It is the question every person in South Florida has been muttering into their cafecito for weeks. Can the Miami Dolphins still make the playoffs? If you’re looking for the short, painful answer: no. As of January 2026, the door hasn't just been closed; it’s been deadbolted, barred, and the keys were tossed into the Atlantic somewhere near Government Cut.
Miami officially fell out of the running back in mid-December after a demoralizing loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. That 28-15 defeat on Monday Night Football was the final nail. It pushed their record to 6-8 at the time, and mathematically, the AFC Wild Card math just didn't work anymore.
Honestly, it’s been a weird year. We saw a team that started 1-6, looked like they were tanking for a draft pick, then suddenly rattled off four straight wins to give everyone false hope. It was the classic Dolphins rollercoaster. One week they're beating the Bills at home, and the next they’re looking lost against a struggling Bengals squad.
Can the Miami Dolphins still make the playoffs? The math says no
By the time the regular season wrapped up on January 4, 2026, the Dolphins sat at a final record of 7-10. They finished 10th in the AFC. To put that in perspective, the final playoff spot in the conference—the 7th seed—went to the Los Angeles Chargers, who finished 11-6.
The gap wasn't even close.
💡 You might also like: Anthony Davis USC Running Back: Why the Notre Dame Killer Still Matters
- Final AFC East Standings: New England (14-3), Buffalo (12-5), Miami (7-10), NY Jets (3-14).
- The Playoff Cutoff: You basically needed 10 or 11 wins to even sniff the postseason in the AFC this year.
The "what if" game is always fun, but for Miami, the "what if" was settled weeks ago. When you lose to the Panthers and the Browns in the same season, you aren't a playoff team. That’s just the reality of the NFL in 2025.
What actually went wrong in Miami?
Everyone wants to point fingers. Is it Mike McDaniel’s play-calling? Is it Tua? The defense?
Actually, it was a bit of everything. The defense under Anthony Weaver was, quite frankly, a disaster for the first two months. They were giving up nearly 30 points a game during that 1-6 start. By the time the defense figured out how to stop the run, the hole was already too deep. You can't start a season that poorly and expect to play in January.
Then there’s the Tua Tagovailoa conversation. It’s getting loud. Tua led the league in interceptions this year with 15. Some of those were "arm punt" deep balls, sure, but others were just bad reads. When the Dolphins needed a clutch drive against the Steelers to keep their season alive, he threw a pick. That’s the kind of stuff that gets coaches fired and quarterbacks replaced.
📖 Related: AC Milan vs Bologna: Why This Matchup Always Ruins the Script
The Mike McDaniel ceiling
We have to talk about the coaching. Mike McDaniel is brilliant in front of a microphone and great at designing run schemes for De'Von Achane. But the same problems keep happening.
The Dolphins are still incredibly slow getting to the line of scrimmage. How many delay-of-game penalties or wasted timeouts did we see this year? It feels like Year 1 mistakes happening in Year 4.
"We have to be better. I have to be better. The timing, the operation... it's on me." — Mike McDaniel (post-game vs. Patriots, Week 18)
It’s a quote we’ve heard before. Fans are starting to wonder if the "vibes" era has reached its expiration date. Being the 10th best team in the AFC isn't what anyone signed up for when this roster was built.
👉 See also: 49ers vs Chargers Super Bowl: What Most People Get Wrong
Key stats that doomed the Fins
- Record against winning teams: 1-5. They just can't beat the big dogs.
- Turnover Margin: Miami finished in the bottom third of the league. You can't give the ball away 20+ times and make the playoffs.
- Red Zone Efficiency: They settled for way too many field goals in games that were decided by one score.
What happens next?
The 2026 offseason is going to be a transformational one in Miami. There are already rumors swirling that the front office might look at a "hard reset."
With the 2026 NFL Draft approaching, Miami is looking at a mid-teens pick. Do they take another swing at a quarterback? Do they move on from the McDaniel era? These are the questions that matter now, because the playoff dream died a long time ago.
The most frustrating part for fans is seeing the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots both comfortably in the dance. Seeing your rivals thrive while you're checking mock drafts in early January is a tough pill to swallow.
Actionable steps for Dolphins fans
If you're still tracking the team, here is what you should actually be watching for:
- Monitor the Coaching Search: Keep an eye on NFL insiders like Ian Rapoport. If McDaniel is on the hot seat, the news will break soon.
- Draft Order Positioning: Miami is locked into a top-15 pick. Check the final draft order after the Divisional Round to see exactly where they land.
- Salary Cap Casualty Watch: The Dolphins have some massive contracts (Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb) that might need restructuring or moving to fix the cap.
The answer to can the Miami Dolphins still make the playoffs is a firm no for this cycle. The focus now shifts entirely to whether this group can ever get back there, or if it's time to tear it all down and start over.
The 25-year drought without a playoff win continues. For a franchise with this much history, that isn't just a slump—it's an identity. Breaking that identity is the only thing that matters in 2026.