If you're planning on carving turkeys in the Rockies this year, you’re probably obsessively checking the Colorado Thanksgiving snow forecast. It’s basically a state pastime. One minute you’re looking at a 60-degree afternoon in Denver, and the next, a "bomb cyclone" is shutting down I-70.
Honestly? Most people look at the wrong things. They see a picture of a snowflake on a weather app three weeks out and book a non-refundable flight. That's a mistake. Colorado weather is chaotic, especially in late November.
The La Niña Reality Check
We are currently riding a weak La Niña wave for the 2025-2026 season. Now, if you listen to the hype, La Niña is supposed to mean "non-stop powder for the northern mountains and a desert for the south." But it’s rarely that clean.
The National Weather Service recently pointed out that while La Niña is favored to stick around through the holiday, it’s looking a bit "weak and short-duration." What does that mean for your Thanksgiving? It means the jet stream is gonna be finicky.
Typically, this pattern pushes storms toward the northern Rockies. If you’re heading to Steamboat or Winter Park, you’ve got a statistically better shot at seeing fresh flakes on the dinner table. But "equal chances" is the phrase of the year for much of central Colorado. Meteorologists use that term when the atmosphere is basically a coin flip.
Why the Front Range is a Wildcard
Denver and the Front Range are weird in November.
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Historical data shows that Denver's snowiest Thanksgiving on record was back in 1987, when 5 inches fell. Most years? It's barely a dusting. In fact, there’s only been a handful of times in the last 40 years where Denver saw more than an inch of snow on the actual holiday.
But don't let the dry pavement in town fool you.
The "upslope" effect can turn a mild day in the city into a nightmare on the mountain passes. If a storm pulls in moisture from the south and hits those eastern slopes, the foothills like Eldora or the Palmer Divide can get hammered while the airport stays dry.
The Resort Opening Race
Thanksgiving is the unofficial "start" for many big-name resorts. Here is the current situation for 2026:
- Keystone and Arapahoe Basin already have a head start, having opened in October.
- Vail Mountain and Beaver Creek are targeting that mid-to-late November window (around November 14-26).
- Telluride and Aspen Snowmass usually aim for Thanksgiving Day itself (November 26, 2026) to drop the ropes.
If the forecast holds "mild and wet" as some models suggest, the resorts will be leaning heavily on their snowmaking guns. Modern snowmaking is incredible—it's not just "fake snow" anymore; it's high-tech water atomization—but it still needs cold nights. If we don't get those sub-freezing temps in the week leading up to the holiday, "opening day" might just be one or two "white ribbons of death" (narrow groomed runs) rather than a powder fest.
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Travel Hacks for the Holiday Storm
If the Colorado Thanksgiving snow forecast does turn sour, you need a plan.
I-70 is a beast. The Colorado Department of Transportation (CDOT) doesn't play around with the Traction Law. If your rental car doesn't have 3PMSF (the mountain snowflake symbol) tires or at least M+S (mud and snow) ratings with decent tread, you can get slapped with a massive fine if you cause a delay.
And trust me, you don't want to be the person who shuts down the Eisenhower Tunnel because you tried to drive a Camry with bald tires through a blizzard.
The "mild and wet" prediction for 2026 is actually a bit concerning for travel. Why? Because it suggests the freezing line might be right at the elevation of the mountain passes. That creates "slush," which is arguably more dangerous than dry, cold snow. It’s heavy, it’s slick, and it turns into ice the second the sun goes down.
What to Actually Expect
Look, long-range forecasts are basically educated guesses. The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for "mild" conditions, while the Farmers' Almanac is screaming about a "very cold and snowy" North Central region.
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Who do you believe?
Neither. You watch the Pacific Northwest. Most of Colorado’s big November dumps start as moisture hitting Seattle or Portland. It takes about 24 to 48 hours for those systems to track across the Great Basin and hit our peaks. If you see a massive "atmospheric river" hitting the West Coast on the Monday before Thanksgiving, start Waxing your skis.
Actionable Advice for Your Trip:
- Check the 10,000-foot temps: If the forecast says 40 degrees in Denver, it’s likely 20 degrees at the resorts. Don’t pack based on the city weather.
- Monitor the "Trough": Watch for a low-pressure trough dipping down from Canada. That's the cold air source. Without it, the "wet" part of the forecast just means a rainy, muddy hike.
- Book the Bustang: If you’re nervous about driving in the snow, the Bustang (Colorado’s mountain bus service) is a godsend. Let a professional driver handle the slush while you nap.
- Download the OpenSnow App: Forget the generic weather apps. You want a local forecaster who knows how the wind direction affects specific valleys.
The reality is that Colorado's Thanksgiving snow is rarely a "guarantee," but it is always an adventure. Whether it's a bluebird day with dry trails or a 12-inch powder dump that keeps you stuck in the cabin with a second slice of pie, you just have to roll with the punches.
Check the CDOT cameras at Cotrip.org before you head out. If the cameras show "white-out" at Vail Pass, just stay in the hotel and have another drink. The mountains aren't going anywhere.
Before you head out, make sure to double-check the specific tire requirements for the I-70 corridor, as the state has recently increased enforcement during holiday weekends.