The 2025 season felt like a fever dream that didn't end until Fernando Mendoza hoisted the trophy in New York. If you had "Indiana quarterback wins the Heisman" on your bingo card last August, you're either a liar or a time traveler. But that's the thing about the college football Heisman watch—it’s inherently chaotic, and the 2026 cycle is already shaping up to be even weirder.
Vegas just dropped the opening odds for 2026. Arch Manning is sitting at the top at +750.
Honestly, it makes sense on paper. He’s a Manning at Texas. But if we learned anything from Mendoza’s rise or Travis Hunter’s historic two-way 2024 campaign, it’s that the "pedigree" pick rarely cruises to a win without a fight. The transfer portal and the expanded playoff have fundamentally changed how voters look at this award. It isn't just about the best stats on the best team anymore. It’s about who owns the narrative when the leaves start to turn in October.
Why the College Football Heisman Watch Starts with Arch
Everyone wants to talk about Arch. You basically have to. He finished the 2025 regular season with a 61.4% completion rate and showed some serious wheels in November wins over Vanderbilt and Texas A&M. He has the "it" factor, but being the favorite in January is usually a curse. Remember, he was the preseason favorite for 2025 too, and he didn't even make the trip to New York as a finalist.
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Texas is likely going to be a top-five team again. That helps. But for Manning to actually win, he has to do more than just manage the Longhorns' offense. He needs those "Heisman moments" that Mendoza produced, like that five-touchdown shredding of Illinois or the gutsy Big Ten title win over Ohio State where he played through a massive hit on the first snap.
The Big Ten’s Stranglehold on the 2026 Race
Ohio State is basically a Heisman factory at this point. Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith are both back, and that’s a problem for the rest of the country. Sayin was a finalist in 2025, throwing for over 3,300 yards and 31 touchdowns. He leads the nation in completion percentage. If he keeps that up, it’s hard to see him not being in the top three again.
But here is the catch: Smith might actually be the better player.
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Smith finished sixth in the 2025 voting, which is insane for a sophomore wideout. He had 1,243 yards and 12 scores. Usually, teammates eat into each other’s votes. We saw it in 2025 with Sayin, Smith, and Caleb Downs all finishing in the top ten. It’s a "too many stars" problem. If Sayin spreads the ball around, he might put up the stats, but Smith is the one who makes the highlight reels that Discover loves to push.
Then you have CJ Carr at Notre Dame. He’s opening at +800. After Jeremiyah Love finished third in 2025, the Irish have proven they can get a guy to New York without a conference championship game. Carr is the "pure passer" pick in this group.
Dark Horses and the "Pavia Effect"
We have to talk about Diego Pavia. The guy nearly pulled off the impossible at Vanderbilt. He was the runner-up in 2025 with 189 first-place votes. He proved that "nontraditional" winners can actually win over the voters if they lead a program to a historic season. 10 wins at Vandy? That's Heisman fuel.
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So, who is the 2026 version of Pavia or Mendoza?
- Malachi Toney (Miami): He’s a freak. 1,059 scrimmage yards as a freshman. He plays special teams, he catches, he even throws touchdowns. At +2500, he’s the "Travis Hunter lite" candidate.
- Josh Hoover (Indiana): Mendoza might be the king of Bloomington, but Hoover is the one the books are watching at +1100. If Indiana keeps this momentum, why can't they go back-to-back?
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (Cal): This is your deep sleeper at +7000. He threw 17 touchdowns as a freshman. Cal isn't a powerhouse, but if they sniff eight or nine wins, his stats will be hard to ignore.
How to Actually Track the Race This Year
If you want to stay ahead of the curve on the college football Heisman watch, stop looking at total passing yards. That’s a 2010 way of thinking. Voters are obsessed with "efficiency" and "big game performance" now.
Mendoza won because he was first in adjusted yards per attempt ($11.1$). He wasn't just throwing; he was lethal. Also, look at the schedule. A quarterback who goes 12-0 in the SEC or Big Ten is going to beat a guy who goes 10-2 with better stats every single time. The playoff expansion means the regular season is now a three-month-long audition. One bad loss in November doesn't kill a team anymore, but it can absolutely kill a Heisman campaign.
Real Insights for the 2026 Season
The Heisman has become a "Quarterback on a Playoff Team" award. Since 2000, only four non-QBs have won it. Travis Hunter was the outlier because he was quite literally a one-of-one talent playing 1,400 snaps. Unless Jeremiah Smith starts playing cornerback, the trophy is likely staying in a QB’s hands.
Don't bet the house on the preseason favorite. Arch Manning has the name, but Julian Sayin has the system. And keep an eye on the transfers. Mendoza was a transfer. Jayden Daniels was a transfer. Caleb Williams was a transfer. The portal is where Heismans are made now.
Your Next Steps for Following the Race:
- Monitor the "implied probability": Arch Manning’s +750 odds mean the market thinks he has an 11.8% chance to win. Compare that to Julian Sayin at 8.2%. If Sayin’s odds don't move after a big Week 1, that’s where the value is.
- Watch the snap counts: If you see a skill player like Malachi Toney getting touches in the return game and the backfield, he's a serious contender for the "versatility" vote.
- Ignore the September hype: Most Heisman winners don't actually take the lead until late October. Let the "September Heisman" (remember John Mateer in 2025?) fade before you lock in your picks.