California vs Texas: What State Has the Biggest Population in the United States Right Now?

It is a question that defines the modern American landscape. You've likely seen the headlines about the "California Exodus" or the massive corporate move to the "Silicon Hills" of Austin. Everyone seems to have an opinion on where people are actually going. But when you look at the raw data for 2026, one fact remains unchanged despite all the noise.

California is still the heavyweight champion.

With roughly 39.4 million residents, California remains the state with the biggest population in the United States. It isn't even a close race for the top spot yet. To put that in perspective, California’s population is larger than the entire country of Canada. If California were its own nation, it would have a bigger economy than most European countries.

But staying at the top hasn't been easy. The gap is closing. While California still holds the crown, its lead over the rest of the pack—specifically Texas—is shrinking for the first time in modern history.

The Giant and the Contender: Comparing the Top Two

If you’re curious about how the leaderboard looks right now, the rankings have stayed remarkably stable at the very top, even if the "vibes" feel different.

California sits at #1 with about 39.4 million people.
Texas follows at #2 with roughly 31.3 million.
Florida holds #3 with around 23.4 million.
New York stays at #4, hovering just under 20 million.

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Honestly, the distance between California and Texas is still about 8 million people. That is a massive buffer. It’s like having an entire state of Virginia as your "lead" in the race. However, the trajectory is what's actually interesting. California has spent the last few years essentially flatlining or experiencing tiny dips and recoveries. Meanwhile, Texas is growing at a rate of over 1% every year.

Texas is adding roughly 400,000 to 500,000 people annually. At that pace, some demographers at places like the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center project that Texas could potentially overtake California by the year 2045 or 2050. That’s a long way off, but the shift is real.

Why California is Still the Biggest Population Center

You might wonder why California stays on top if everyone says people are leaving. It’s a fair question. The "exodus" is real—domestic migration (people moving from one U.S. state to another) has been negative for California for years. People are moving to places like Nevada, Arizona, and Texas primarily because of housing costs.

But there are two things people often forget: International migration and natural increase.

1. Global Attraction: California remains the primary gateway for international immigrants. Even when Americans move out, thousands of people from around the world move in.
2. Birth Rates: While birth rates are declining everywhere, California’s sheer size means it still has a significant "natural increase" (more births than deaths) most years.
3. Economic Gravity: Silicon Valley and the entertainment industry in Los Angeles aren't going anywhere. These sectors act like massive magnets for talent, even if some workers are now "remote" in other states.

The Rise of Texas and Florida

While California is the biggest, it isn't the fastest-growing. That title usually bounces between Texas and Florida.

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Texas has a "perfect storm" for growth. It has no state income tax, plenty of land for suburban sprawl, and a business-friendly environment that has lured giants like Tesla and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. It’s basically the anti-California in terms of regulation and cost.

Florida, on the other hand, is the "Migration Magnet." In 2024 and 2025, Florida often led the nation in net migration. People aren't just moving there to retire anymore; younger families are heading to places like Tampa and Orlando for the weather and the lower cost of living.

Small States, Huge Percentage Growth

Don't ignore the "little" guys. While they will never have the biggest population in the United States, states like Utah and Idaho have been growing at staggering percentage rates.

Utah has consistently been one of the fastest-growing states over the last decade. Why? It has a very high birth rate compared to the rest of the country and a booming tech sector in the "Silicon Slopes." Idaho has become the go-to destination for people fleeing the high prices of the Pacific Northwest.

What Happens Next for the Most Populous States?

We are entering a weird era of American demographics. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that by 2030, the U.S. population will grow mostly through immigration because the "natural increase" will eventually hit zero as the population ages.

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For California to stay #1, it has to solve its housing crisis. The Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) has shown that about 37% of residents have considered leaving specifically because of what it costs to put a roof over their heads. If the state doesn't build more, the "Texas Takeover" might happen sooner than 2050.

Texas and Florida have their own problems. Rapid growth leads to traffic, strained power grids, and rising property taxes. As these states become more "crowded," the very things that made them attractive—cheap land and easy living—start to disappear.

Actionable Takeaways for Your Next Move

If you are looking at these population trends to decide where to live or invest, keep these points in mind:

• Look Beyond the Headline: California is still the biggest, but its growth is stagnant. This means infrastructure might be older, but services are often more established.
• Watch the "Sun Belt" Costs: Places like Austin, TX and Miami, FL aren't "cheap" anymore. The population boom has driven up prices to near-coastal levels in some neighborhoods.
• Consider "Second Tier" Growth: If you want growth without the chaos of the top three states, look at North Carolina or Georgia. They are climbing the ranks (Georgia is currently #8) and offer a middle ground between the high-cost West/Northeast and the booming Deep South.
• Check Local Vacancy Rates: High population doesn't always mean a housing shortage. Check construction permits in a city before moving; Texas builds fast, while California builds slow. This affects your rent more than the total population number ever will.

The "Biggest State" title isn't just a fun fact for trivia night. It dictates everything from how many seats a state gets in Congress to how much federal funding goes to its roads. For now, California is the undisputed king. But keep your eyes on the Lone Star State—the gap is getting smaller every single day.

Explore the latest U.S. Census Bureau "Vintage" estimates if you want to see the specific county-by-county breakdowns for this year. Knowing where the crowd is moving is the best way to stay ahead of the curve.

Next Steps for You:

• Compare the cost of living between the top 5 most populous states using a localized CPI calculator.
• Research the 2026 Congressional apportionment projections to see how these population shifts are changing political power.
• Review state-specific housing starts to identify which high-population areas are actually keeping up with demand.