Zach Top just walked off the stage with a trophy that weighs a lot more than the actual metal it’s cast from.
Honestly, the CMA New Artist of the Year is the one category that makes everyone in Nashville hold their breath. It isn't just about who had a big radio hit this summer. It’s about who the industry is betting their entire future on. Winning it is basically like getting a golden ticket, but if you look at the history, that ticket sometimes leads to a stadium tour and sometimes... well, sometimes it leads to a very quiet career in songwriting where nobody remembers your face.
The 2025 Shakeup: How Zach Top Beat the Odds
If you were watching the 59th Annual CMA Awards in November 2025, you saw a pretty wild lineup. You had Shaboozey, who basically owned the planet with "A Bar Song (Tipsy)," and Tucker Wetmore, who has been blowing up every TikTok feed from here to Timbuktu. Then there was Ella Langley—fresh off that massive "You Look Like You Love Me" duet—and Stephen Wilson Jr., who is arguably the most "artist's artist" in the group.
But it was Zach Top who took it home.
Why? Because the CMA voters (the industry insiders, the label heads, the session players) are suckers for "real" country. Zach feels like he walked straight out of 1994. He’s got the thumb-pick style, the George Strait vibrato, and an album in Cold Beer & Country Music that sounds like it was recorded on analog tape in a basement. In a world where country music is leaning harder and harder into pop and hip-hop flows, giving the CMA New Artist of the Year to a guy from Washington state who plays bluegrass-infused neotraditional country is a massive statement.
It says: "We aren't ready to let go of the fiddle just yet."
✨ Don't miss: Temuera Morrison as Boba Fett: Why Fans Are Still Divided Over the Daimyo of Tatooine
What Most People Get Wrong About "New" Artists
Here is the thing that confuses everyone. To be eligible for this award, you don't actually have to be "new."
The CMA rules are kinda specific but also weirdly flexible. You have to be a country artist who has shown "significant creative growth and development" during the eligibility period. You can’t have won a CMA award before (unless it was for a song or a video), and you can only be a finalist for this specific category twice.
Basically, you can be ten years into your career and still be "new" if you finally hit that national tipping point. Look at Jelly Roll. He won in 2023 at 38 years old. He’d been grinding in the independent scene and the rap world for over a decade. But to the CMA, he was a "new" country artist because that was the year the world actually started paying attention to his Nashville roots.
The Eligibility "Grey Area"
- Consumption over Buzz: The CMA doesn't just care about how many followers you have. They look at "overall consumption." That means album sales, streaming numbers, and ticket sales.
- The Two-Strike Rule: If you get nominated twice and don't win, you're out. You’re no longer "new," even if you haven't hit the big leagues yet.
- The Reputation Factor: Since this is voted on by peers, not fans, the winner is usually the person who "paid their dues."
The "Horizon" Curse and the Winners Who Actually Made It
Before 2008, this was called the Horizon Award. It was supposed to show who was on the horizon of superstardom.
Sometimes, they nail it. In 2007, Taylor Swift won. That worked out pretty well for her, I guess. In 2015, Chris Stapleton won, and he basically restructured the entire sound of modern country music that night. Then you have guys like Luke Combs (2018) and Morgan Wallen (2020), who took that "New Artist" momentum and turned it into a monopoly on the Billboard charts.
🔗 Read more: Why Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy Actors Still Define the Modern Spy Thriller
But then there are the years where the winner just... fades. I won't name names to be mean, but there are plenty of "New Artist" winners from the 90s and early 2000s who are now playing at local fairs or haven't released an album in five years.
That’s why this award is a gamble. It’s the industry saying, "We think you’re the next Garth Brooks." No pressure, right?
Why the 2024 and 2025 Wins Signal a Shift
Looking at the last two years, something is changing in Nashville. In 2024, Megan Moroney won. She’s got that "emo cowgirl" thing going—very relatable, very online, but still very country. Then in 2025, Zach Top wins with a sound that’s thirty years old.
We are seeing a split in the genre. On one hand, you have the massive crossover hits like Shaboozey (who was nominated both years), and on the other, you have these purists. The fact that the CMA gave the win to Moroney and Top suggests that while the "pop-country" stuff makes the most money, the industry wants to preserve its identity.
They are rewarding the storytellers.
💡 You might also like: The Entire History of You: What Most People Get Wrong About the Grain
The Stephen Wilson Jr. Factor
We have to talk about Stephen Wilson Jr. for a second. He was the "oldest" nominee in the 2025 batch at 46. People were rooting for him because his music is heavy, intellectual, and sounds nothing like what’s on the radio.
The fact that he was even in the final five shows that the CMA New Artist of the Year is becoming more inclusive of different career paths. You don't have to be a 21-year-old with a backwards hat anymore. You can be a guy who spent half his life in a lab (literally, he was a scientist) and then decided to write songs about his dad and small-town grief.
What’s Next: How to Spot the 2026 Frontrunners
If you want to know who is going to be standing on that stage in late 2026, you have to look at the "fringe" right now. The CMA doesn't usually pick someone who just had one viral song. They pick the person who has a "package."
Keep an eye on the following:
- Touring Power: Is the artist selling out 500-capacity rooms as a headliner? That’s usually a better indicator of a CMA win than a Spotify playlist spot.
- Industry "Co-signs": Who is Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton bringing out on stage? The CMAs are a bit of a club; if the current kings and queens like you, you’re halfway there.
- The "Second Album" Test: Can they follow up a hit? The voters love a "New Artist" who shows they have more than one good idea.
Winning CMA New Artist of the Year isn't the finish line. It’s the starting gun. For Zach Top, the clock is ticking to see if he can turn that neotraditional sound into a multi-platinum career. For the fans, it's just a great way to find your next favorite artist before they're too famous to play anything smaller than an arena.
To stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at the Top 40 and start looking at the opening acts for the major "Soul" and "Outlaw" tours hitting the road this spring. The 2026 winner is likely currently sitting in a van somewhere between Des Moines and Little Rock, writing the song that will get them that trophy.
If you're following a rising artist, check their touring schedule on sites like Bandsintown or Songkick—if they're consistently moving from bars to theaters, they're officially on the CMA radar.