So, here we are again. It’s 2026, and the headlines look like they were ripped straight out of a 2019 fever dream. Donald Trump is back in the White House, and his obsession with the world’s largest island hasn’t faded one bit. If anything, it’s gotten way more intense.
You’ve probably seen the memes, but the question "can Trump get Greenland" is now a very real, very tense diplomatic standoff. It's not just about real estate anymore. It’s about rare earth minerals, melting ice caps, and a massive geopolitical chess game with Russia and China.
Honestly, the whole thing feels a bit surreal. On one side, you have a President who sees a 836,000-square-mile island as the ultimate "fixer-upper" for American national security. On the other, you have the people of Greenland and the Danish government basically saying, "For the last time, we are not a commodity."
The 2026 Context: Why This Is Happening Now
Trump didn’t just wake up and decide to tweet about this again. Since his inauguration in January 2025, his administration has been laser-focused on "American expansionism." By mid-January 2026, things reached a boiling point. We’re talking about actual threats of military force and coercive negotiations.
Why? Because the Arctic is changing.
As the ice melts, new shipping lanes are opening up. More importantly, Greenland is sitting on a goldmine of minerals that the U.S. desperately needs for everything from electric car batteries to fighter jets. Currently, China has a near-monopoly on these "rare earth" elements. In Trump’s view, owning Greenland isn't just a whim; it's a strategic necessity to box out adversaries.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reportedly been tasked with drafting a formal purchase proposal. The price tag being floated? Anywhere from $500 billion to $700 billion. That is a lot of money, even for the U.S. government.
The "One Way or the Other" Threat
This is where it gets spicy—and a little scary. Trump told reporters just a few days ago, on January 9, that the U.S. would get Greenland "one way or the other." He’s refused to rule out using the military to make it happen.
👉 See also: What Category Was Harvey? The Surprising Truth Behind the Number
Predictably, this went over like a lead balloon in Europe.
Denmark is a NATO ally. You can’t just "annex" a piece of your ally’s territory without breaking the entire international order. The EU’s defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, recently warned that any military move on Greenland would be the "de-facto end of NATO."
European countries aren't just talking, either. Norway, Sweden, France, and Germany have actually sent troops to the region for drills. It’s a "show of strength" meant to remind Washington that Greenland isn't just a deserted rock; it’s part of a sovereign kingdom protected by mutual defense treaties.
Can He Actually Buy It?
Technically, the U.S. has a history of buying land. We bought Louisiana from France. We bought Alaska from Russia. We even bought the Virgin Islands from Denmark back in 1917.
But 2026 isn't 1917.
Greenland has a self-governing act. They have their own Prime Minister, Múte Bourup Egede (who has been very vocal about not being for sale). Under international law, the people of Greenland have the right to self-determination. They aren't a "colony" anymore; they are an autonomous people within the Kingdom of Denmark.
For Trump to "get" Greenland through a sale, several nearly impossible things would have to happen:
✨ Don't miss: When Does Joe Biden's Term End: What Actually Happened
- Greenlandic Consent: A recent 2025 poll showed that 85% of Greenlanders reject the idea of becoming part of the U.S. They want independence, sure, but they don't want to swap a Danish "master" for an American one.
- Danish Approval: The Danish Parliament would have to agree to sell a huge chunk of their kingdom. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has called the idea "absurd" more times than she can count.
- U.S. Congressional Funding: Even if Denmark said yes, Trump would need Congress to cut a check for hundreds of billions of dollars. With the U.S. facing its own cost-of-living crisis, getting that kind of cash approved is a tall order.
The "Compact of Free Association" Loophole
If a flat-out purchase is a non-starter, what’s the alternative? This is the nuance most people miss.
There’s a model the U.S. uses with places like the Marshall Islands and Palau called a Compact of Free Association (COFA). Basically, these places are independent nations, but the U.S. provides financial aid and handles their defense in exchange for exclusive military access.
Some folks in the White House think this is the "middle ground." If Greenland ever goes fully independent from Denmark—which they’ve been talking about for years—the U.S. could swoop in with a massive aid package. It wouldn't be "ownership," but it would be "control."
However, even this has a catch. Greenland currently gets a massive annual "block grant" from Denmark (worth about €10,000 per person). The U.S. would have to match or beat that, and right now, the American public isn't exactly clamoring to subsidize the Arctic.
What’s Happening on the Ground?
Life in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, has become pretty stressful lately. Local officials say people are losing sleep. There’s a real fear that the island is being used as a pawn in a game between giants.
Meanwhile, the U.S. already has a footprint there. Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) is a massive Cold War-era facility in the north of the island. It’s part of our early-warning system for nuclear missiles. Under current treaties, the U.S. can already put as many troops there as it wants.
Trump’s argument is that a "lease" isn't enough. He wants the deed. He wants to be able to build mines, install permanent infrastructure, and secure the area without having to ask Copenhagen for permission every time he wants to move a bulldozer.
🔗 Read more: Fire in Idyllwild California: What Most People Get Wrong
The Realistic Outlook for 2026
So, can Trump get Greenland?
If you mean "can he annex it next week," the answer is almost certainly no. The legal, political, and military barriers are massive. If he tried to take it by force, he’d be starting a war with NATO—the very alliance the U.S. leads. It’s a geopolitical paradox.
But if you mean "can he increase U.S. influence there," the answer is probably yes. We’re likely to see:
- More Military Presence: Expect more troops and "scientific" outposts under existing agreements.
- Economic Pressure: Trump has already threatened tariffs on Denmark if they don't "play ball" on Arctic security.
- Direct Outreach: The U.S. is trying to bypass Copenhagen and talk directly to Greenlandic leaders, offering business deals and investment in their mining sector.
The strategy seems to be: make the relationship with Denmark so uncomfortable that they eventually decide the island isn't worth the headache, while simultaneously making the U.S. look like a very wealthy (if aggressive) suitor to the Greenlandic people.
Actionable Insights for Following the Greenland Situation
If you’re watching this story unfold, keep your eyes on these specific markers over the next few months:
- The 2026 Midterms: If Republicans lose control of the Senate or House, the funding for any "Greenland deal" dies instantly. Trump’s leverage depends heavily on a friendly Congress.
- Greenland’s Independence Report: A major report on the path to independence is expected from the Greenlandic government by the end of 2026. If it suggests they can't survive economically without Denmark (or someone else), the U.S. will ramp up the "aid" offers.
- Rare Earth Mining Contracts: Watch for which companies get licenses to mine in southern Greenland. If American firms like KoBold Metals start getting exclusive rights, it's a sign that the "soft power" approach is working.
- NATO Summit Moves: Any changes to the NATO charter or specific language regarding "Arctic security" will tell you if the allies are caving to Trump’s demands or digging in their heels.
This isn't just a "real estate deal" or a distraction. It's a fundamental shift in how the U.S. views its borders and its role in a warming world. Whether he "gets" the island or not, the map of the Arctic is being redrawn right now.