Ever since the news broke in early 2025 about the "pause" on foreign aid, everyone’s been asking the same thing: can the president shut down USAID for good? It sounds like a simple yes-or-no question. But honestly, it’s a legal mess that’s keeping lawyers and constitutional experts up at night.
The Reality of Presidential Power and USAID
You might have seen the headlines about the agency’s website going dark or the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) calling it a "criminal organization." It's pretty dramatic. But here is the thing you've got to understand: USAID wasn't just built on a whim. It’s backed by decades of law, specifically the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961.
The President has a ton of power over foreign policy. That’s a fact. He can fire the person in charge. He can tell them to stop writing new checks for a few months while he "reviews" things. But he can't just delete the agency from the org chart like he's closing a browser tab.
Congress holds the keys.
Why the Law Matters
In 1998, a law called the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act basically set the rules for how USAID exists. It said the agency is "independent" but reports to the Secretary of State. More importantly, it established USAID in statute.
To actually "shut down" or abolish an agency created by statute, you need a new statute. That means a bill has to pass the House and the Senate and get signed. Executive orders are powerful, but they generally can't override a direct law passed by Congress. Think of it like a landlord trying to tear down a building the city has designated as a historic landmark—he might own the land, but he's got to follow the city's rules first.
Can the President Shut Down USAID Through the Backdoor?
So, if the law says he can’t just delete it, why does it feel like it’s happening anyway? This is where it gets kind of technical. While the President might not be able to abolish the agency, he can certainly make it very hard for it to do anything.
- The Funding Freeze: By using something called "apportionment authority" through the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the administration can pause spending.
- Personnel Moves: We saw this in early 2025. Senior career officials were put on administrative leave. Thousands of contractors got "stop-work" orders.
- The Reorganization Play: Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in mid-2025 that USAID would stop implementing aid and that the State Department would take over those functions.
Basically, the administration is trying to hollow it out. If there are no people and no money, the agency is just a name on a piece of paper. Some critics, like Senators Chuck Schumer and Chris Murphy, argued this was a total end-run around the law. They claimed that "de facto" termination is the same as "de jure" (legal) termination and violates the Impoundment Control Act.
The DOGE Factor
Elon Musk and the DOGE team didn't hold back. They claimed the agency was "beyond repair." By framing the shutdown as a move against "waste, fraud, and abuse," the administration tried to shift the conversation from legal authority to fiscal responsibility.
But even with that framing, the Rescissions Act of 2025 only cut about $8 billion. That’s a huge chunk—roughly 83% of some programs—but it wasn't the 100% total shutdown some people expected. Why? Because even a friendly Congress knows that completely zeroing out an agency without a plan for the legal fallout is a nightmare.
What Really Happens if They Try to Close It?
If a president tries to move every single USAID employee over to the State Department without a vote from Congress, the courts get involved.
We already saw this start to happen. Lawsuits were filed almost immediately after the "pause" in January 2025. The main argument is that the President is "impounding" funds—which means he's refusing to spend money that Congress specifically told him to spend.
"The Administration's failure to expend funds appropriated on a bipartisan basis by Congress would violate the Impoundment Control Act." — Joint statement from several U.S. Senators.
It’s a tug-of-war. The President says, "I'm the Commander in Chief and I run foreign policy." Congress says, "We hold the power of the purse." Usually, these things end in a compromise, but 2025 and 2026 have been anything but usual.
The "America First Opportunity Fund"
Instead of just "shutting down," the plan for 2026 seems to be replacement. The administration's budget proposal for fiscal year 2026 suggests eliminating traditional development accounts and replacing them with a new America First Opportunity Fund (A1OF).
This is a classic "rebranding" move. It allows the administration to say they've ended the "old, wasteful" USAID while still keeping the money they need to influence other countries. It’s less of a shutdown and more of a hostile takeover.
Why This Matters for You
You might think, "Who cares if some agency in D.C. disappears?" But USAID handles everything from childhood vaccines to emergency food after earthquakes.
When the administration issued the stop-work orders in early 2025, it didn't just stop "woke" programs (as some politicians called them). It stopped logistics for malaria nets and nutrition programs for babies. The "reorganization" meant that 5,800 people were suddenly out of work or in limbo.
The Current Status of USAID (As of early 2026):
- Legally: It still exists because Congress hasn't passed a law to "abolish" it.
- Functionally: It is a ghost of its former self. Most of its work has been moved to the State Department's "Global Health Security and Diplomacy" (GHSD) bureau or simply cancelled.
- The Future: The 2026 budget request asks for a 62% cut in global health and an 85% cut to international affairs generally.
Actionable Insights: What to Watch For
If you're trying to keep track of whether the President will successfully shut down USAID, stop looking at the tweets and start looking at these three things:
- Court Rulings on Impoundment: Watch for a case that reaches the Supreme Court about whether a President can refuse to spend "Development Assistance" funds. If the court sides with the President, the agency is effectively dead.
- The FY 2026 Appropriations Bill: Congress has to pass a budget. If they include the "America First Opportunity Fund" and remove the line item for "USAID Operating Expenses," the agency is gone in all but name.
- Bilateral Agreements: The administration is trying to sign new deals with countries by March 31, 2026. These deals require countries to "co-invest." If countries refuse, the aid stops, and USAID has even less to do.
The President can't just snap his fingers and make USAID disappear. But he can turn off the lights, lock the doors, and wait for the building to crumble. Whether that's a "shutdown" or just "aggressive reform" depends entirely on who you ask—and which lawyer is winning the argument this week.
Keep an eye on the House Foreign Affairs Committee hearings. That’s where the real fight over the agency's legal life is happening. If H.R. 1029 or H.R. 1123 (the bills to abolish USAID) ever get a floor vote, that's your signal that the "backdoor" shutdown is becoming a front-door reality.
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Next Steps to Stay Informed:
- Check the Congressional Research Service (CRS) reports for the latest legal analysis on agency reorganization.
- Monitor the USAID Office of Inspector General (OIG) website; they are still releasing oversight plans for 2026, which shows the "bureaucratic heart" is still beating, even if it's faint.
- Watch for the March 31, 2026 deadline for new bilateral aid agreements—it's the next big "cliff" for what's left of the agency's programs.