You’ve seen the highlights. You probably saw the 38-30 score from the football game at Nippert Stadium back in October. But if you think Cincinnati vs Iowa State is just another random conference matchup, you’re missing the real story.
Honestly, it's personal now.
When Cincinnati jumped to the Big 12, people expected them to be the new kids on the block getting bullied. Instead, they’ve turned into a massive thorn in the side of the Cyclones. Whether it’s on the grass or the hardwood, these two schools are developing a weird, high-stakes chemistry that's becoming must-watch TV.
The Football Game That Changed the Narrative
Let’s talk about October 4, 2025. Iowa State walked into Cincinnati ranked #14 in the country. They were the favorites. They were supposed to keep their playoff dreams clean.
Cincinnati had other plans.
Brendan Sorsby was basically a magician that day. He didn’t just play quarterback; he dismantled a very disciplined Iowa State defense. The Bearcats rushed for a staggering 260 yards. Evan Pryor was hitting holes that shouldn't have existed, finishing with 111 yards and two scores.
But it wasn't just the stats. It was the chaos.
Cincinnati had 13 penalties for 128 yards. Usually, that’s how you lose a game. But they were so physically dominant in the first half—building a 31-7 lead—that even a furious Rocco Becht comeback couldn't save the Cyclones.
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"They’ve been crazy resilient," Wes Miller said recently about his team, and while he was talking about basketball, that sentiment has clearly infected the entire athletic department.
Why the Hardwood is a Different Beast
If football belongs to the Bearcats right now, the basketball court is a "Hilton South" situation.
Take a look at what happened in the 2025 Big 12 Tournament. Iowa State didn't just win; they suffocated Cincinnati 76-56. Tamin Lipsey and Joshua Jefferson are basically a two-man wrecking crew.
Fast forward to today, January 17, 2026. The Bearcats are hosting No. 2 Iowa State at Fifth Third Arena.
Think about that ranking. Number 2.
Iowa State is 16-1. They are elite. They shoot 40.3% from three-point range as a team, which is frankly ridiculous. Cincinnati, on the other hand, is struggling to find the bottom of the net, shooting just over 30% from deep.
So, how does Cincinnati keep this close?
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- Baba Miller: He just dropped 25 on Colorado. He’s the X-factor.
- Home Court: 9-2 at home is no joke. The atmosphere at Fifth Third is hostile.
- The Glass: Cincinnati actually out-rebounds Iowa State on average (35.3 to 33.5).
If the Bearcats want to pull the upset today, they have to turn it into a rock fight. They can't out-skill Iowa State. They have to out-work them.
The Contrast in Styles
It’s fascinating to watch these two programs interact because they are mirrors of their coaches' personalities. T.J. Otzelberger has Iowa State playing with a surgical precision. They don't beat themselves. They rank 4th in the country in defensive efficiency.
Then you have Wes Miller. His teams are "kinda" erratic, but when they’re on, they can beat anyone.
The history here is still being written. Before 2023, these schools barely knew each other existed on a competitive level. Now? Every game feels like it has Big 12 title implications.
Real Talk: The Betting Angle
Most people see Iowa State as 6.5-point favorites today and think it's a lock.
It’s not.
Cincinnati is 0-7 as an underdog this season. That’s a terrifying stat if you’re a Bearcats fan. But they are also coming off a win against Colorado where they finally looked like they figured out their rotation.
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Iowa State is 3-1 in conference play. Their only real "weakness" is free-throw shooting (68.5%). If the game is tight in the final two minutes, that matters.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're watching Cincinnati vs Iowa State today or following the rivalry through the season, keep these specific things in mind to stay ahead of the curve:
- Watch the Turnovers: Iowa State lives on points off turnovers. If Cincinnati keeps it under 12, they have a legitimate chance to win.
- The Sorsby Factor: In football, keep an eye on Brendan Sorsby’s health. He is the engine. When he’s mobile, Iowa State’s 3-man rush can’t contain him.
- Recruiting Wars: Both schools are currently fighting over the same 4-star talent in the Midwest. Success in these head-to-head games is being used as a primary recruiting tool.
- Check the Line: If the basketball total is over 140, lean toward the under. Both teams prefer a slower, more deliberate pace in high-stakes Big 12 play.
The gap between these two programs is closing. While Iowa State currently holds the "prestige" card in basketball, Cincinnati’s victory in football showed that the Bearcats aren't intimidated by the Cardinal and Gold. This isn't a rivalry built on 100 years of hatred; it’s a rivalry built on 2 years of immediate, high-level competition. And honestly? That’s sometimes even better.
Monitor the live stats for the 2:00 PM EST tip-off today. If Baba Miller gets hot early, the No. 2 ranking for the Cyclones might be in serious jeopardy by sunset.
Pay attention to the rebounding battle in the first ten minutes. It’ll tell you everything you need to know about who wants it more.
Next Steps for the Die-Hard Fan: Check the latest Big 12 standings immediately after today’s game. The result will likely shift the seedings for the conference tournament significantly, especially with Cincinnati fighting to stay out of the bottom four and Iowa State hunting for a No. 1 seed. Stay tuned to the local beat reporters for injury updates on Jizzle James, as his availability changes the entire defensive dynamic for the Bearcats.