Winning in the NFL is mostly about math and luck, but for the Kansas City Chiefs, it usually starts with Chris Jones. He’s the guy who moves like a cat despite weighing 310 pounds. Honestly, if you’ve watched a single Chiefs game in the last five years, you know the drill. Third down comes, the crowd at Arrowhead starts vibrating, and #95 suddenly teleports into the backfield to ruin some poor quarterback’s afternoon.
But things feel different now.
Coming off the 2025 season, the vibe in Kansas City isn't exactly "dynastic." For the first time in over a decade, the Chiefs missed the playoffs. It was a weird, grinding year where the defense felt human and the pass rush—usually a buzzsaw—basically flatlined. At the center of the storm is Chris Jones, a man who signed a staggering five-year, $158.75 million contract back in March 2024. When you’re taking up that much of the salary cap, "good" isn't enough. People expect dominance. And lately, the stats aren't matching the paycheck.
The Massive Contract Nobody Talks About Enough
Let's get into the weeds of the money because that’s where the real tension lives. In 2024, the Chiefs played a clever game with the cap. They gave Jones a $30 million signing bonus but kept his cap hit at a tiny $7.35 million. It was a "win now" move. But 2026 is where the bill comes due.
We are looking at a projected cap hit of $44,850,000 for Chris Jones in 2026.
Think about that. One interior defensive lineman is slated to take up nearly 15% of the team's entire budget. When Brett Veach signed that deal, the assumption was that Jones would remain the most disruptive force in football. However, the 2025 campaign saw him finish with just 7.0 sacks. In 2024, it was even lower at 5.0. For a guy who used to roll out of bed and get 10 or 15 sacks, those numbers are scary.
It's not just about the sacks, though. Analysts like Ryan Tracy have pointed out that his pressure rates are dipping. He’s still drawing double teams—that’s his superpower—but he isn't winning those one-on-ones with the same lightning get-off he had in 2022.
Why the Chiefs might actually pull the trigger on a trade
Is it crazy to think the Chiefs would trade the heartbeat of their defense? Maybe not. Remember the Tyreek Hill trade? Everyone thought the world was ending, then Kansas City went out and won two more Super Bowls.
There is a "potential out" in Jones' contract in 2027, but the 2026 offseason is the real fork in the road. If the Chiefs trade him before June 1, 2026, they could save about $15.6 million in cap space. More importantly, they’d get a haul of draft picks. With a roster that suddenly has holes at edge rusher and wide receiver, those picks are like gold.
Teams like the Chicago Bears or Tennessee Titans always seem to be in the mix for veteran talent. They have the cap space. They need the leadership. And honestly, Jones probably still has a "game-wrecker" year or two left in the tank if he's in the right system.
What Most People Get Wrong About His Decline
People look at the 7.0 sacks from 2025 and say he’s "washed." That's a lazy take.
If you look at the Next Gen Stats, Jones still has one of the quickest "get-offs" in the league at 0.85 seconds. He’s still 6'6". He’s still a nightmare to block. The problem in 2025 wasn't necessarily Chris Jones; it was the lack of help around him. George Karlaftis is a stud, but without a consistent threat on the other edge, offensive lines could just tilt everything toward Jones.
You’ve gotta realize that playing defensive tackle is like being in a car crash 50 times a game. At 31 years old, those crashes start to hurt a bit more.
The "Spagnuolo Factor"
Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs' defensive coordinator, loves to move Jones around. We’ve seen him line up at nose tackle, three-tech, and even as a wide-nine defensive end. This versatility is why he’s a first-team All-Pro. But it also puts a lot of mileage on his legs. In the 2024 season, he played nearly 80% of the defensive snaps. That is an insane workload for a man that size.
If the Chiefs want to keep him, they basically have to find a way to lower that snap count. They need a rotation. But they can't afford a rotation because his contract is so huge. It’s a classic Catch-22.
What Really Happened in the 2025 Season
It was a disaster. There’s no other way to put it.
The Chiefs started 0-2 for the first time since 2014. They couldn't close games. The defense, which had been the backbone of the Super Bowl LVIII run, looked tired. They finished tied for 22nd in the league with only 35 total sacks. When you can’t get to the quarterback with four guys, your secondary gets shredded.
Even Patrick Mahomes couldn't bail them out this time. The lack of a dominant pass rush meant opponents were staying on the field, keeping the Chiefs' offense on the sideline.
- Week 11 vs. Denver: Jones had 1 sack but the team lost 19-22.
- Week 15 vs. Chargers: Jones had 0 sacks. The defense couldn't get a stop late.
- Week 17 vs. Broncos: Another loss. The pressure just wasn't there.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Offseason
If you’re a fan or a front-office dreamer, here is what actually needs to happen to fix the Chris Jones and the Chiefs situation:
- Restructure or Extension: The $44 million cap hit is a non-starter. The Chiefs must either extend him to spread that money out or convince him to take a pay cut (unlikely).
- Identify the Trade Value: If a team offers a first-round pick and a third-round pick, Brett Veach has to answer the phone. You can't let a declining asset walk for nothing in two years.
- Draft High-End Edge Talent: Whether Jones stays or goes, the Chiefs need a twitchy, 10-sack-a-year edge rusher to take the double teams off the interior.
- Manage the Snaps: If he stays in KC, his snap count needs to drop to about 60%. Use him like a closing pitcher in baseball—keep him fresh for the fourth quarter.
The era of the Chiefs' defense being "Chris Jones and some guys" is over. Whether he’s wearing a different jersey in 2026 or leads a restructured unit in Kansas City, the math has to change. The dynasty depends on it.