If you think a match between Club América v Necaxa is just another routine date on the Liga MX calendar, you haven't been paying attention. Honestly, this fixture has become one of the most unpredictable head-scratchers in Mexican football. Most fans walk into the stadium expecting the "Águilas" to simply steamroll the "Rayos" based on budget alone. But history? History says something else entirely.
Football isn't played on a spreadsheet.
Last season, we saw a perfect example of this chaos. It was February 14, 2025—Valentine's Day—and Necaxa decided to play the ultimate heartbreaker at the Estadio Azteca. Despite América being the heavy favorites, Necaxa walked away with a 3-2 victory. José Paradela and Diber Cambindo silenced the home crowd early. Even a late brace from Álvaro Fidalgo couldn't save the night. It was a tactical masterclass by the underdogs that reminded everyone why you never bet the house on a "sure thing" in this league.
The Weird History of Club América v Necaxa
The relationship between these two is... complicated. For years, they were basically "sister clubs" under the Televisa umbrella. This led to a lot of side-eye from rival fans who claimed Necaxa was just a feeder team for the giants. That narrative is mostly dead now, but the intensity remains.
Looking at the numbers from the last decade, América obviously holds the edge, but it’s closer than the trophy cabinets suggest. Since 2004, they've faced off roughly 39 times. América has 18 wins, while Necaxa has managed to snatch 10. The rest? 11 draws.
Basically, 25% of the time, Necaxa wins. That’s a high enough percentage to make any América manager sweat.
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Why the "Sister Club" Narrative Still Haunts the Match
Even though ownership has changed and Necaxa moved to Aguascalientes years ago, the player pipeline hasn't stopped. Just look at the current rosters. Luis Malagón, América’s wall in goal, came from Necaxa. Alejandro Zendejas? Another Necaxa find. On the flip side, you often see América players like Emilio Lara or Cristian "Chicote" Calderón heading to the Estadio Victoria on loan to find their form.
This creates a "revenge" dynamic. There is nothing a former América player loves more than scoring against the club that let them go. It happens constantly.
What’s at Stake in 2026?
Right now, the Clausura 2026 season is in its early stages, and the table looks a bit topsy-turvy. As of mid-January, Necaxa actually sits higher in the standings than América. It’s early, sure, but the pressure is mounting.
- Club América is currently hovering around 16th place after a rocky start.
- Necaxa holds 9th place, showing a defensive grit that many didn't expect.
América is dealing with a transition period. André Jardine is still at the helm, but with stars like Diego Valdés moving on to Velez Sarsfield and the arrival of big-money signings like Allan Saint-Maximin (who cost a cool $11.5 million from Al-Ahli), the chemistry isn't quite there yet. They are a team of individuals looking for a soul.
Necaxa, meanwhile, is the definition of "scrappy." They don't have the $23 million transfer budget América flashed this summer. Instead, they rely on guys like Agustín Oliveros and Alexis Peña to build a brick wall at the back. They wait. They lure you in. Then they hit you on the counter.
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Tactical Breakdown: How the Match Usually Goes
When these two meet, the script is almost always the same.
América will control the ball. They’ll have 65% possession. Álvaro Fidalgo will ping passes across the midfield like a metronome. Brian Rodríguez will try to isolate defenders on the wing. It looks dominant on paper.
But Necaxa thrives in the "ugly" parts of the game. They are masters of the low block. They don't mind if you have the ball 40 yards from their goal. They only care about the "Red Zone." If you can't thread the needle, they'll pick your pocket and launch a long ball to Diber Cambindo or Tomás Badaloni before your center-backs can even turn around.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Henry Martín vs. Alexis Peña: This is a heavyweight fight. Martín is the quintessential Mexican striker—strong, smart, and opportunistic. Peña is one of the most underrated defenders in the league. If Peña can keep Martín from turning in the box, América's attack often stalls.
- Kevin Álvarez vs. Kevin Rosero: This "Battle of the Kevins" on the wing is where the game is won or lost. Álvarez loves to fly forward, but that leaves massive gaps behind him. Rosero is lightning-fast and will exploit those spaces the second a turnover happens.
The Betting Angle (And Why It’s Tricky)
If you're looking at the odds for a match between Club América v Necaxa, the bookies will almost always tilt toward the Águilas. But the "Both Teams to Score" (BTTS) market is where the real action is. In 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two, both teams found the back of the net.
They don't do boring 0-0 draws very often.
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Even when América is "bad," they have enough individual talent to score a wonder goal. And even when Necaxa is outmatched, they find a way to capitalize on América's defensive arrogance. It’s just the nature of this matchup.
Where to Watch and What to Expect
The next clash is set for late January 2026 at the Estadio Ciudad de los Deportes (since the Azteca is still undergoing those massive World Cup renovations). The atmosphere is going to be tight. It's a smaller stadium, which actually favors Necaxa’s defensive style—there's less room for América's wingers to breathe.
If you’re watching from home, you’ll likely find it on TUDN or ViX+.
Expect a lot of whistling. Expect a few VAR reviews that take way too long. And honestly? Expect a result that makes no sense based on the league table.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the First 15 Minutes: Necaxa scores a surprising amount of their goals against big teams in the opening quarter-hour. If they catch América sleeping, the game plan shifts entirely to a "park the bus" strategy.
- Monitor the Discipline: In their last encounter, Kevin Álvarez saw red. These games get heated because of the shared history between the players. A yellow card in the first 20 minutes is a strong indicator of a high-foul game.
- The "Ex-Factor": Keep an eye on Emilio Lara. Since being loaned to Necaxa from América, he plays like he has something to prove every single minute. He knows the Águilas' attacking patterns better than anyone.
- Betting Strategy: If you’re looking at markets, the "Over 2.5 Goals" has hit in a majority of their recent competitive matches. Don't let the "defensive" reputation of Necaxa fool you; when they play América, the game opens up.
Keep your eyes on the team sheets an hour before kickoff. If Jardine rests Fidalgo or Henry Martín, the odds for a Necaxa upset skyrocket. This isn't a game where América can win with their "B" team. Not in 2026.