Honestly, if you had told anyone in early 2025 that the Liberal Party would still be holding the keys to 24 Sussex Drive by the summer, they would have laughed you out of the room. The vibes were grim. People were done.
But politics in this country has a funny way of flipping the script when you least expect it. The Canada prime minister election 2025 wasn't just another trip to the ballot box; it was a total fever dream that reshaped how we think about our leaders. We saw a sitting Prime Minister step down, a central banker take the wheel without ever having been elected to Parliament, and a "guaranteed" Conservative landslide evaporate in the face of a trade war.
👉 See also: Philippines Air Crash Today: Why Aviation Safety in the Archipelago is Under the Microscope
It was messy. It was fast. And frankly, it was weird.
The Carney Shift: From The Bank to the Ballot
By January 2025, Justin Trudeau’s polling numbers were in the basement. Like, the sub-basement. The "time for change" sentiment was sitting at a staggering 88%. Everyone knew it was over. When Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, it felt like the end of an era, but the real shocker was who stepped into the vacuum.
Enter Mark Carney.
You know the name—former Governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England. The guy is basically the personification of a spreadsheet. On March 14, 2025, he was sworn in as Prime Minister after winning the Liberal leadership race, despite not actually holding a seat in the House of Commons. Talk about an unconventional start.
Carney didn't wait around. On March 23, just nine days after being sworn in, he went to Governor General Mary Simon and pulled the trigger on a snap election for April 28, 2025. It was a massive gamble. The Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre had been measuring the drapes for months, leading by 20+ points. But then, the world outside Canada’s borders decided to intervene.
The Trump Factor and the Sovereignty Surge
You can't talk about the 2025 election without talking about what was happening south of the border. With Donald Trump back in the White House and slapping 25% tariffs on Canadian exports, the mood in the country shifted from "we hate our government" to "we're terrified for our jobs."
Trump started talking about Canada like it was a failing business he might want to acquire. He literally suggested making Canada the "51st state." Most of us rolled our eyes, but the economic threat was real.
Carney, with his background in international finance, suddenly looked a lot more useful to a panicked public than he did three months prior. He leaned into his "serious man for serious times" persona. He famously told the press that Canada "won't be for sale, ever." It worked. The "anti-Trudeau" vibe that Poilievre had been riding lost its punch because the Liberal leader wasn't Trudeau anymore.
✨ Don't miss: Eating the Cats: What Really Happened Behind the Viral Claim
What Actually Happened on April 28?
The results were a gut punch to the smaller parties. We ended up with a House of Commons that looks like a two-party tug-of-war, the likes of which we haven't seen since the 50s.
- Liberals (Mark Carney): 169 seats (Minority Government). They won the popular vote with 43.7%, their best showing in decades.
- Conservatives (Pierre Poilievre): 144 seats. Despite gaining seats, Poilievre actually lost his own riding in Carleton. Losing your own seat as the leader is... well, it's rough.
- The NDP Collapse: This was the "red wedding" of Canadian politics. Jagmeet Singh's party got absolutely hammered, dropping to just 7 seats and losing official party status. Singh also lost his seat in Burnaby Central.
- Bloc Québécois: Stayed relevant but lost ground, ending up with 22 seats.
The election used the new 343-seat map, which meant the magic number for a majority was 172. Carney fell just short. It’s a minority government, but with the NDP effectively sidelined, the Liberals are currently leaning on the Bloc or case-by-case deals to pass legislation.
The "Big Three" Issues That Decided Everything
If you ask anyone why they voted the way they did, they probably won't say "monetary policy." They'll say they can't afford a house.
1. The GST Housing Hack
Both major parties eventually landed on the same page here: killing the GST on new homes. Carney pledged to scrap it for first-time buyers on homes under $1 million. Poilievre went even further, pushing for a cut on all new homes under $1.3 million. It was a race to the bottom on taxes to try and jumpstart supply.
2. The Trade War
When those 25% tariffs hit, the "cost of living" crisis got a new, scarier face. People weren't just worried about the price of eggs; they were worried about the sawmill in their town closing down. Carney’s pitch was basically: "I know these guys, I know how the plumbing of the global economy works, trust me to fix it."
3. The Death of the "Supply and Confidence" Deal
Remember when the NDP and Liberals were best friends? That ended in September 2024 when Jagmeet Singh "ripped up" the agreement. He tried to distance himself from the Liberals to avoid being sunk by their unpopularity. Ironically, by distancing himself, he lost the ability to take credit for things like dental care, and voters who wanted to stop Poilievre just flocked to the Liberals instead.
Why This Election Still Feels Unfinished
We’re sitting in 2026 now, and the dust still hasn't settled. Carney is governed by a "One Canadian Economy" strategy (Bill C-5), trying to fight off American economic aggression while keeping a roof over people's heads.
There's a lot of talk about how the NDP is going to rebuild. They’ve lost their status, their funding, and their leader. On the other side, the Conservatives are in a bit of a soul-searching phase after the 2025 "near miss."
✨ Don't miss: The Spider Lake Murder: What Really Happened to Chris and Nancy Brewster
What you should keep an eye on next:
- Watch the By-elections: Since Poilievre and Singh lost their seats, their parties are in leadership limbo. Keep an eye on who steps up to fill the void.
- Monitor the Tariffs: The trade war with the U.S. is the single biggest factor affecting your wallet right now. Any "thaw" in relations will likely boost Carney’s approval.
- Check the GST Changes: If you’re a first-time homebuyer, the rules changed significantly after the 2025 vote. Look into the "Build Canada Homes" entity—it’s the new federal developer tasked with building on public lands.
The 2025 election proved that in Canada, "guaranteed" results don't exist. It was a reminder that when the world gets chaotic, Canadian voters tend to grab the person they think can handle the math, even if they aren't particularly in love with the party.
Get your finances in order for the 50-year mortgage discussions coming out of the U.S., and stay tuned to the trade negotiations. The next few months of this minority government will determine if the "Carney Surge" was a fluke or a total realignment of the Canadian North.