So, here we are. It’s mid-January 2026, and if you told a college football fan two years ago that Indiana and Miami would be the last two teams standing, they probably would’ve asked you to take a breathalyzer. But that’s the reality of the 12-team playoff era. It’s chaotic. It’s unpredictable. And honestly, it’s exactly what the sport needed.
This week’s focus is entirely on the College Football Playoff National Championship, set for Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium. We’ve moved past the semifinals where Indiana absolutely dismantled Oregon 56-22 and Miami survived a 31-27 thriller against Ole Miss. Now, the stakes are as high as they get.
College football predictions this week: The David vs. Goliath narrative is dead
Most people look at a No. 1 vs. No. 10 matchup and assume a blowout. Don't do that. Indiana enters this game at a perfect 15-0, led by Curt Cignetti, who has somehow turned one of the historically worst programs in the Power Four into a ruthless winning machine. They aren't just winning; they’re embarrassing people.
On the other side, Mario Cristobal has the Hurricanes playing in their own backyard. Miami is the first team in the CFP era to play the title game in their home stadium. They’ve been the "Cardiac Canes" all postseason, upsetting Ohio State and then holding off the Rebels in the Fiesta Bowl.
Why Indiana is the heavy favorite
The Hoosiers opened as 7.5-point favorites for a reason. Their offense is averaging 47 points per game in the playoffs. Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza has been surgical. What really stands out, though, isn't just the scoring—it's how they protect him. According to PFF, Indiana’s offensive line ranks 10th in the nation in run-blocking, and they’ve been elite at preventing "knockdowns."
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Mendoza has a 71.7 passing grade under pressure, which is the best among Power Four quarterbacks. If you can’t get him on the ground, he will pick you apart. He’s got this weird, calm energy that seems to frustrate defensive coordinators.
The Miami pass rush is the X-factor
If anyone can break that Indiana protection, it’s the Hurricanes. This is where the college football predictions this week get really interesting. Miami leads the FBS with a 92.5 team pass-rushing grade. They have 54 sacks on the year.
Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor are basically nightmares with cleats on. They combined for 11 sacks in the last two playoff games alone. If Miami wins this game, it won't be because Carson Beck threw for 400 yards; it’ll be because Bain and Mesidor lived in the Indiana backfield and forced Mendoza into making the first mistakes of his season.
Breaking down the matchups and injury reports
Injuries always play a massive role this late in the year. The "16-game season" for these college kids is a brutal grind.
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Indiana's Health Status: Coach Cignetti was pretty blunt in his presser this week. He expects everyone who played against Oregon to be available. The only major loss they’ve dealt with recently was defensive lineman Stephen Daley, who had a freak leg injury during the Big Ten title celebration. Other than that, they are remarkably healthy for mid-January.
Miami's Defensive Reinforcements:
Mario Cristobal is feeling optimistic about his secondary. Cornerbacks O.J. Frederique Jr. and Damari Brown are the names to watch. Frederique missed the semifinal after a scary incident against Ohio State, but word out of Coral Gables is that he’s "good to go." Brown is more of a "day-by-day" situation, but getting even one of them back at 90% changes how Miami can defend Indiana's speed on the perimeter.
The Carson Beck Factor
Let’s talk about Carson Beck. The sixth-year senior has been criticized for being a "game manager" in this system, but look at the stats. Miami is deliberately running shorter routes to limit his mistakes—he's averaging 5.2 yards per attempt in the playoffs compared to over 8 in the regular season.
They are leaning on Mark Fletcher Jr. and the ground game to take the air out of the ball. It’s a ball-control strategy designed to keep Indiana’s high-powered offense on the sideline. If Beck can just avoid the "big mistake" and hit Malachi Toney on a couple of explosive YAC (yards after catch) plays, Miami stays in this.
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What most people get wrong about this game
The common trap is thinking Miami’s No. 10 seed means they don't belong. Remember, they were the last team in. They lost to Louisville and SMU in the regular season. They’ve been playing "win or go home" football for a month.
Indiana hasn't trailed in the fourth quarter in what feels like forever. There is a psychological element here. If Miami can jump out to a 10-0 lead in front of a home crowd, how does an undefeated Indiana team that hasn't faced true adversity respond?
Actionable insights for the National Championship
If you're looking at the betting lines or just trying to win your office pool, keep these details in mind:
- The "Home" Advantage: While it's technically a neutral site, Hard Rock Stadium is Miami’s house. The travel fatigue is zero for the Canes, while Indiana has to move their entire operation to South Florida.
- The Over/Under: It’s currently sitting around 44.5. Both these teams have elite defensive fronts. If the pass rushes dominate as expected, this could be a lower-scoring slugfest than the "47 PPG" Indiana average suggests.
- The Trench Battle: Watch the first two drives. If Indiana’s Carter Smith can handle Rueben Bain one-on-one, Miami is in big trouble. If Bain starts getting home early, the Hoosiers will have to keep tight ends in to block, neutering their vertical passing game.
The 2026 season has been a wild ride, but it concludes with a fascinating contrast in styles. You have the methodical, undefeated perfection of Indiana against the aggressive, battle-hardened, and slightly chaotic Miami Hurricanes.
To prepare for Monday night, keep an eye on the final injury reports regarding the Miami secondary. If Frederique and Brown are both full-go, the spread might actually shrink toward the Canes. On the flip side, if Mendoza stays clean in the pocket for the first quarter, the Hoosiers could be on their way to a historic 16-0 finish.