So, you’re looking at your draft board, and CeeDee Lamb is staring back at you. Maybe he's falling a few spots. Maybe you’re wondering if that massive 2023 season was a one-hit-wonder peak or if the "disappointment" of 2024 and 2025 is the new normal.
Let’s be real for a second. In the world of fantasy football, we have a bad habit of getting bored with greatness. We start looking for the shiny new toy—the George Pickens breakout or whatever rookie is lighting up camp—and we forget that volume is the only thing that actually keeps us sane during a 17-week season.
Lamb is basically the personification of volume. Even in a "down" 2025 where he missed four games with a high-ankle sprain, he still cleared 1,000 yards. That's his floor. A floor that most WR2s would kill for as their ceiling.
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The CeeDee Lamb Fantasy Football Reality Check
If you owned Lamb last year, you probably felt like you got burned. He finished with 75 catches for 1,077 yards and only 3 touchdowns. Honestly, those 3 touchdowns were a gut punch. You draft a guy in the first round expecting double-digit scores, and he gives you the same touchdown production as a random waiver wire tight end.
But look at the context. Dak Prescott missed half of 2024, and the 2025 season was a mess of injuries and a weirdly dysfunctional Dallas defense that kept the offense in bad scripts. When Dak and CeeDee are both on the field, the chemistry is almost telepathic. In 2025, Lamb still commanded a 23.1% target share despite the arrival of George Pickens.
The "Pickens Problem" is actually a myth. People think Pickens taking 1,200 yards and 9 touchdowns out of the offense hurts Lamb. I’d argue it’s the opposite. For years, defenses could just bracket Lamb and dare Jalen Tolbert to beat them. Now? You can’t just ignore Pickens. That leaves Lamb in the slot, where he is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the NFC.
Why the 2025 "Dip" is a Buying Opportunity
- Injury Regression: High-ankle sprains are notorious for sapping lateral quickness. Lamb returned in Week 7 but admitted he wasn't 100%. A full offseason of health usually leads to a bounce-back in YAC (Yards After Catch).
- Touchdown Luck: In 2023, he had 12 TDs. In 2025, he had 3. The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. Regression toward the mean suggests he’s a lock for 7-9 scores in 2026.
- The Dak Factor: Prescott is entering a critical year. When Dak is under center, Lamb averages significantly more fantasy points per game compared to any backup.
Breaking Down the Numbers
Let's talk about the 2025 splits because they tell the real story. Before the injury in Week 3, Lamb was on pace for another monster year. Then the goose egg happened. Then four weeks of zeros on your roster. That leaves a bad taste in managers' mouths.
But check out his Week 13 against Kansas City: 7 catches, 112 yards, and a touchdown. Or Week 14 against Detroit: 121 yards. The elite ceiling hasn't gone anywhere. He’s still the guy who can go for 30+ points and single-handedly win you a week.
| Metric | 2023 Stats | 2025 Stats |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 181 | 117 |
| Receptions | 135 | 75 |
| Rec Yards | 1,749 | 1,077 |
| Touchdowns | 12 | 3 |
| FPTS/G | 23.7 | 14.4 |
Don't let that 14.4 PPG scare you off. That includes games where he was playing through the tail end of a sprain. If you remove the "recovery" games, he was back to being a top-5 wideout.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Cowboys Offense
Brian Schottenheimer’s system gets a lot of flak for being "boring," but they ranked 3rd in pass plays per game last year. They want to throw. The defense was so bad (ranked 32nd in DVOA) that the Cowboys were constantly forced into shootouts.
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As a fantasy manager, you love a bad defense. It means more garbage time, more hurried passing, and more "prevent" defenses that Lamb can carve up over the middle.
Draft Strategy: Where Does He Fit?
Right now, Lamb is settling in as the WR4 or WR5 in most 2026 mocks. He’s behind Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown. Honestly? That's fair. But if he slips to the mid-to-late first round, you’re getting a guy with WR1 overall upside at a discount.
You've gotta be comfortable with the volatility of the Dallas front office, though. Jerry Jones is always a wild card, and the talk about re-signing Pickens and Javonte Williams means the money is getting tight. But Lamb's contract is locked. He is the centerpiece.
If you’re picking at 1.05 or 1.06, and the "Big Three" RBs are gone, Lamb is the safest click you can make. He doesn't have the "quarterback mystery" that Jefferson has sometimes dealt with, and he doesn't have the target competition that some of the guys in Philly or Miami have.
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Key Takeaways for Your Draft
- Ignore the TD total from last year. It’s an anomaly.
- Target Share is King. As long as Lamb is seeing 8-10 targets a game, he is an elite asset.
- Watch the Health. If he's fully cleared in training camp, the high-ankle sprain is a non-issue for his 2026 production.
- Stacking is Viable. A Dak-CeeDee stack is still one of the most cost-effective ways to capture a high-powered offense without spending two top-10 picks.
Actionable Insight: If you are in a keeper league and the Lamb owner is frustrated by his 2025 "slump," now is the time to send a trade offer. Focus on his lower touchdown rate and the emergence of Pickens to drive the price down. In redraft, don't let him past the mid-first round. The volume is too safe to ignore.