Honestly, if you've lived in Carroll County for more than a week, you know the drill. One day you’re looking for your heavy parka because the wind is whipping off the hills at 10 mph, and the next, you’re wondering if the 10% chance of snow is actually going to stick or just tease the grass.
It’s tricky.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re sitting in that weird gray zone. The temperature is hovering at 31°F, but it feels a lot more like 23°F thanks to that northwest wind. It's cloudy. It's a bit bleak. Basically, it’s standard winter in the county.
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Why the Carroll County forecast is such a wildcard
People think Maryland weather is predictable. It's not. Especially here.
Today, Sunday, January 18, we’re looking at a high of 34°F and a low that’s going to bottom out at a bone-chilling 16°F. The big story today is the precipitation. There is a 90% chance of snow during the day. If you haven't checked the salt in your shed yet, you're probably already behind the curve.
But then, look at tomorrow.
Monday is supposed to be sunny with a high of 34°F, but the wind is going to kick up to 18 mph. It's that biting southwest wind that makes your face hurt the second you step out of the car. And the low? 12°F.
The upcoming week at a glance
If you're planning your commute or just trying to figure out when to walk the dog, here is the raw data for the next few days:
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- Tuesday, Jan 20: Bright sun, but don't let it fool you. High of 23°F and a low of 10°F. It’s going to be the coldest day of the stretch.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Partly sunny, climbing back up to 35°F. A bit of a breather, honestly.
- Thursday, Jan 22: The "warm" day. We might actually hit 39°F.
- Friday, Jan 23: Mostly cloudy and back down to 31°F.
The real shift happens next weekend. By Sunday, January 25, the temps drop back to a high of 19°F, and we’re looking at a 45% chance of snow overnight. Monday, January 26, keeps the trend going with a 75% chance of snow and a high of only 23°F.
What the data actually tells us
You’ve probably noticed that we aren't seeing any massive "spring thaws" in this forecast. Everything is staying well below 40 degrees for the foreseeable future.
In Carroll County, the cold season usually grinds on from late November through early March. January is historically the roughest month. We average high temperatures around 40°F, but as we’re seeing this week, we often struggle to even hit the mid-30s.
According to historical climate data from the Carroll County Regional Airport, our average snowfall for the season is about 20.6 inches. Some years we get a dusting; other years, like the legendary 2009-2010 winter, the state gets hammered with record-breaking totals.
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Micro-climates and hilly terrain
One thing local experts and long-time residents always talk about is the elevation.
Carroll County sits between 850 and 1,500 feet above sea level. That's high enough that we often see snow while our neighbors in Baltimore are just getting a cold rain. It's frustrating for commuters but great for kids hoping for a school closing.
The humidity right now is sitting at 71%, which is why the air feels so "heavy" even when it’s freezing. It’s that damp cold that gets into your bones.
Survival steps for this week
Don't just look at the thermometer.
Check the "feels like" temp. On Tuesday, when it's 23°F, the wind chill is likely going to make it feel like single digits.
- Drip the pipes: With lows hitting 10°F and 12°F early this week, frozen pipes are a very real risk in older farmhouses.
- Check your tires: Cold air makes tire pressure drop. If your light isn't on yet, it probably will be by Tuesday morning.
- Pet safety: If it's too cold for you to stand outside in a light jacket for ten minutes, it's too cold for your dog to be out there without a break.
Stay warm out there. This January stretch is a long one, but the sun on Monday and Tuesday should at least make the frost look pretty on the fields.
Next steps: Make sure your emergency kit in your car has a real blanket and a shovel, especially with that 75% snow chance looming for next Monday. Check your heating fuel levels now before the sub-20 degree nights hit.