You know that feeling when the alarm goes off at 9:00 AM on a Saturday and you’re already behind? That was basically the vibe in Knoxville this morning. The energy on Ayres Hall Lawn was something else. Seriously. When College GameDay rolls into Rocky Top, the crowd doesn’t just show up; they vibrate. And honestly, with No. 6 Georgia in town to face No. 15 Tennessee, the stakes for college gameday picks week 3 haven't been this high since, well, probably the last time they were here in 2022.
The air was thick with the smell of charcoal and optimism. But as soon as the crew started talking, that optimism got a reality check. We're looking at a Week 3 slate that feels like a minefield for bettors and fans alike.
The Rocky Top Showdown: Georgia vs. Tennessee
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room—or rather, the Bulldog. Georgia has won eight straight against the Vols. That is a massive mental hurdle. Most of the desk, specifically Nick Saban and Desmond Howard, aren't ready to bet against Kirby Smart yet. They picked Georgia. Simple as that.
But then there's Pat McAfee. He went full "Rocky Top" and picked the Vols for the upset. Bold? Maybe. But Tennessee’s offense under Joey Aguilar has been humming. He put up 288 yards and two scores against ETSU last week. Granted, that’s not Georgia’s defense, but the kid has wheels.
The betting lines actually saw some movement here too. It opened with Georgia as a 5.5-point favorite, but by kickoff, it had been bet down to around -3.5. That tells you the "sharp" money thinks Tennessee keeps this within a field goal.
Expert Note: Tennessee’s secondary is a bit of a mess right now. With Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III both out, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton might have a field day if the Vols' pass rush doesn't get home.
The Guest Picker: Candace Parker
It wouldn't be a Knoxville show without a legend. Candace Parker stepped on stage as the celebrity guest picker and, shocker, she’s riding with her alma mater. She didn't just pick Tennessee to win; she basically willed it into existence.
Her picks were actually pretty solid across the board:
- LSU over Florida: A unanimous choice for the whole crew. Florida is reeling after that loss to South Florida.
- Notre Dame over Texas A&M: She’s trusting the Irish defense here.
- Arkansas over Ole Miss: This was one of the few "split" picks of the day.
Chaos in the ACC and Beyond
If you thought the SEC was the only place with drama, you haven't been watching the ACC. College gameday picks week 3 got really weird when it came to Clemson and Georgia Tech.
Pat McAfee is basically the lone wolf on Georgia Tech. He’s a believer. Everyone else? They’re sticking with Dabo Swinney and Clemson. But check this out: the line crashed from Clemson -7.5 all the way down to -3 at some books. That is a massive swing. People are genuinely worried about Clemson’s offense, which has been sputtering like a lawnmower in late November.
Then you’ve got USF at Miami. USF is the "darling" of the Group of Five right now. They already knocked off Boise State and Florida. Most of the GameDay crew thinks Miami wins (they’re 17.5-point favorites), but McAfee and Candace Parker both took USF to cover that massive spread. Byrum Brown, the USF quarterback, accounted for nearly 600 yards of offense against the Gators. If he does half of that against Miami, the Hurricanes are in for a long afternoon.
Why Week 3 Is Different This Year
In the past, Week 3 was often "cupcake week" where the big teams played the schools you've never heard of. Not in 2025. The new conference alignments and the expanded playoff mean every one of these games has massive implications.
Take Wisconsin at Alabama. It’s a 12:00 PM kick on ABC. Alabama is a 20.5-point favorite. That feels high, right? Desmond Howard thinks so. He was the only one on the desk to take the Badgers to cover. Everyone else thinks Ty Simpson and the Tide are going to roll.
Key Injury Updates Impacting the Picks
You can’t make smart picks without looking at the training room.
- Alabama: Left tackle Kadyn Proctor is expected to make his season debut. That’s huge for Ty Simpson’s blindside.
- Wisconsin: Their starting QB, Billy Edwards Jr., is officially OUT. That’s a death knell for an upset bid.
- Florida: Graham Mertz is back from concussion protocol, but he’s expected to split time with freshman DJ Lagway.
How to Handle Your Own Picks
If you're looking at the college gameday picks week 3 and trying to figure out where to put your own money (or just win your office pool), here’s the reality: follow the "sharp" movement.
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When you see a line move from 7.5 to 3, like the Clemson game, there’s a reason. Don’t just look at the names on the jerseys. Look at the matchups. Georgia’s pass rush against a depleted Tennessee secondary is a mismatch, regardless of how loud Neyland Stadium gets.
Actionable Insights for Your Saturday:
- Avoid the Big Spreads: Teams like Miami and Alabama are laying massive numbers (17.5 and 20.5). In Week 3, favorites often take their foot off the gas once the game is in hand.
- Watch the Weather: We've seen some delays in the Southeast already this season. A wet ball favors the better running team—in this case, Georgia and LSU.
- Trust the Trends: Georgia is 0-2 against the spread this year. They win, but they don't always "cover." Tennessee is 2-0 ATS.
The most important thing? Enjoy the chaos. College football is built on the fact that 19-year-olds are unpredictable. Whether Corso puts on the Big Orange head or stays with the Dawgs, the next twelve hours are going to be wild.
Next Steps for Your Gameday:
- Monitor the live betting lines right up until kickoff, especially for the Tennessee-Georgia game, as late injury news could shift the spread again.
- Compare the consensus picks from the GameDay crew against the computer models (like SP+) to see where the human emotion is outweighing the data.