You've been there. A 2500 CP Tyranitar is staring you down. You throw a Golden Razz Berry, click into an Ultra Ball, and nail a perfect Excellent Curveball. The ball shakes once. Twice. Then—poof. The Tyranitar breaks out and, because the universe is cruel, it flees. You’re left staring at your screen, wondering if the game is rigged.
Honestly? It’s not rigged, but the math behind catch rate pokemon go is a lot more punishing than most players realize.
People tend to think of catching as a coin flip. It’s not. It’s a complex layering of multipliers that start with a base number you can't see and ends with a probability that rarely hits 100% for anything worth catching. If you want to stop wasting your Ultra Balls, you need to understand how these numbers actually stack.
The Invisible Foundation: Base Catch Rate (BCR)
Every single species in the game has a hardcoded number called the Base Catch Rate. This is the "soul" of the encounter. You can’t change it. You can't buff it.
For common trash like Pidgey or Caterpie, the BCR is usually around 50% or 40%. This is why you can catch them with a straight-throw Poké Ball while half-asleep. But for legendary Raid Bosses like Kyogre or Mewtwo, that BCR plummet to a measly 2%.
Think about that. 2%.
When you start with a 2% chance, even doubling it only gets you to 4%. This is why legendaries feel so impossible; you are fighting an uphill battle against a microscopic starting number. Interestingly, some rare spawns like Togekiss or Vanilluxe have notoriously low BCRs (around 5%), making them "red ring" nightmares even if their CP looks low.
Why the Ring Color Lies to You (Sometimes)
That colored circle—the one that goes from bright green to deep crimson—is your only visual clue to the catch rate pokemon go provides for that specific encounter. Green means "you've got this." Red means "get ready to cry."
But here’s the kicker: the ring color is relative to the ball you are currently holding.
If you switch from a Poké Ball to an Ultra Ball, you’ll notice the ring shifts slightly toward green. That’s because the Ultra Ball provides a 2.0x multiplier to your odds. However, the ring doesn't account for your "medal" bonuses or whether you’re about to throw a curveball. It only shows the "passive" difficulty.
The Level Penalty
A Pokémon's level—not its CP—is what actually dictates how hard it is to keep in the ball. As a Pokémon's level increases, a value called the CPM (CP Multiplier) decreases your catch chance.
This is why a level 35 Eevee with 900 CP is significantly harder to catch than a level 10 Vaporeon with the same CP. The Eevee is "higher level" for its species, making it more stubborn. If you’re a high-level trainer, you’re seeing higher-level wild spawns, which paradoxically makes the game feel harder as you get stronger.
Stacking the Multipliers: How to Actually Win
To beat the 2% odds, you have to stack multipliers. These aren't added together; they are multiplied. This is where the magic (and the math) happens.
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- The Ball: Poké Ball (1.0x), Great Ball (1.5x), Ultra Ball (2.0x).
- The Berry: Razz Berry (1.5x), Silver Pinap (1.8x), Golden Razz (2.5x).
- The Throw: This is the most misunderstood part. A Curveball isn't just for style; it’s a massive 1.7x multiplier.
- The Accuracy: Nice throws give a small boost, but an Excellent throw can give up to a 2.0x multiplier depending on how small the circle was.
If you throw a straight Poké Ball at a Legendary, you have a 2% chance.
If you throw a Golden Razz, Ultra Ball, Curveball, Excellent throw... that 2% can jump to roughly 15-16%.
Still sounds low? It is. But 16% is worlds better than 2%. Over ten throws, your cumulative probability of catching that Pokémon becomes very high.
The "Hidden" Medal Bonus
Don't ignore those type medals. If you have the Platinum medal for Fire types (meaning you've caught 2,500 Fire Pokémon), you get a permanent 1.4x multiplier to your catch rate pokemon go for every Fire type you encounter.
It’s a passive buff that most people forget exists. If you’re struggling with legendary birds, go out and grind the common types that match their typing. It actually matters.
The Myth of "Tapping the Screen" and Other Lies
We’ve all seen it. Someone tells you to hold the "B" button (wait, wrong game) or tap the screen rapidly while the ball shakes.
It does nothing.
The server decides if the Pokémon is caught the exact millisecond the ball touches the sprite. The "shakes" are just an animation to build tension while the app waits for the server response. Whether it shakes once or twice doesn't mean you were "close." You either hit the number or you didn't.
Also, the "nanab berry makes it easier to catch" theory is a half-truth. Nanabs stop the Pokémon from jumping, which helps you hit the target, but they provide a 0% bonus to the actual catch probability. If you can hit an Excellent throw without a Nanab, you are better off using a Razz.
Critical Catches: The 1% Miracle
Sometimes the ball whistles, sparks, and clicks shut after only one shake. That’s a Critical Catch.
In the main series games, your odds of a Critical Catch increased based on how many Pokémon you had registered in your Pokédex. In Pokémon GO, it’s mostly just a random, rare event (roughly a 1% chance). However, in recent 2025 and 2026 updates, Niantic has occasionally experimented with "guaranteed" critical catches for landing perfect throws during specific events.
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Strategy for 2026: The "Circle Lock" Technique
If you really want to master the catch rate pokemon go demands for high-tier play, you have to learn the Circle Lock.
- Hold the ball until the circle is at "Excellent" size.
- Let go (don't throw!).
- Wait for the Pokémon to attack/taunt.
- During the attack animation, start your curve.
- Release the ball just as the animation ends.
The circle stays the exact same size you left it. This is the only way to consistently land Excellent throws on aggressive Legendaries. If you aren't doing this, you're leaving a 2x multiplier on the table, and that’s why your Raid bosses are running away.
Actionable Tips for Your Next Session
Stop wasting Golden Razz Berries on everything. If the ring is yellow or light orange, a regular Razz or even a Silver Pinap is usually enough if you can curve it. Save the Goldens for the deep red rings and the 100% IV raids.
Check your medals. If you're missing Platinum for certain types, spend a Saturday afternoon specifically hunting those. That 1.4x multiplier is the difference between a frustrating afternoon and a successful hunt.
Finally, practice your curveballs. A curved "Nice" throw is better than a straight "Great" throw. Every single time. The math doesn't lie, even when the RNG feels like it's out to get you.
Get those medals to Platinum.
Learn the Circle Lock.
Always curve.