If you’re checking your inbox every five minutes for a selection email from Chicago, you’re not alone. But honestly? The math is getting brutal. The Bank of America Chicago Marathon used to be the "easy" major. For years, runners joked that if you had a pulse and a credit card, you were basically in.
Those days are dead.
The 2026 Chicago Marathon lottery results, which started rolling out in December 2025, confirmed what most of us feared. Interest in the World Marathon Majors has hit a fever pitch that the streets of the Windy City literally cannot hold. We are looking at a record-shattering 200,000 applicants for the 2026 race.
Think about that for a second.
The Math Behind the 2026 Chicago Marathon Lottery Odds
When you look at the raw numbers, the "odds" are a bit of a moving target because not everyone in the field is a lottery entrant. For 2026, the race is expected to cap the field at around 55,000 participants. That sounds like a lot until you realize that a massive chunk of those bibs never even touches the lottery bucket.
You’ve got time qualifiers (the "fast" people), legacy finishers who have run five times in the last decade, and charity runners. After you peel away those guaranteed spots, the "non-guaranteed" pool—aka the lottery—is fighting over what's left.
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With 200,000 people applying for 2026, and only an estimated 15,000 to 18,000 spots typically available for the general drawing, your actual chicago marathon lottery odds have plummeted to somewhere in the neighborhood of 8% to 10%.
That is a terrifyingly far cry from the 2025 cycle, where 160,000 people applied and roughly 33% of lottery hopefuls got a spot. In just one year, your chances of getting in basically got sliced in half. It’s starting to look a lot more like London or Tokyo, and that’s a hard pill to swallow for the average mid-pack runner.
Why the Surge? The "Post-Pandemic" Boom is Now Just "The Norm"
Everyone thought the running boom of 2021 would fade. It didn't. Instead, it localized into a cult-like obsession with the Six Star Medal. If you aren't familiar, that's the giant "pizza" medal you get for finishing Tokyo, Boston, London, Berlin, Chicago, and New York City.
Because Chicago is a flat, fast course, it's the primary target for people looking to tick off their first Major or set a Personal Best. But there's also the "influence" factor. You can't scroll through Instagram or TikTok without seeing a "Day in the Life of a Marathoner" vlog. This digital visibility has turned the Chicago Marathon from a local race into a global "must-have" status symbol.
Breaking Down the Entry Methods
Since the lottery is becoming a statistical graveyard, you've got to look at the other ways people are getting in. It's not all luck.
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1. The Time Qualifier (The Fast Track)
If you can run like the wind, you don’t have to care about the lottery. For 2026, the standards are tight. For men aged 16–34, you need a sub-2:50:00. For women in that same age bracket, it’s sub-3:20:00. If you have that certificate, you’re in. Period.
2. The Legacy Finisher (The Loyalty Reward)
This is for the Chicago die-hards. If you have finished the Chicago Marathon five or more times within the last 10 years, you get a guaranteed spot. It’s the race's way of saying "thanks for the thousands of dollars in registration fees."
3. The Chicago Distance Series (The Local's Secret)
This is honestly the smartest way to bypass the lottery if you live anywhere near Illinois. If you finish the Shamrock Shuffle (8K), the Chicago 13.1 (half marathon), and the full Chicago Marathon in the same year, you get a guaranteed entry for the following year.
4. Charity (The "Pay to Play" with a Heart)
If the lottery rejects you, this is the only way left. But even this is getting harder. For the 2026 race, the fundraising minimum for most charities is $2,200. And these spots sell out. Usually, within weeks of the lottery results being released, the major charities like the American Cancer Society or Team PAWS are completely full.
Is the Lottery Fair?
There’s always a lot of grumbling on Reddit and in running clubs about whether the lottery is "rigged" toward first-timers or international runners. The race organizers, Bank of America, swear it’s a random draw.
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However, we do know they remove duplicates. If you try to be "clever" and sign up three times with three different emails, their system will likely catch you and toss all three applications in the trash. Don't do it.
The reality of the chicago marathon lottery odds is that it’s simply a supply and demand problem. When 200,000 people want 55,000 spots, and 35,000 of those spots are already spoken for by qualifiers and charities, the math just doesn't work in your favor.
What to Do if You Get the "We're Sorry" Email
First off, don't panic. Getting rejected from Chicago is now the standard experience. It doesn't mean your training season is over.
You have about a 48-hour window after the lottery results are announced to snag a charity spot before the "minimum" fundraising requirements jump up. Usually, if you sign up before the lottery, the minimum is lower (around $1,750). Once the lottery results drop, the demand for charity bibs spikes, and that minimum often hits $2,200 or more.
If you’re not up for fundraising, look at the International Tour Operators. If you live outside the U.S., you can often buy a package that includes a hotel stay and a guaranteed bib. It’s expensive, sure, but it’s a guaranteed ticket to Grant Park.
Actionable Steps for the Next Cycle
If you’re reading this and thinking about 2027, you need a strategy. Don't just rely on the luck of the draw.
- Run the Distance Series: If you are within driving distance of Chicago, sign up for the Shamrock Shuffle and the Chicago 13.1. It is the only "guaranteed" path that doesn't involve running a 2:50 marathon or raising $2,000.
- Set a Qualifying Time Now: Don't wait until the month before applications open. Find a fast, USATF-certified course (like the Indianapolis Monumental or Grandma’s Marathon) and get that time in the books.
- Budget for Charity Early: If you know you aren't fast enough to qualify, start your fundraising page the day the application window opens. It’s much easier to raise $2,200 over six months than it is to scramble in the summer.
- Check the 2027 Dates: Applications for the 2027 race will likely open in late October 2026. Put a reminder in your calendar now. Missing the window is the only 100% way to ensure your odds are zero.
The Chicago Marathon is a bucket-list experience for a reason. The crowd on 18th Street in Pilsen, the "cheer tunnel" in Boystown, and the sprint down Columbus Drive are worth the hassle. Just recognize that as the race grows, the lottery is no longer a plan—it's a prayer.