So, it actually happened. If you’re reading this in early 2026, you’ve lived through a year that basically redefined American politics. Donald Trump didn’t just win; he pulled off a comeback that honestly felt like something out of a screenplay.
He’s the 47th President now.
Back in 2024, the "chances of Trump winning" were the only thing anyone could talk about. Pundits were obsessed. Every single day, the needle moved. But looking back from where we are today—January 2026—the reality of how he did it is way more nuanced than the "red wave" or "blue wall" narratives we heard on repeat. It wasn't just luck.
The Math Behind the Victory
People forget how close it actually was. Trump ended up with 312 electoral votes, leaving Kamala Harris with 226. That sounds like a blowout, right?
Not exactly.
The popular vote was much tighter. Trump took it by about 1.5%. He got 49.8% of the total vote. That’s a thin margin. If a few thousand people in Pennsylvania or Michigan had stayed home, we’d be living in a very different 2026.
🔗 Read more: Recent Obituaries in Charlottesville VA: What Most People Get Wrong
What really changed? The "changers." Pew Research actually dug into this. About a quarter of the people who voted in 2024 did something totally different than they did in 2020. Some were "switchers"—people who literally swapped parties. Others were "drop-offs" who just didn't show up. Harris lost a lot of the Biden 2020 coalition to the couch. 15% of Biden’s previous voters didn’t vote at all.
That’s huge.
You’ve also got the "new and returning" voters. Trump crushed it here. Young men, in particular, turned out for him in ways we hadn’t seen before. He also made massive gains with Hispanic voters. It wasn't the old-school GOP base doing all the heavy lifting. It was a weird, new, multi-ethnic coalition that caught the DNC completely off guard.
Why the Chances of Trump Winning Stayed High
Honestly, the economy was the sledgehammer. It didn't matter what the "top-line" numbers said in early 2024. People felt broke. Inflation from the 2021-2023 period was a ghost that haunted the Harris campaign.
Trump leaned into that. Hard.
💡 You might also like: Trump New Gun Laws: What Most People Get Wrong
He promised economic renewal. He promised to get us out of "foreign entanglements" like the Gaza war and the situation in Ukraine. Whether he’s actually doing that now is a different debate—we've seen the 2025 stock market volatility and the "Liberation Day" tariffs—but the promise is what won the day.
The Lawsuits That Didn't Work
Remember the indictments? Everyone thought the 86 felony counts would be the end. Instead, they were fuel.
Trump and his team successfully framed the trials as "election interference." Whether you believe that or not, 49% of the country saw him as a victim of a "rigged" system. By the time he was convicted in May 2024, his fundraising actually spiked. It was a "rally around the flag" moment, but the flag was a Mugshot.
Then came July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania. That assassination attempt changed the vibe of the race instantly. The image of him with his fist up became the definitive visual of the campaign. It moved the "chances of Trump winning" from a toss-up to a likely outcome in many people's minds.
What the 2026 Midterms Tell Us
We’re currently heading into the midterms. If you look at the polls from this month—January 2026—the honeymoon is definitely over. His approval is sitting around 36% to 43% depending on who you ask.
📖 Related: Why Every Tornado Warning MN Now Live Alert Demands Your Immediate Attention
Why the drop?
- The Tariffs: His trade policies have caused some real pain at the grocery store.
- Project 2025 Realities: While Trump distanced himself from it during the campaign, his administration has implemented about 40% of those policies already.
- The Gridlock: We had a government shutdown in late 2025. It wasn't pretty.
The very voters who gave him the win—the independents and the "swing" Hispanics—are moving away again. Brookings is reporting that Democrats currently lead the generic ballot by about 5 points.
The Takeaway for Future Elections
If you’re trying to understand the chances of Trump winning (or anyone like him in the future), stop looking at the loud people on Twitter.
Look at the "drop-offs." The 2024 election was decided by the people who didn't show up for the incumbent. When a significant chunk of a party's base feels the status quo isn't working, they don't necessarily vote for the other guy—they just stay home.
Next Steps for Your Political Research:
- Audit the 2024 County Maps: Look at the "swing" counties in the Rust Belt. Most shifted by less than 2%, but that was the entire ballgame.
- Track the 2026 Midterm Filings: Watch how many Republicans are distancing themselves from the 10% credit card interest cap or the "Liberation Day" tariffs.
- Monitor the Supreme Court Docket: There are hundreds of challenges to Trump’s 225 executive orders from 2025. Those rulings will decide how much of his agenda actually sticks through 2028.