Honestly, if you’ve been watching the headlines lately, it feels like the world is tilting on a totally different axis. Just this month, specifically around January 3, 2026, the U.S. military operation in Venezuela—aimed at ousting Nicolás Maduro—sent shockwaves straight to Beijing and Moscow. It wasn't just about a change of government in Caracas. It was a massive strategic blow to the billions of dollars China and Russia had sunk into South American soil.
The China and Russia news cycle is currently dominated by this "squeeze." While Washington is busy rounding up tankers and seizing what they call "ghost ships" carrying Russian oil, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin are basically huddling closer than ever. But don't be fooled by the high-fives in the press releases. There is a lot of friction under the surface that most people aren't talking about.
The Energy Squeeze and the Power of Siberia 2 Hold-up
You’d think with Europe basically cutting off Russian gas, China would be jumping at the chance to buy it all. Not quite. The Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is the big elephant in the room. This thing is supposed to carry 50 billion cubic meters of gas from the Yamal Peninsula through Mongolia and into northern China.
Moscow is desperate. They need the cash. Gazprom reported a staggering net loss recently—their first big hit since the late 90s. But Beijing? They’re playing it cool. They know they have the leverage. China already gets plenty of gas from Turkmenistan and via LNG from places like Qatar.
Why the deal is stuck
- Price Wars: China wants the gas at dirt-cheap, domestic Russian prices.
- Timeline: Beijing doesn't actually need the extra volume until the mid-2030s.
- Security: Xi doesn't want to be "Europe'd"—becoming too dependent on one single source that could be cut off if things get weird.
Russia is basically ready to start digging without a signed contract just to show they’re doing something. It’s a bit of a "pick-me" energy move from the Kremlin, and honestly, it shows who really wears the pants in this "no-limits" partnership right now.
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Military Drills: More Than Just "Practice"
Early January 2026 saw some serious movement on the water. The Mosi 3 naval drills just kicked off off the coast of South Africa. It’s a trio: China, Russia, and Iran.
The South Africans are catching a lot of heat for this, especially from the Trump administration. But for the "Big Three," these drills are a massive middle finger to the West. China sent the Tangshan, a high-tech destroyer, while Russia sent the Stoikiy from its Baltic Fleet.
But check this out: at the same time, the Chinese Ministry of Defense confirmed they’re sending troops into Russia for "military training" as part of the annual cooperation plan. They claim it has nothing to do with the "current international situation," which is hilarious given that the war in Ukraine has been grinding on for nearly four years now.
The Disinformation Game in the Age of AI
One of the wildest things happening in China and Russia news right now is how they’re using social media to react to the Venezuela situation. Researchers have spotted a deluge of AI-generated content.
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Chinese state broadcaster CCTV even pushed out a parody video using an AI-generated meme song to mock U.S. foreign policy. It featured a bald eagle dancing in a suit, bragging about oil. It sounds like something out of a fever dream, but it’s real state-sponsored strategy. They’re trying to paint the U.S. as an "unreliable player" to anyone who will listen, especially in the Global South.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Alliance
People see the joint statements and think it’s a formal military alliance like NATO. It isn't. Not even close.
China is still very careful. They haven't officially sent weapons to Russia for the Ukraine conflict—at least not in a way that would trigger massive "secondary sanctions" that would wreck the Chinese economy. They’re selling "dual-use" tech, sure—chips, drone parts, ball bearings—but they’re terrified of losing access to Western markets.
Russia, meanwhile, is becoming a "vassal state" in everything but name. They provide the raw materials (oil, gas, timber) and China provides the tech and the lifeline. It's a lopsided relationship, and Putin definitely knows it.
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The 2026 Outlook: What Happens Next?
So, where does this leave you? If you’re watching the markets or just trying to understand if we’re headed for a bigger conflict, keep your eyes on these three things.
1. Watch the Arctic.
NATO is getting really twitchy about the "Polar Silk Road." As the ice melts, sea lanes are opening up. Both China and Russia are building icebreakers and setting up outposts. This is the next frontier for "geopolitical brinkmanship."
2. The Oil Price Cap.
With the U.S. getting aggressive about seizing Russian tankers, look for oil prices to fluctuate around the $60 mark. If Russia can't move its "shadow fleet," they might have to cut production, which could actually help China's competitors in the long run.
3. The 15th Five-Year Plan.
Xi Jinping is currently syncing China’s upcoming economic plan (2026-2030) with Russia’s development strategies. This isn't just about trade; it's about building a parallel financial system that doesn't use the U.S. dollar.
Actionable Insights for You
- Diversify your news sources: Don't just read Western outlets. Look at South China Morning Post or TASS (with a huge grain of salt) to see how the narratives are being shaped.
- Monitor "Dual-Use" Sanctions: If you're an investor, keep a close eye on any Chinese tech companies that get slapped with U.S. sanctions. That’s usually the first sign of escalating tensions.
- Energy Costs: If the Power of Siberia 2 actually gets a "green light" on pricing this year, expect a long-term shift in global LNG flows.
The world is getting smaller, and the "tightening China-Russia continental alliance," as some experts call it, is the most important story of the decade. It’s messy, it’s transactional, and it’s definitely not going away.
Next Steps to Stay Informed:
To truly understand the trajectory of this partnership, you should track the monthly trade volume data released by the Chinese General Administration of Customs. Specifically, look for shifts in "Electromechanical products" exports to Russia, as this is the primary category for the dual-use technology that currently defines their strategic cooperation. Additionally, monitor the results of the BRICS+ summitry later this year to see if more nations are adopting the "de-dollarized" payment systems being pushed by the Beijing-Moscow axis.