So, the dust has finally settled. If you’ve been living under a rock—or just haven't been glued to a screen since New Year's—the 12-team experiment just basically threw the old college football hierarchy into a woodchipper. Honestly, if you had told me at the start of the season that the national title game would feature these two teams, I probably would have laughed.
But here we are.
The question of who is in college football playoffs is now officially down to just two programs standing. It’s No. 1 Indiana and No. 10 Miami.
That’s it. Everyone else is home.
The Last Two Standing
The 2026 National Championship is set for Monday, January 19, at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. It’s kind of wild because Miami is playing for a natty in their own backyard, yet technically they're the "visiting" team. Indiana, meanwhile, is the undefeated juggernaut that nobody—and I mean nobody—expected to be this dominant.
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Indiana is 15-0. They didn't just win their playoff games; they absolutely demolished people. We’re talking about a 38-3 win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl and then a 56-22 beating of Oregon in the Peach Bowl. Curt Cignetti has turned that program into a machine.
Miami's path was way more stressful. They’ve been playing "cardiac canes" football for weeks. They beat Texas A&M 10-3 in a game that felt like a 1920s mud bowl, then upset Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl. Their semifinal win over Ole Miss was a 31-27 thriller where Carson Beck scrambled for a touchdown with basically no time left.
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To understand how we got to this Miami vs. Indiana matchup, you have to look at the wreckage of the 12-team bracket. This was the first year we really saw how the "bye week" advantage played out, and frankly, it was a mixed bag.
The First Round (The On-Campus Chaos)
The opening round was played back in late December at the home stadiums of the higher seeds.
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- Alabama handled Oklahoma 34-24 in Norman.
- Miami went into College Station and squeezed past Texas A&M 10-3.
- Ole Miss crushed Tulane 41-10.
- Oregon blew out James Madison 51-34.
The Quarterfinals (New Year’s Madness)
This is where things got weird. The top four seeds—Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas Tech—were all coming off byes. Usually, you’d think they’d be rested. Instead, three of them got bounced.
- The Rose Bowl: Indiana (1) vs. Alabama (9). Final: Indiana 38, Alabama 3. This wasn't even a game.
- The Cotton Bowl: Ohio State (2) vs. Miami (10). Final: Miami 24, Ohio State 14. A massive upset that sent the defending champs packing.
- The Sugar Bowl: Georgia (3) vs. Ole Miss (6). Final: Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34. A pure shootout in New Orleans.
- The Orange Bowl: Texas Tech (4) vs. Oregon (5). Final: Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0. Oregon’s defense recorded the first shutout in CFP history.
Why Does This Matter?
Basically, the 12-team format did exactly what it was supposed to do: it kept the season alive for more teams. But it also proved that a bye week can be a double-edged sword. Outside of Indiana, every team that had a week off lost their quarterfinal game. People are already calling it "bye week rust," but honestly, it might just be that the teams playing in the first round stayed "hot."
Breaking Down the National Championship Matchup
If you’re looking for a reason to watch on Monday night, just look at the quarterbacks. You’ve got Fernando Mendoza for Indiana—who has been surgical—and Carson Beck for Miami, who has seen everything the sport can throw at him.
Indiana enters as an 8.5-point favorite. That’s a lot for a title game, but when you win your last two games by a combined 69 points, people tend to believe in you. They are looking for their first-ever national title. Miami hasn't won one since the 2001 season.
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It's also a bit of a homecoming. A lot of the Indiana kids are from South Florida. Both Mendoza brothers (Fernando and Alberto) played high school ball at Christopher Columbus High in Miami, the same school Mario Cristobal attended. The storylines are everywhere.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're planning on following the final stretch, here is what you need to do:
- Check the Schedule: Kickoff is 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, Monday, January 19.
- Watch the Spread: The line has fluctuated between Indiana -7.5 and -8.5. If you're a betting person, keep an eye on injury reports regarding Miami's secondary, which took a few hits against Ole Miss.
- Look for the "Home" Advantage: Even though Miami is the lower seed and technically the visitor, expect Hard Rock Stadium to be 80% orange and green. This is a rare "home game" for a national title.
The 2026 playoff run has been a wild ride. From James Madison making the field to Indiana's scorched-earth campaign, the 12-team era is officially here to stay. Now, we just wait to see if the Hoosiers can finish the perfect season or if Miami’s luck finally runs out at home.