The idea of a blue Texas has been the "Lucy and the football" moment for American Democrats for decades now. Every four years, like clockwork, a wave of optimistic donor money and hopeful op-eds floods the airwaves, suggesting that the Lone Star State is finally on the verge of a political flip. We've heard it all: the suburbs are changing, the cities are booming, and the demographics are a "ticking time bomb" for the GOP.
But then Election Night actually happens.
If you're asking can Texas turn blue in 2024, the short, blunt answer—based on the cold, hard numbers we saw on November 5—is a resounding "not yet." In fact, rather than moving toward the center, Texas took a sharp, aggressive turn back toward the right. It wasn't just a win for the GOP; it was a blowout that left analysts scratching their heads and Democrats wondering if their "Texas is a swing state" thesis has been fundamentally flawed from the jump.
The Reality Check: Texas in the 2024 Election
Honestly, the 2024 results were a bit of a shock to anyone who spent the summer looking at "close" polls. For years, the margin in Texas had been shrinking. In 2016, Donald Trump won the state by nine points. In 2020, that lead shriveled to about 5.6 points against Joe Biden. Naturally, the 2024 cycle began with people thinking, "Hey, if the trend continues, we're looking at a 2-point race."
Instead, the trend did a complete 180.
Donald Trump didn't just win; he dominated, carrying the state by roughly 14 points—nearly 1.5 million votes. That is the largest margin of victory a presidential candidate has seen in Texas in two decades. To put that in perspective, Kamala Harris ended up with about 42% of the vote, while Trump cleared 56%. That’s a massive gap. It effectively reset the clock on the "Turning Texas Blue" movement back to the pre-Obama era.
The Senate Race That Wasn't
The same story played out in the U.S. Senate race. Representative Colin Allred was supposed to be the perfect candidate to take down Ted Cruz. He was a former NFL player, a moderate, and a fundraising powerhouse. National groups poured millions into his campaign.
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But Cruz won by about 9 points. He even managed to flip thirteen counties that had previously gone for Democrats or were tightly contested. It turns out that while many people might say they dislike Cruz in polls, when it comes down to pulling the lever, the "R" next to the name still carries immense weight in the Texas panhandle and the oil patches of West Texas.
Why the Blue Wave Became a Red Wall
So, what happened? Why didn't the predicted demographic shift save the Democrats?
The biggest story of 2024 wasn't the suburbs—it was South Texas. For over a century, the Rio Grande Valley (RGV) was a Democratic stronghold. Places like Starr County, which is roughly 97% Hispanic, hadn't voted for a Republican president since the 1890s.
In 2024, Starr County went for Donald Trump.
Maverick County, another heavily Hispanic area, saw a staggering 28% swing to the right. This wasn't a fluke; it was a realignment. Exit polls suggested that 55% of Latino voters in Texas backed Trump. For the first time, a Republican candidate won a majority of both Asian and Latino voters in the state.
The Voter Turnout Problem
You also have to look at who actually showed up. While Texas had a record 18.6 million registered voters, the actual turnout percentage dropped. In 2020, about 66% of registered voters cast a ballot. In 2024, that fell to around 61%.
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Crucially, the drop-off happened in the big blue urban hubs.
- Harris County (Houston): Turnout dipped significantly compared to 2020.
- Dallas and Bexar (San Antonio) Counties: Similar stories of lower-than-expected Democratic engagement.
- The Rural Advantage: Meanwhile, in deep-red rural counties, the GOP base remained incredibly disciplined.
Basically, if the people who want Texas to turn blue don't show up in the cities, the state stays red. It's simple math.
The Suburbs: No Longer a Democratic Safe Haven?
For a while, the "Path to Blue" relied on the "Golden Triangle" and the booming suburbs of Austin and Dallas. And yes, in 2020, we saw places like Williamson and Hays counties move left.
But in 2024, the GOP clawed back. While Democrats still hold the urban cores, the "collar counties" (the suburbs surrounding the cities) didn't provide the surge Harris needed. Republicans successfully messaged on the economy and border security, which resonated deeply with suburban families feeling the pinch of inflation.
When you combine a red-shifting South Texas with a stagnant suburban growth for Democrats, you get a state that remains firmly in Republican control.
What Most People Get Wrong About Texas Demographics
There’s this common idea that "Demography is Destiny." The logic goes: Texas is becoming more diverse + younger people are moving there = Texas becomes blue.
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2024 proved that this is a myth.
First, "Hispanic" is not a monolith. A voter in McAllen has very different priorities than a voter in El Paso or a third-generation immigrant in Houston. Many of these voters are socially conservative, work in law enforcement (Border Patrol), or are employed in the oil and gas industry.
Second, the people moving to Texas aren't all liberal Californians. A lot of them are conservatives fleeing high taxes and regulations in blue states. They aren't moving to Texas to change it; they're moving there because they like it exactly how it is.
Can Texas EVER Turn Blue?
Look, politics is cyclical. Nothing is permanent. But the 2024 results suggest that the "Blue Texas" dream is currently on life support. To actually win a statewide race, Democrats would need to:
- Re-engage the Latino vote in South Texas.
- Fix the massive turnout issues in Houston and Dallas.
- Find a way to talk about the economy that doesn't alienate the working class.
Right now, the GOP has a "durable majority." They’ve also been very effective at redistricting—drawing maps that shore up their power even if there’s a small shift in the popular vote.
Actionable Insights for Following Texas Politics
If you're watching for the next shift, stop looking at the presidential polls. They can be misleading. Instead, watch these three things:
- Mid-Decade Redistricting: Keep an eye on how the Texas GOP handles the new maps. They are currently working to lock in their 2024 gains, which could make it even harder for Democrats to flip seats in 2026 and 2028.
- Voter Turnout in Primary Elections: Watch the participation rates in the 2026 gubernatorial primaries. If Democratic turnout remains low in urban centers, the general election is already over before it starts.
- Local Shifts in the RGV: Watch the local races in South Texas. If Republicans start winning county judge and sheriff positions in the Rio Grande Valley, the realignment is permanent.
Texas remains the "Red Wall" of the Republican Party. For now, the question isn't whether Texas will turn blue—it's whether Democrats can even find a way to stop it from getting redder.
To get a clearer picture of the data yourself, you should check the official certified results on the Texas Secretary of State website and compare the county-by-county margins from 2020 to 2024. Seeing the 20-point shifts in border counties is a real eye-opener for anyone still clinging to the 2020 trend lines.