It is finally happening. If you grew up watching the Bears, you know the drill: great defense, questionable quarterbacking, and a whole lot of "wait until next year." But as we sit here in mid-January 2026, the script has been flipped. The Chicago Bears playoff chances aren't just a mathematical "what-if" anymore—they are a living, breathing reality as the team prepares to host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Divisional Round.
Honestly, the city is vibrating. We just watched Caleb Williams orchestrate a 31-27 comeback win over the Packers in the Wild Card round, and for the first time in forever, it feels like Chicago actually has the better quarterback in a playoff matchup. That isn't hype; it’s just what happened.
The State of the Chicago Bears Playoff Chances Right Now
The Bears finished the 2025-26 regular season with an 11-6 record, clinching the NFC North for the first time since 2018. They locked up the No. 2 seed in the NFC, thanks in part to a wild Week 18 where the Eagles stumbled against Washington. This gave Chicago home-field advantage for at least the first two rounds.
After bouncing Green Bay from the bracket last Saturday, the "chances" conversation has shifted from making the playoffs to winning the whole thing. According to recent sportsbook data from Fox Sports, the Bears currently sit at +1600 to win Super Bowl 60. That gives them roughly a 6% implied probability of lifting the Lombardi Trophy. It sounds small, but when you consider they started the season at +5000, the trajectory is massive.
Why the Offense Is Actually... Good?
It’s weird to say, right? Usually, the Bears win by gritting out 13-10 defensive battles. Not this year. Under head coach Ben Johnson, this unit has become a top-10 scoring machine, averaging nearly 26 points per game.
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Caleb Williams just broke Erik Kramer’s 1995 franchise record for passing yards in a single season, finishing with 3,942. He fell just short of that 4,000-yard milestone, but nobody at Soldier Field cares about that right now. They care about the 27 touchdowns and the fact that he only threw seven interceptions all year. He’s playing like a vet in his sophomore season.
Breaking Down the Divisional Matchup: Bears vs. Rams
This Sunday, January 18, 2026, the Los Angeles Rams come to town. This is the biggest hurdle yet. The Rams are bringing the league's top-ranked offense to a frozen Soldier Field, and the matchup is a total clash of styles.
The Rams are favorites by 3.5 points. That tracks. They've got a high-flying attack, but they’re coming into a stadium where the wind-chill is expected to be a factor. Historically, these teams are neck-and-neck—their last four meetings resulted in two wins and two losses apiece.
The X-Factors for a Win
If Chicago wants to keep their Super Bowl dreams alive, three things have to go right:
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- Pressure on the Pocket: Montez Sweat has been a monster this year with 10 sacks. He needs to disrupt the Rams' rhythm early.
- The Health of Rome Odunze: He’s been dealing with a foot injury. He was a full participant in practice on Friday, which is huge. The Bears have won six straight games where he’s been on the field.
- D’Andre Swift’s Ground Game: Swift hit a career-high 1,087 rushing yards this season. If the Bears can run the ball and keep the Rams' offense on the sideline, they control the clock.
The defense, led by Kevin Byard’s seven interceptions and Tremaine Edmunds’ 112 tackles, has been the "bend but don't break" variety. They rank 23rd in points allowed, which is the scary part. They give up yards, but they’ve been incredible at forcing turnovers in the red zone.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Team
There’s a narrative that the Bears are "lucky" because of their late-season schedule. People point to the overtime win against the Packers in Week 16 or the close calls against the Vikings.
But look at the evidence. They went into Philadelphia in Week 13 and beat the defending NFC champs 24-15. That wasn't luck. That was a disciplined team winning a physical game on the road. The Chicago Bears playoff chances are built on a foundation of a revamped offensive line—shoutout to Joe Thuney and Darnell Wright—and a quarterback who doesn't panic when the pocket collapses.
The Ben Johnson Effect
We have to talk about the coaching. Bringing in Ben Johnson changed everything. The play-calling isn't predictable anymore. We’re seeing Colston Loveland, the tight end who led the team with 713 receiving yards, being used in creative ways that just didn't happen in years past. It's modern football in a city that has been stuck in 1985 for four decades.
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Path to the Super Bowl: What's Next?
If the Bears beat the Rams on Sunday, they’ll likely be heading to Seattle for the NFC Championship, assuming the Seahawks take care of the 49ers.
The path is difficult, but for the first time in a generation, it's visible. The roster is relatively healthy—only Nick McCloud is officially ruled out for the Divisional game. Everyone else, including Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Odunze, looks ready to go.
Actionable Insights for Fans
If you're following the playoff run, keep an eye on these specific metrics:
- Red Zone Efficiency: The Bears have been scoring touchdowns on 62% of red zone trips over the last three weeks. If that drops against the Rams, they’re in trouble.
- Third Down Defense: Watch for Grady Jarrett. He’s been the "glue" in the middle. If he can't stop the interior run, the Rams will move the chains all night.
- Live Betting Values: With the Bears as 3.5-point underdogs at home, there's value in the moneyline if you believe the Chicago weather will neutralize the Rams' speed.
The city hasn't seen a home playoff run like this in twenty years. Whether they win it all or not, the "Same Old Bears" label is officially dead. This is a new era of Chicago football, and the numbers finally back up the hope.