If you’ve ever spent a Saturday afternoon in Gun Barrel City or hauled a boat down to Seven Points, you know the vibe. It’s that perfect mix of East Texas pine trees and the wide-open blue of one of the biggest reservoirs in the state. But there is one thing that can absolutely ruin a weekend faster than a surprise thunderstorm: showing up only to realize the cedar creek lake water level has dropped so low that your favorite boat ramp is just a concrete slab leading into the mud.
It happens. Texas weather is basically a mood swing. Honestly, if you aren't checking the pool elevation before you hook up the trailer, you're rolling the dice with your propeller.
Right now, as we move through January 2026, the lake is sitting in a "fine" spot—around 318 feet above sea level. Is that full? No. Is it a disaster? Not even close. But for a lake where the "normal" mark is 322 feet, being four feet down changes the game for where you can fish and how fast you can safely zip across the water.
The Magic Number: 322 Feet
Basically, 322 feet is the "conservation pool." That is a fancy engineering term for "full." When the water hits 322.0, the Tarrant Regional Water District (TRWD) starts thinking about opening the spillway gates at the dam down near Malakoff.
If the water goes higher, it’s flood territory. If it’s lower, we start counting the inches.
Most people don't realize that Cedar Creek isn't just a place to catch crappie; it’s a massive bathtub for Fort Worth. The TRWD pumps millions of gallons out of here every single day to keep North Texas hydrated. Between that pumping and the brutal Texas sun—which can evaporate 200 million gallons on a hot July day—the level is almost always in flux.
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You’ve probably seen the "320 line" mentioned in real estate listings or local dock permits. That’s a critical boundary for property owners. Because the lake is managed for water supply, the level can drop significantly during a multi-year drought. Back in the day, we've seen it dip eight, nine, even ten feet below that 322 mark. When that happens, the shoreline recedes so far it looks like a different planet.
Why 318 Feet is Different Than You Think
Currently, being at 318.3 feet sounds okay on paper. It's about 82% full.
But here is the thing about Cedar Creek: it’s relatively shallow. While the deepest spot near the dam is maybe 53 to 60 feet, a lot of the northern end and the back of the coves are "skinny." When the cedar creek lake water level drops four feet, those three-foot-deep flats become six-inch-deep traps.
Stumps. Let's talk about the stumps.
If you aren't familiar with the "Caney Creek" arm or the areas up toward Kemp and Mabank, you need to be careful. This lake was created in 1965, and they didn't exactly clear-cut every tree before the water came in. At 322 feet, those old cedar stumps are safely tucked away. At 318 feet? They are lurking just inches below the surface, waiting to eat your lower unit.
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Dealing With the "La Niña" Problem
We are currently dealing with a La Niña climate pattern. For Texas, that usually means a warm, dry winter.
Last month—December 2025—was ridiculously dry. DFW Airport only saw 0.08 inches of rain. That's basically a light misting. Because of that, the lake level has been on a slow, steady slide. Without a big spring "flush" of rain, we might see the level continue to tick down as we head toward the summer of 2026.
According to the latest TRWD projections, the system storage is still healthy at 88% overall, but Cedar Creek specifically is feeling the lack of inflow from its main feeders:
- Caney Creek
- King’s Creek
- Clear Creek
When these tributaries go dry, the lake relies entirely on what’s already in the "tub."
Boating and Fishing in "Low" Water
If you’re an angler, a dropping water level isn't always bad news. It forces the fish out of the shallow grass and into more predictable spots.
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The largemouth bass tend to stack up on the docks in the southern third of the lake where the water stays clearer. Look for the docks that still have at least three or four feet of water under them. Jigs and Texas-rigged worms are the go-to here.
For the catfish hunters, the lower water levels actually make the old creek channels easier to find on your electronics. Running jug lines in those channels—using shad or sunfish—is still the best way to fill a cooler with blue cats.
Safety Tips for This Season
- Watch the Ramps: Public ramps like the ones in Tool or Gun Barrel City are usually fine at 318 feet, but private neighborhood ramps can get hairy. Check the end of the concrete before you back all the way in.
- Stay in the Channel: If you're north of the "Islands," stay between the buoys. This isn't the time to take shortcuts across the points.
- Check the Gauge: Don't guess. The USGS and TRWD have real-time sensors. If you see the elevation dropping toward 316 feet, that’s the "low threshold" where navigation becomes a real headache.
What’s Next for the Lake?
Nobody has a crystal ball, but the weather experts are looking at a transition toward "ENSO-neutral" conditions by late spring. That might open the door for those big May thunderstorms that can jump a lake level two feet in a single weekend.
In the meantime, don't let a slightly lower level keep you off the water. Just trim up, slow down, and keep an eye on your depth finder.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Bookmark the TRWD Lake Level Blog: They update this frequently with rainfall totals and pumping data. It's the "Bible" for local boaters.
- Verify Your Property Line: If you're a homeowner, use this lower-water period to inspect your dock pilings and bulkhead. It's much easier to fix a crumbling wall when the water isn't pushing against it.
- Update Your GPS Maps: Modern lake maps are great, but they don't always account for real-time level changes. Use a "depth offset" setting on your Garmin or Lowrance to match the current 318-foot elevation so your contours stay accurate.
The cedar creek lake water level is a moving target, but as long as you know where that 322-foot line is, you'll know exactly how much "padding" you have between your boat and the bottom. Keep an eye on the sky, watch the bridge pylons for the water stains, and enjoy the lake. It's still one of the best spots in Texas.