If you’ve spent any time at Great American Ball Park recently, you know the vibe. The humidity sticks to your skin, the smell of Skyline chili wafts through the air, and there is that familiar, nagging anxiety that usually starts around the fourth inning. But things feel different heading into 2026. For years, the Cincinnati Reds pitching rotation was basically a collection of "if onlys" and "what ifs." If only they stayed healthy. What if the young guys actually developed?
Honestly, the "if onlys" might be over.
The Reds are entering this season with something they haven't had in a generation: genuine, high-end depth. We aren't just talking about a couple of flamethrowers and some prayer. We’re talking about a group that posted the second-highest fWAR in baseball just two seasons ago and is now maturing into their collective prime.
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The Big Three: Greene, Abbott, and Lodolo
It all starts with Hunter Greene. Look, the guy makes history every time he steps on the mound just by sheer velocity, but the narrative changed last year. He stopped being "the kid who throws 102" and started being a pitcher. There were some whispers about him tipping pitches against the Dodgers late in '25, but the growth is undeniable. He’s the undisputed ace. If he’s healthy, the Reds have a chance every five days. Simple as that.
Then you’ve got Andrew Abbott. He’s the polar opposite of Greene in the best way possible. While Greene is pure power, Abbott is command and deception. He’s coming off an All-Star season, but the big hurdle for him in 2026 is the workload. He’s been a bit of a slow starter with shoulder maintenance issues in the past. If he can actually make all 32 starts this year, his value to this team is astronomical.
- Hunter Greene: High-ceiling power, learning the art of the "out" pitch.
- Andrew Abbott: The lefty stabilizer who needs a full 180-inning season.
- Nick Lodolo: Deceptive, nasty, and finally over the arbitration hurdles.
Lodolo is the wildcard. When he’s on, he’s arguably the most "unhittable" of the bunch because of that sweeping slider. But he’s had his share of IL stints. The Reds need him to be the guy who settled his arbitration case and focuses purely on being the hammer at the top of the order.
The New Blood and the "Blockbuster" Addition
Here’s where it gets interesting. The Cincinnati Reds pitching rotation isn't just a three-man show anymore. Brady Singer is here. Remember that midseason blockbuster? That wasn't just a rental move. Singer secured a $12.75 million salary for 2026, and he brings a veteran "bulldog" mentality that this young staff was missing. He’s the type of guy who will give you six innings of gritty baseball even when he doesn't have his best stuff.
And then there's Chase Burns.
The hype around Burns is real. He’s essentially the prize of the system right now, projected to slide right into the opening quintet. When you pair him with a healthy Rhett Lowder—who missed basically all of last season but is reportedly "full-go" for Spring Training—the back end of the rotation looks more like a front end.
Lowder is a fascinating case. He dazzled in a late '24 cameo (1.17 ERA!) before that arm tweak shut him down. The Reds are being careful, but you can’t hide that kind of talent forever.
The Nick Martinez Hole: Who Steps Up?
We have to talk about Nick Martinez leaving. It sucks. He was the ultimate "Swiss Army Knife" for this team. He accepted the $21 million qualifying offer last year and, while his ERA took a slight bump to 4.45, his 308 innings over two seasons were invaluable. He’s hitting free agency now, and the Reds basically admitted they can't match the $28 million market value some people are projecting for him.
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So, how do they replace 150 innings of "wherever you need me" pitching?
- Jakob Junis: He’s the name everyone is circling. He was solid in '24 before heading to Cleveland. He’s the logical "Martinez-lite" replacement.
- Internal Depth: Brandon Williamson and Chase Petty are the next men up.
- The Bullpen Shift: Expect guys like Graham Ashcraft to see more high-leverage relief work if they aren't in the starting five.
The reality is that the Reds are betting on their youth to fill the void left by veterans. It’s a gamble. But with the arbitration costs for guys like TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer climbing, they don't have much of a choice. They need the cheap, elite arms to carry the load while the offense finds its identity.
What Most People Get Wrong About Great American Ball Park
Everyone says Cincy is a "pitcher's graveyard." It’s a small park. The ball flies. We get it. But that’s exactly why this specific Cincinnati Reds pitching rotation is built the way it is. They aren't just looking for strikeout artists; they are looking for guys like Singer and Lowder who can induce ground balls.
If you can’t keep the ball in the park, you can't win in Cincinnati.
The defense behind them is going to be crucial too. With Elly De La Cruz anchoring shortstop and Matt McLain back at second, the infield defense is actually quite elite. That makes a huge difference for a pitcher who knows he doesn't have to strike out everyone to get an out.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Season
If you're following the Reds this year, keep your eye on these specific developments during Spring Training in Goodyear:
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- Watch the radar gun for Rhett Lowder. If he’s sitting in his usual velocity range without discomfort, he’s the frontrunner for the fifth spot over the veteran bridge options.
- Monitor Andrew Abbott’s buildup. He needs a "normal" spring. If he’s delayed or on a limited pitch count in March, expect a slow start to his season.
- The "Junis" Watch. If the Reds don't sign a veteran swingman by mid-February, they are putting an enormous amount of pressure on their Triple-A depth in Louisville.
The talent is there. The money is allocated. Now, it’s just about whether these arms can survive the 162-game grind without the wheels falling off. For the first time in a long time, the Reds aren't just hoping for good pitching—they’re actually expecting it.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep a close eye on the early March box scores. Specifically, look at the walk rates for the younger guys like Burns and Lowder. In the tiny confines of GABP, free passes are what usually lead to those back-breaking four-run innings that fans have grown to dread. If they can fill the zone, this rotation has "Division Title" written all over it.