So, you’re looking at the forecast for the "Waterfront Wonderland." Honestly, if you just check the app on your phone and see a little sun icon, you’re only getting about half the story. Cape Coral weather is a peculiar beast. It’s a city built on 400 miles of canals, which means the humidity and the breeze don't just "happen"—they basically run the show.
Today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, we’re sitting in a pretty sweet spot. It’s 78°F and mostly sunny right now. A light 6 mph wind is drifting in from the south. It feels like quintessential Florida winter, but don’t let the afternoon warmth trick you into leaving your windows open tonight.
The Weird Reality of Cape Coral’s Temperature Swings
People think Florida is just "hot" or "less hot." That's a myth. Cape Coral is currently experiencing a massive spread between day and night. While we're hitting 78°F this afternoon, the mercury is going to plummet to 51°F tonight.
That is a 27-degree drop.
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If you’re out at Tarpon Point for dinner, you’ll start in a t-shirt and end in a hoodie. It’s just the way it is here in January. Tomorrow, Sunday, January 18, things get even funkier. We’re looking at a high of 75°F, but a cold front is moving in. By Sunday night, it’s going to hit a bone-chilling (for us) 39°F.
Breaking Down the Next Few Days
If you have plans to be on the water, pay attention. The wind is shifting. Today it’s a gentle southeast breeze at 7 mph. Tomorrow? It kicks up to 17 mph from the west. That’s going to make the Caloosahatchee a bit choppy, so maybe rethink that pontoon rental for Sunday morning.
Here is what the immediate horizon looks like:
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- Monday, Jan 19: A crisp, sunny day. High of 63°F, low of 38°F. North winds at 9 mph.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Starting to warm back up. High of 71°F with partly sunny skies.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Back to "normal" Florida. High of 79°F and a low of 52°F.
You’ve probably noticed that Monday and Tuesday are essentially "winter" by Cape Coral standards. The UV index is holding steady at a 4, which is moderate. You won't feel like you're melting, but the Florida sun is deceptive; it'll still crisp your nose if you're out gardening for three hours.
Humidity and the "RealFeel" Factor
Right now, the humidity is at 39%. That is incredibly low for Southwest Florida. It’s that dry, "champagne" air that makes the winter here so famous. But wait until Thursday, January 22. The forecast shows a 85% chance of rain with humidity spiking to 78%.
When the humidity jumps like that, a 75-degree day feels heavy. It feels like you’re breathing through a damp towel. That Thursday rain isn’t just a drizzle, either. We’re expecting actual rain, not just the usual five-minute afternoon shower we get in July.
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Seasonality and the Long Game
Most visitors forget that Cape Coral has two distinct seasons: the "Dry Season" (now) and the "Rainy Season" (June through September). We are currently in the heart of the dry season. We can go weeks without a drop of rain.
The hurricane season, which everyone panics about, is officially over (it runs June 1 to November 30). So, for now, the biggest "threat" you’re facing is a cold snap that might turn your hibiscus brown.
Why This Forecast Matters for Your Week
If you’re a local, you know the drill. If you’re visiting, listen up. The wind direction is your best friend or your worst enemy. A north wind in January (like we'll see Monday) means clear skies but cool air. A south wind (like today) brings the warmth.
The weather forecast for Cape Coral is currently predicting a classic "yo-yo" week. Warm, then cold, then wet, then back to paradise. It’s why we live here, honestly. The variety keeps it interesting.
Actionable Next Steps for the Week Ahead
- Sunday Boaters: Watch that 17 mph west wind. If you're heading toward Sanibel, the return trip against the wind will be rough.
- Plant Parents: Monday night is the danger zone. With a low of 38°F, you might want to cover your sensitive tropicals or bring the potted palms inside.
- Thursday Planning: Total wash-out likely. Save your indoor errands—like hitting the shops at Coralwood or catching a movie—for Thursday.
- Wardrobe Check: Layering is the only way to survive a 78-to-51 degree swing. Keep a light jacket in the car; you’ll need it by 7:00 PM tonight.
The weather is looking mostly fantastic for the weekend, provided you can handle a little chill on Monday morning. Enjoy the 78-degree sun while it’s here today. It's exactly why everyone wants to be in Cape Coral this time of year.