The race for the Wooden Award usually feels like a slow burn. You start with twenty guys, and by February, it's down to five. But honestly? This year is weird. We are sitting in mid-January 2026, and the college basketball player of the year odds have basically turned into a private duel between two freshmen who weren't even in college two years ago.
It’s Cameron Boozer and AJ Dybantsa. Everyone else is just sort of... there.
If you’re looking at the board right now, Duke’s Boozer is the heavy favorite. Most books have him sitting around -175 to -220. That is an insane price for a kid who just celebrated his 18th birthday a few months back. But then you look at what he’s doing for the Blue Devils, and it makes sense. He isn't playing like a freshman; he’s playing like a ten-year NBA vet who decided to go back to school for fun.
The Freshman Dynasty at the Top
It’s kinda wild how fast the "one-and-done" Narrative shifted from "talented but raw" to "dominant from day one." We saw it last year with Cooper Flagg—who, by the way, is currently tearing up the NBA with the Dallas Mavericks—and we are seeing it again.
Cameron Boozer is currently averaging a double-double. We're talking 23 points and nearly 10 boards a game. But the stat that really kills the competition? His efficiency. He’s shooting over 56% from the floor. For a guy who handles the ball and takes plenty of mid-range jumpers, that is purely clinical.
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Then there’s AJ Dybantsa.
If Boozer is the "polished pro," Dybantsa is the "human highlight reel." He’s leading the entire country in scoring at over 23 points per game. He’s the reason BYU is even in the conversation for a high seed in the tournament. Betting on Dybantsa at +275 to +350 feels like the only "value" play left if you think Duke might stumble in conference play.
The Realistic Contenders (and Longshots)
- Braden Smith (Purdue): He’s the "vibe" pick. Smith is trying to do what Zach Edey did—win the thing as an upperclassman. He’s at +1100. He’s the best floor general in the country, hands down. He’s probably going to break the all-time college assist record this season. But will the voters give it to a pass-first guard over a 23-point-per-game scorer? History says probably not.
- Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State): At +1400, he’s the dark horse for the "winning team" narrative. Iowa State is a defensive juggernaut, and Jefferson is the engine. If the Cyclones win the Big 12, his odds will crater (in a good way for bettors).
- Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan): He’s the stat-stuffer. 15 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and a couple of blocks. He does everything. But at +2200, you’re betting on Michigan to basically go undefeated the rest of the way for him to get real Heisman-level buzz.
Why Experience is Failing the Odds Test
Usually, college basketball is a senior’s game. We saw it with Edey. We saw it with Oscar Tshiebwe. But the college basketball player of the year odds this year tell a different story. The transfer portal has flattened the talent, but it hasn't produced a "super-senior" that can match the raw ceiling of the 2026 draft class.
Take Hunter Dickinson. He was the preseason darling for years. Now? He's in the NBA on a two-way deal with the Pelicans. RJ Davis and Mark Sears? They’re gone too. The "old guard" of college hoops has mostly graduated or moved on to the G-League, leaving a massive power vacuum that Boozer and Dybantsa filled within the first week of November.
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It's a bit of a bummer for the "team chemistry" purists, but it’s great for bettors. Why? Because the variance is lower. You know exactly what Boozer is going to give you every night. He’s a machine.
The "Cooper Flagg" Effect on Betting Lines
Voters are still buzzing from what Cooper Flagg did last year. He proved that a freshman could not only lead a blue-blood program but also dominate the national conversation from start to finish.
Because Flagg won the Wooden Award as a freshman, the "he’s too young" excuse is dead. Vegas knows this. That’s why you aren't seeing +500 or +600 for Boozer. They’ve priced him like an incumbent.
What to Watch for in February
The race usually shifts during the "grind" of February. This is where freshmen typically hit the "wall." The travel, the scouting reports, the physical Big Ten or ACC play—it adds up.
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If Boozer’s shooting percentage dips even 5%, the door swings wide open for a guy like JT Toppin at Texas Tech. Toppin is currently sitting at +4000. That is a massive number for a guy who is basically a walking 20-and-10. If Tech goes on a run and knocks off Kansas or Houston, Toppin becomes the "media darling" overnight.
Honestly, though? It feels like we're just waiting for the Boozer vs. Dybantsa debate to reach a fever pitch during the conference tournaments.
Actionable Insights for Following the Odds:
- Monitor the Efficiency: If Boozer stays above 55% FG, he wins. Period.
- Watch the Standings: A Player of the Year almost never comes from a team outside the Top 15. If BYU falls out of the rankings, Dybantsa’s scoring won't matter.
- The "Record" Narrative: Keep an eye on Braden Smith’s assist totals. If he approaches the all-time NCAA record, the "lifetime achievement" vote could steal some first-place ballots from the freshmen.
- Hedging is Your Friend: If you grabbed Boozer at the start of the season, taking a small flyer on Dybantsa now is the smart way to lock in a profit regardless of who wins.
The odds are going to shift every Monday when the new AP Poll comes out. Don't chase the "player of the week" hype. Look at the season-long metrics. That’s where the money is.
Keep an eye on the injury reports, specifically for Duke’s supporting cast. If Boozer has to carry even more of the load, his raw stats might go up while his efficiency takes a hit. That's the moment the odds will get truly interesting.
Next Steps:
Check the current ROI on a "Top 3 Finish" bet if your sportsbook offers it. While the winner's circle is crowded, there is often massive value in betting on guys like Joshua Jefferson to simply make the final ballot. You should also compare the odds across different books—FanDuel and BetMGM often have a 50-to-100 point variance on longshots like JT Toppin.