Honestly, the political graveyard is full of people who counted Kamala Harris out too early. It’s early 2026, and if you listen to the chatter in DC or scroll through the doom-scrolling pits of political Twitter, the vibe is... well, it's pretty skeptical. People see a candidate who raised over a billion dollars in 2024 and still couldn't crack the Blue Wall. They see the baggage of the Biden years. They see a Democratic party that is, frankly, soul-searching.
But if you’re asking can Kamala still win another shot at the White House, the answer isn’t a simple yes or no. It’s a "maybe, but the path is basically a tightrope over a volcano."
Politics has a short memory. Remember when Richard Nixon was a "loser" after 1960 and 1962? He came back. Joe Biden ran for president for thirty years before he actually got the keys to the Oval Office. Harris is currently 61 years old. In "presidential years," she’s practically a spring chicken compared to the recent roster. She’s not fading into the background; she’s recalibrating.
The 2026 Pivot: Why She Skipped the Governor’s Race
The biggest signal we've gotten lately was her decision to skip the 2026 California gubernatorial race. A lot of folks thought that was her only "safe" way back to power. After all, she’s a former DA of San Francisco and Attorney General of the state. She would have entered the race as a massive front-runner.
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Instead, she passed. Why? Because the "Sacramento trap" is real. If she became Governor, she’d be bogged down in state-level crises—housing costs, wildfires, insurance markets—for the next four years. That doesn't exactly scream "leader of the free world." By staying out, she keeps her schedule open to travel the country, fundraise for other Democrats, and keep her name in the national conversation without the "boring" work of managing a state budget.
The Fight for the People PAC
Harris isn't just sitting at home in Brentwood. She recently launched the Fight for the People PAC. This is her vehicle for the 2026 midterms. By handing out checks and showing up at rallies for swing-district House candidates, she’s building a "favor bank." In politics, when you help someone get elected, they owe you. If she wants to run in 2028, she’s going to need a lot of those favors cashed in.
What Most People Get Wrong About Her Popularity
There's this narrative that she’s completely toxic to the base. It’s not actually true. While her national approval ratings took a beating during the 2024 campaign, she still holds a massive amount of sway with core Democratic constituencies.
- Black Voters: She remains a powerhouse in South Carolina and across the South.
- Suburban Women: Her focus on reproductive rights during the '24 cycle still resonates.
- The Donor Class: Despite the "billion-dollar loss" headlines, she knows where the money is.
A September 2025 Yahoo/YouGov poll had her at 19% support among Democrats for 2028. That’s only two points behind Gavin Newsom. For someone who just lost a general election, that’s surprisingly resilient. Most losers disappear. She’s still in the top tier.
The Newsom Problem and the 2028 Shadow Campaign
If you want to know if can Kamala still win, you have to look at the guy currently taking up all the oxygen: Gavin Newsom.
Newsom has been everywhere. He’s got a podcast, he’s fighting with the Trump administration over every federal policy imaginable, and he’s basically acting like the "shadow president" of the resistance. In recent Emerson College polling, Newsom has surged to 36% support for the 2028 nomination.
Harris is in a tough spot here. She and Newsom share the same home base and many of the same donors. If they both run, they might just cancel each other out. But Newsom has a "freshness" factor that Harris lacks. He isn't tied to the Biden-era inflation or the 2024 defeat.
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The "Stink of Defeat" Factor
The hardest thing for any politician to wash off is the "loser" label. Democrats are terrified of losing again. There’s a growing faction of the party, represented by people like Josh Shapiro or even the progressive wing under AOC, that wants a totally new direction. They argue that Harris had her chance, she had the money, and she couldn't close the deal.
To win again, she has to convince the party that 2024 wasn't her fault. She’s already started this process with her book, 107 Days, which frames her campaign as a heroic sprint that nearly pulled off the impossible after Biden's late exit. It's a "I did my best with a bad hand" argument. Whether voters buy it is the multi-billion dollar question.
Strategic Realities: The Roadmap Back
So, what does a winning path actually look like for her?
First, the 2026 midterms have to go well for Democrats. If the party gains seats, and her PAC-supported candidates win, she can claim part of the credit. She needs to be seen as a "kingmaker" rather than a "has-been."
Second, she needs a "moment." Right now, the Trump administration is moving fast on its agenda. If Harris can position herself as the most effective voice against a specific policy—say, mass deportations or healthcare changes—she can regain that "prosecutor" energy that made her famous during the Kavanaugh hearings.
Third, she has to wait for the other candidates to stumble. Newsom is flashy, but he has plenty of vulnerabilities. Pritzker, Whitmer, and Shapiro are all untested on the national stage. If they start looking like "another 2024 waiting to happen," the party might suddenly find comfort in someone with her experience.
The Elephant in the Room: The "Veblen" Effect
In economics, a Veblen good is something that people want more of as the price goes up because it signals status. In politics, sometimes the "old" candidate becomes a "Veblen" candidate. After four years of a different administration, voters often start to feel nostalgic for the "stability" of the people they used to complain about.
If the 2028 cycle feels chaotic, Harris might look like the adult in the room.
Actionable Insights: How to Track Her Progress
If you're watching her career to see if a comeback is actually happening, don't look at national polls yet. Look at these three things:
- PAC Fundraising: If the Fight for the People PAC is out-raising Newsom’s Campaign for Democracy, she’s still got the juice.
- Endorsement Requests: Watch which 2026 candidates ask her to come to their districts. If they’re ducking her, she’s in trouble. If they’re standing on stage with her in Pennsylvania or Michigan, she’s alive and well.
- The Media Blitz: Her BBC interview and the release of 107 Days were just the start. If she starts a regular media residency or a high-profile non-profit, she’s building a permanent platform.
Basically, she isn't going anywhere. Whether that translates into a winning ticket in 2028 depends on if the Democratic party decides they’re ready to forgive the 2024 heartbreak. It's a long shot, but in American politics, the "long shot" is usually the only shot worth taking.
To stay informed, you should keep a close eye on the 2026 primary results in California and the Midwest, as these will be the first real indicators of whether the "Harris brand" still has legs with the voters who will decide the next nomination.