 yards), Rams 7 (63 yards)
- Top Performer: Puka Nacua (13 rec, 170 yds, 1 TD)
- Colts Bright Spot: Jonathan Taylor (17 carries, 76 yards, though he had a long TD called back on a holding penalty)
The Colts are currently led by Daniel Jones under center, a move that still divides the fanbase in Indianapolis. He was mistake-free for the first three weeks of 2025, but the Rams' pressure forced two interceptions in that Week 4 game. It proves that while Indy has the talent—especially with a healthy Jonathan Taylor—they struggle when the game becomes a track meet.
What’s Next for Both Franchises?
As we head into 2026, the schedules are already set. The Colts are finishing third in the AFC South, which means their 2026 path involves the AFC North and NFC East. They won't actually face the Rams in the 2026 regular season unless the NFL schedule makers throw a massive curveball with the "17th game" crossover, which currently has the Colts slated to play the Vikings.
The Rams, meanwhile, are looking at a home-heavy 2026 schedule, including a massive matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
If you're a betting person or just a fan trying to make sense of the Colts vs LA Rams dynamic, the takeaway is simple: discipline wins. In their last three meetings, the team with fewer turnovers and penalties has won 100% of the time. It’s not about who has the flashier offense; it’s about who blinks first.
Actionable Insights for Fans
- Watch the WR/CB Mismatches: Whenever these two meet, the Rams will target the Colts' weakest link in the secondary. If Indy hasn't upgraded their corner depth by their next encounter, expect another 150-yard day for Nacua or Cooper Kupp.
- Monitor Jonathan Taylor’s Usage: The Colts are a different team when Taylor gets 20+ carries. In the 2025 loss, he only had 17. When he's the focal point, Daniel Jones plays better play-action football.
- Expect High Totals: These teams tend to move the ball. Even in "defensive" struggles, they usually combine for over 700 yards of offense.
The rivalry might not have a fancy trophy or a catchy name, but for those who actually watch the tape, it's a masterclass in how small mistakes—like a fumbled ball at the goal line or a single holding call—can derail an entire season.