Honestly, if you'd told someone twenty years ago that a gas station chain from Iowa would become one of the most consistent performers on the NASDAQ, they’d probably have laughed. Yet here we are in early 2026, and the Casey's General Store stock price is hovering around $616, hitting fresh all-time highs and leaving a lot of traditional retailers in the dust. It’s a weirdly successful hybrid business.
Is it a restaurant? A grocery store? A fuel station?
Actually, it’s all three. And that's exactly why Wall Street is obsessed with it.
The stock (CASY) has been on an absolute tear lately. Just look at the numbers. Over the last twelve months, we've seen a return of roughly 54%. That isn't just "good" for a consumer staple—it's phenomenal. While other retailers are sweating over cooling consumer spending, Casey’s just keeps slingin’ pizzas and pumping gas like nothing's wrong.
The "Pizza Moat" and the $600 Milestone
You can't talk about the Casey's General Store stock price without talking about the kitchen. Most people see a gas station; investors see the fifth-largest pizza chain in the United States.
The "inside sales"—the stuff you buy inside the store—carry much higher profit margins than the fuel outside. In their most recent Q2 2026 earnings report, they posted a massive beat. We're talking earnings per share (EPS) of $5.53, way ahead of the $4.92 analysts were expecting.
Why the stock jumped 7% in a week
- The Barn Burner Effect: They just launched a "Barn Burner" chicken pizza that’s driving huge traffic.
- Margin Expansion: Their inside margin hit 42.4%. That’s a lot of profit for every bag of chips and slice of pepperoni.
- Acquisition Integration: They’ve been busy absorbing the CEFCO chain (nearly 200 stores), and it’s actually working.
The Fuel Factor: It’s Not What You Think
People assume Casey’s is at the mercy of oil prices. Sorta, but not really.
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In fact, low retail fuel prices can actually be good for them because it leaves more money in the customer’s pocket to spend on high-margin items like breakfast breakfast sandwiches or a 32oz fountain soda.
Jefferies recently bumped their price target to a cool $700. Why? Because Casey's fuel margins are holding steady at about 41.6 cents per gallon. Even as electric vehicles get more popular, the "Midwest Moat" protects Casey’s. They operate in small towns where they are often the only game in town. If you need milk, a tire gauge, and a hot dinner at 8:00 PM in rural Nebraska, you’re going to Casey’s.
Breaking down the Q2 FY26 numbers
The revenue for the quarter ending October 2025 hit $4.51 billion. That's a 14.2% jump year-over-year. Even with operating expenses rising—mostly because they’re opening so many new stores—their EBITDA (basically their "cash-flow" profit) surged 17.5% to $410 million.
Strategy: 500 Stores in 3 Years
The company is currently in the middle of a massive expansion plan. They want to add 500 stores by the end of fiscal 2026.
They aren't just building from scratch, either. They’re "opportunistic." That’s corporate-speak for "we buy the local mom-and-pop gas station that’s struggling and turn it into a Casey’s."
They’ve got a land bank ready for new builds, but they also just finished the CEFCO acquisition, which gave them a huge foothold in Texas and the South. Texas is a goldmine for them because the population is booming and there's plenty of space.
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What Most People Get Wrong About CASY
A lot of bears look at the P/E ratio, which is currently sitting around 37. They say, "Hey, that’s way too expensive for a gas station!"
But Casey’s isn't valued like a gas station. It’s valued like a high-growth tech-retail hybrid. Between their digital loyalty program (which has millions of active members) and their delivery partnerships, they are behaving more like Domino’s than ExxonMobil.
Honestly, the risk isn't the price of oil—it's labor. Operating thousands of kitchens is hard. They saw a 16.7% rise in operating expenses last year. If wages keep climbing, those 58% margins on prepared food might start to sweat.
Analyst Sentiment: Is $700 Realistic?
If you look at the big firms, they’re mostly bullish, though there are some "Holds" in the mix.
- Jefferies: $700 target (Buy)
- BofA Securities: $700 target (Buy)
- Wolfe Research: $638 target (Outperform)
- Goldman Sachs: $490 target (Neutral/Hold)
The gap between $490 and $700 shows you the two different ways to look at this stock. If you think they can keep growing their store count and keeping pizza margins high, $700 is totally on the table. If you think the "post-acquisition" honeymoon is over, you might be more cautious.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re watching the Casey's General Store stock price for an entry point, here’s the reality of the situation in early 2026.
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Watch the "Inside Sales" growth. This is the heartbeat of the company. If same-store inside sales stay above 3%, the growth story remains intact. If that dips, the high valuation becomes a lot harder to justify.
Keep an eye on the debt-to-EBITDA ratio. Right now, it’s a healthy 1.9x. They have $1.2 billion in liquidity. This means they have the "dry powder" to buy more chains. If they announce another big acquisition in the Southeast, expect the stock to react.
Don't ignore the dividend. It’s small—about 0.4% yield—but they’ve been raising it for over 20 years. It’s a "Dividend Contender" for a reason.
Monitor the Texas rollout. The company is currently building seven new stores in Texas as a test. If those perform well, it proves their Midwest "small-town" magic can work in the big South, which opens up a massive new frontier for the stock.
The bottom line? Casey's has turned "convenience" into a science. As long as people need a quick lunch and a tank of gas, the business model looks incredibly resilient. For now, the momentum is clearly with the bulls.
Next Steps for Your Portfolio:
- Compare CASY's P/E ratio to peers like Murphy USA (MUSA) or Alimentation Couche-Tard (ANCUF) to see if the premium is justified.
- Review the Q3 2026 earnings release (expected in March) to see if fuel margins stayed above the 40-cent mark.
- Set a price alert for the 200-day moving average if you're looking for a "dip" to buy, as the stock is currently in overbought territory.