If you’re trying to ship a container of California almonds or a fleet of Ohio-made tractor parts to Shanghai right now, you’ve probably noticed the math doesn't look like it used to. The trade landscape between Washington and Beijing has been a rollercoaster, especially as we’ve rolled into early 2026. Honestly, keeping track of what tariffs does china have on us goods feels like trying to read a menu in a windstorm. Things shift fast. One day there’s a "truce," and the next, a new list of retaliatory duties drops because of a dispute over semiconductor tech or maritime fees.
But here’s the reality: while the headlines focus on the "Trade War," the actual costs on the ground are driven by a complex layering of taxes. It’s not just one flat rate. It’s a stack. You’ve got China’s Most-Favored-Nation (MFN) rates, then you pile on the retaliatory duties from the 2018-2019 era, and then you add the new 2025-2026 "reciprocal" hikes.
The Current State of Play in 2026
As of January 2026, the average Chinese tariff on American products is hovering around 21.9%. That might sound manageable until you compare it to the 8% average back in early 2017. Basically, US exporters are playing the game on "Hard Mode" compared to their European or Southeast Asian competitors.
However, there’s a bit of a breather right now. In late 2025, Beijing and Washington hammered out a one-year "fragile truce." China agreed to suspend the most aggressive retaliatory tariffs they’d announced since March 2025. This was a direct response to the US softening some of its own new "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" (IEEPA) tariffs.
If you're looking for a silver lining, it's the Tariff Exclusion Process. China has extended this until December 31, 2026. This allows Chinese importers to apply for a "hall pass" on certain US goods if they can prove they can’t get them elsewhere. It's the only reason some US businesses are still afloat in that market.
What Tariffs Does China Have on US Goods Right Now?
To understand the hit to your wallet, you have to look at the specific sectors. China doesn't treat a bushel of wheat the same way it treats a Boeing 737.
The High Stakes of Agriculture
Farmers usually take the first punch in these trade spats. For a while in 2025, the rates were astronomical—we're talking 80% or higher in some retaliatory windows.
Currently, thanks to the November 2025 deal, many of these have been rolled back to their "baseline" trade war levels. But "baseline" still isn't cheap. Soybeans, the poster child of US exports, still face significant pressure. China has shifted much of its buying to Brazil and Argentina. They’ve even committed to buying 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028, but that’s a "commitment," not a guarantee.
Other items like beef, pork, and certain fruits are seeing a weird mix. While some retaliatory duties are suspended, the MFN rates remain. If you’re exporting specialty crops like oranges or nuts, you’re likely still paying a combined rate that's 25% to 50% higher than a decade ago.
The Tech and Auto Squeeze
This is where it gets really thorny. China has been cutting tariffs for the rest of the world to support its own "high-tech" and "green energy" goals while keeping the screws tight on the US.
- Automobiles: US-made cars face a massive disadvantage. While China lowered auto tariffs for many nations to around 15% in recent years, US-made vehicles have often been hit with an additional 25% retaliatory tax. Even with the recent de-escalation, a Ford or Tesla made in the US and shipped to China is significantly more expensive than one made locally or imported from Europe.
- Semiconductors: This is the frontline of the 2026 trade tension. While China wants the chips, they’ve used "antitrust" investigations and selective duties as leverage. As of this month, Beijing has technically "terminated" some of these investigations as part of the one-year deal, but high-end logic circuits still face intense scrutiny at the border.
- Chemicals and Medical Devices: China actually wants these. To support their aging population, they’ve been cutting import duties on pharmaceuticals and certain medical instruments across the board. If you're in the med-tech space, you might find the "China barrier" surprisingly lower than if you were selling, say, hardwood logs.
The "Chokepoint" Strategy
You sort of have to admire the strategy, even if it hurts. Beijing has realized that instead of just taxing US corn, they can control the export of things the US needs.
In late 2024 and through 2025, China weaponized its monopoly on Rare Earth Elements. They limited exports of gallium, germanium, and graphite. While the January 2026 status shows they are issuing "general licenses" for these again, it’s a temporary gesture. They've shown they can turn off the tap whenever they want, which is its own kind of "reverse tariff."
Navigating the 2026 Export Minefield
So, if you’re a business owner or a logistics manager, what do you actually do with this information? You can't just wait for the trade war to end; it’s basically the new normal.
📖 Related: Leveraged Funding Credit Colin Yurcisin: The Real Story Behind the System
First, you've gotta check the Harmonized System (HS) codes. Tariffs are applied at an incredibly granular level. A 10-digit code can be the difference between a 5% duty and a 35% duty. Don't assume that because "electronics" are mentioned in a trade deal, your specific circuit board is covered.
Second, leverage the market-based exclusion process. It is still active. If your Chinese buyer is willing to do the paperwork, they can often get the retaliatory portion of the tariff waived. This is how many US companies are staying price-competitive right now.
Third, keep a very close eye on the November 10, 2026, deadline. That's when the current "truce" is set to expire. If negotiations sour over the summer—maybe because of the ongoing TikTok drama or semiconductor export controls—those suspended 2025 tariffs could snap back overnight.
Actionable Next Steps for Exporters
- Audit your HS Codes: Re-verify the 8-digit and 10-digit codes for your top three products. Small errors here lead to massive overpayments at the Chinese border.
- Coordinate with Chinese Importers: Ask your partners in China if they are actively using the Market-Based Tariff Exclusion system. If they aren't, you're leaving money on the table.
- Diversify Logistics: Look into shipping through Free Trade Zones (FTZs) or considering "Substantial Transformation" in third-party countries like Vietnam or Mexico, though be careful—customs authorities are getting much stricter about "country of origin" rules in 2026.
- Monitor the "Reciprocal" List: The US Trade Representative (USTR) and China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) update their lists frequently. Subscribe to their official bulletins directly rather than relying on secondary news summaries.
The trade relationship isn't going back to the way it was in 2016. It’s a managed, often messy, tug-of-war. Staying informed isn't just about following the news; it's about protecting your margins in a market that is increasingly volatile.