You’ve felt it. That mid-October morning where you actually consider a light jacket, only to be sweating through your shirt by 2:00 PM while standing in a pumpkin patch. It’s the classic Central Texas bait-and-switch.
Honestly, calling it "fall" in Austin, Waco, or San Antonio is a bit of a stretch. We usually just call it "not-quite-summer-but-still-hot." If you’re looking for a definitive central texas fall weather forecast, you have to look at the tug-of-war between the fading Gulf moisture and those first real Canadian cold fronts that finally have enough muscle to cross the Red River.
The La Niña Factor: What’s Actually Happening?
Everything right now is being steered by a weak La Niña. For us, that basically means the jet stream stays tucked up north.
It keeps the big, juicy storm systems away and lets the heat linger way longer than it has any right to. NOAA and the Climate Prediction Center have been leaning into a 60% to 75% chance of this pattern sticking around through early 2026.
What does that look like on the ground? Warm. Very warm.
Most of our local meteorologists, like the crew at KVUE in Austin or the Texas Storm Chasers, are tracking a "slow burn" to the season. Instead of a crisp transition, we’re seeing high temperatures frequently topping 80°F well into late October. It's a "second summer" vibe that stresses out our live oaks and keeps our AC units humming when they should be resting.
Rainfall—Or the Lack Thereof
Last year, we had some wild whiplash. Remember those weirdly heavy July rains? They were great, but they didn't fix the deep-seated drought that’s been eating at the Edwards Aquifer for years.
- September was brutal. Camp Mabry only saw about 0.08 inches of rain. That’s basically a heavy mist.
- October is technically our second-wettest month on average, but with La Niña in charge, the forecast is tilting toward "drier than normal."
- November is the wildcard. Sometimes we get a "Blue Norther" that brings a localized deluge, but the 2025-2026 outlook isn't promising much in the way of drought relief.
When Does It Actually Get Cold?
If you’re waiting for the first freeze to kill off the mosquitoes, don't hold your breath.
The average first freeze date for Waco is November 21. In Austin, it’s usually closer to November 26, though if you’re out in the Hill Country—places like Dripping Springs or Wimberley—you might see frost by mid-month.
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But averages are just math.
I’ve seen Decembers where we’re wearing shorts on Christmas Day. In fact, the National Weather Service records show the latest first freeze in Waco didn't happen until December 21 back in 1998. With the current "winter warmth" outlook, we might be looking at a similar delay this year.
What the Farmers’ Almanac Says
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a "mostly mild" winter with "pockets of wild." They’re flagging mid-November as a potential window for the first real cold snap.
They also mentioned a chance of "flirty, flurry fall" weather, but let’s be real: in Central Texas, "snow" usually just means your windshield gets a little slushy for ten minutes before it turns back into mud.
Survival Tips for the Central Texas Shift
Since the central texas fall weather forecast is looking warm and dry, your lifestyle has to adapt. It’s not just about what you wear; it’s about keeping your property from falling apart in the heat.
Water your trees. Seriously. Even if we get a stray shower, the "thirstier" atmosphere caused by 85-degree days in October sucks moisture out of the ground faster than you’d think. Large oaks need deep watering to survive the stress of a dry fall.
Layering is a survival skill. The temperature swing can be 30 degrees in a single day. Wear a base layer that can breathe, because that morning "chill" is a lie.
Watch the burn bans. With the lack of rain, fire risk is creeping back up. Even if your county hasn't officially issued a ban yet, the cured, dry grasses are like tinder right now.
Prepare for "Cedar Fever" early. Since it’s staying warm, the Ashe Juniper trees (which everyone calls Mountain Cedar) might start their pollen dump earlier or more intensely. If you’re a sufferer, start your meds before the first big front hits in November.
The Big Picture for 2026
Looking further out, the La Niña pattern is expected to weaken by spring 2026. That’s when we might finally see a shift back to "neutral" conditions, which usually brings more consistent rain to the Brazos River basin and the Hill Country.
For now, expect a lot of sun, dusty hiking trails, and the kind of weather that makes you wonder if we’ll ever actually see a real winter.
Actionable Insights for the Season:
- Gardeners: Don't plant your "cool weather" greens too early; the lingering heat will bolt your lettuce in three days. Wait for a consistent drop in nighttime lows.
- Homeowners: Check your irrigation systems. A dry fall is the "flash drought" window where foundation cracks start to show.
- Hikers: Bring more water than you think. 82 degrees in October feels a lot more draining than 82 in May because the humidity is often lower and the sun is still quite intense.
Stay weather-aware, keep an eye on those Tuesday cold front updates, and maybe don't put the summer clothes in storage just yet.