You’ve probably seen a Casey’s on a lonely stretch of highway in the Midwest. Maybe you’ve even stopped for their famous breakfast pizza. But if you’re looking at Casey's General Store stock (NASDAQ: CASY) as just another gas station play, you’re missing the bigger picture. This isn't just a place to fuel up; it’s a retail powerhouse that essentially functions as a restaurant and grocery hub for thousands of rural communities.
Lately, the numbers have been kind of wild. As of mid-January 2026, the stock has been pushing all-time highs, recently touching around $640 per share. That’s a massive jump from where it sat just a year ago. Honestly, the market seems to finally be pricing in the fact that Casey’s is the third-largest convenience store chain in the U.S. and, surprisingly, the fifth-largest pizza chain.
Why Everyone is Watching the Numbers Right Now
Wall Street is currently obsessed with the company’s recent performance. In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Casey’s basically smashed expectations. They reported a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.53. Compare that to the $4.92 consensus estimate analysts were sweating over, and you see why the stock is on a tear.
Revenue hit $4.51 billion for that quarter alone. That’s a 14.2% increase year-over-year. But here is the kicker: it’s not just the gas pumps driving this. The "inside sales"—the stuff you buy when you walk through the door—grew by 13% to $1.66 billion. People aren't just stopping for a splash of unleaded; they are coming for the hot sandwiches, the bakery items, and those whole pizzas.
The Pizza Factor and Profit Margins
If you want to understand Casey's General Store stock, you have to understand the margin. Fuel margins are notoriously fickle. One week they are great, the next they are squeezed by global oil politics. Casey’s reported a solid fuel margin of about 41.6 cents per gallon recently, but the real gold is in the kitchen.
The Prepared Food and Dispensed Beverage segment—basically the pizza and coffee—boasts a margin of roughly 58.6%. That is a massive spread compared to the 12% or 13% you might see on fuel. By turning a gas station into a neighborhood pizzeria, they’ve insulated themselves from the volatility of the energy market.
The Aggressive 2026 Expansion Plan
Growth isn’t slowing down. If anything, it’s accelerating. CEO Darren Rebelez has been pretty vocal about the company’s "two-pronged" approach: building new stores from the ground up and buying out smaller competitors.
They are currently on track to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026. This is part of a much larger three-year strategic plan to add 500 locations to their network. They’ve already integrated the massive Fikes Wholesale acquisition—which brought in nearly 200 CEFCO-branded stores—and they are currently moving heavy into Texas.
- Fiscal 2025 Growth: Added 270 stores (a company record).
- Current Footprint: Over 2,900 stores across 19-20 states.
- Capital Investment: Roughly $600 million set aside for property and equipment in 2026.
Is the Stock Overvalued or Just Getting Started?
There’s always a debate about price. Right now, CASY is trading at a premium compared to its peers. We’re talking about a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio hovering around 34x or 39x depending on which trailing window you look at. The industry average for retail and convenience is often closer to 25x or 26x.
Some bears argue that the concentration in rural markets makes them vulnerable. If agricultural commodity prices drop or farmers have a bad year, the local Casey's feels it. Plus, operating expenses rose 16.7% recently, mostly because they are running hundreds of more stores than they were a year ago.
But most analysts—about 55% of those covering the stock—still have a "Buy" or "Strong Buy" rating. They see a company that has reduced same-store labor hours for 12 consecutive quarters while increasing output. That sort of operational efficiency is hard to ignore.
Dividends and Shareholder Value
Casey’s isn't just a growth play; it’s a dividend grower too. They’ve increased their dividend for 26 consecutive years. The current quarterly dividend sits at $0.57 per share. While the yield is relatively low (around 0.36% to 0.40% because the stock price is so high), the payout ratio is only about 13%. This means they have a ton of room to keep raising that check every year.
What to Watch Next
If you’re tracking Casey's General Store stock, keep your eyes on the next earnings report. The company has revised its fiscal 2026 EBITDA growth forecast upward to a range of 15% to 17%. If they hit those numbers, the current "expensive" valuation might actually look like a bargain in hindsight.
📖 Related: One US Dollar in Sri Lankan Rupees: What’s Actually Happening with Your Money
You should also watch the Texas expansion. It’s a different market than the Iowa or Illinois heartland they are used to. If their pizza-centric model works in the South as well as it does in the Midwest, the ceiling for this company is much higher than people realize.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Monitor the "Inside Margin": If that 58% margin on prepared foods starts to slip, the stock could take a hit regardless of fuel prices.
- Track M&A Activity: Casey's has a $1.3 billion liquidity cushion. They are likely looking for another mid-sized acquisition to stay on pace for their 500-store goal.
- Check the 52-Week High: The stock recently hit $641.12. Buying at the peak is always risky, so look for pullbacks toward the $580-$600 range if you're looking for an entry point.
- Dividend Dates: The next ex-dividend date is January 30, 2026, with a payment following on February 13.