Honestly, if you were watching the California senate race 2024 polls back in the fall of '24, you probably felt like you were watching a movie where the ending had already leaked. But the data tells a much more nuanced story than just "Democrat wins in a blue state." We saw some weird shifts. Some of those numbers were actually record-breaking, and the gap between what the pollsters predicted and how people actually voted is worth a second look.
Adam Schiff eventually took the seat, but the journey through the data was a wild ride.
The whole thing kicked off after the passing of Senator Dianne Feinstein. It wasn't just a race for a seat; it was a race for the soul of the California Democratic party, at least until Steve Garvey, the former Dodgers star, stepped onto the field. By the time we hit the general election, the polls were showing a massive gap, yet Garvey ended up pulling more votes than any Republican in California history. Let’s break down how that happened.
Why California Senate Race 2024 Polls Got the Margin Right (Mostly)
Most of the major polling outfits—think UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)—pretty much nailed the winner early on. By October 2024, Schiff was sitting comfortably.
A late October poll from Berkeley IGS had Schiff at 53% and Garvey at 36%. That’s a 17-point lead. When the dust finally settled on election night, Schiff ended up with 58.9% of the vote to Garvey's 41.1%. The margin ended up being about 17.8 points. So, yeah, the pollsters were actually remarkably accurate regarding the spread.
What’s interesting is that even though Schiff won handily, Garvey managed to crack the 40% mark. In a state where Republicans usually struggle to get out of the 30s in statewide races, that was a huge deal. Garvey actually won Orange County, which is wild because that same county went for Kamala Harris in the presidential race. It shows that some voters were willing to split their tickets—a rarity in today's hyper-polarized world.
The Primary Spend That Changed Everything
You can't talk about the polls without talking about the money. Schiff’s campaign spent tens of millions of dollars during the primary. But here's the kicker: a lot of that money was spent "attacking" Steve Garvey.
By calling Garvey "too conservative for California," Schiff actually helped Garvey consolidate the Republican vote. He wanted to face a Republican in the general election rather than a fellow Democrat like Katie Porter or Barbara Lee. In a Democrat-versus-Democrat matchup, the polls suggested the race would have been much closer and way more expensive for Schiff in the long run.
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Basically, the strategy worked. Schiff chose his opponent, and the polls immediately reflected a double-digit lead that never really went away.
Looking at the Demographic Splits
The California senate race 2024 polls revealed some deep divides in how different groups viewed the candidates. Schiff’s support was a fortress built on urban centers and specific ethnic blocks, while Garvey found his strength in the "forgotten" parts of the state.
- The Age Gap: Schiff dominated with older voters. Among those 65 or older, he led by roughly 20 points in late surveys. Younger voters (18-29) were a different story. While they still preferred Schiff, a huge chunk—nearly 19% in the Berkeley IGS poll—remained undecided just weeks before the election.
- Race and Ethnicity: Schiff had a massive lead with Black voters, holding about 69% of that demographic in mid-October. Latino voters were a bit more split than usual. Schiff led 47% to 37% among Latinos in the same poll, which is a much narrower margin than Democrats are used to in the Golden State.
- Education Matters: This was a big one. Among college graduates, Schiff had a staggering 32-point lead. But for those without a degree, the race was almost a coin flip, with Schiff only leading by a few percentage points.
The "Special" Election Confusion
Did you notice there were actually two Senate races on your ballot?
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One was for the full six-year term, and the other was a "special" election to finish the last few weeks of Feinstein’s term. Schiff won both, but the numbers were slightly different. In the special election, he got 58.75% of the vote. In the regular term, he got 58.87%. It’s a tiny difference, but it shows that a few thousand people literally just skipped one of the bubbles or got confused by the duplicate names.
What This Means for Future California Elections
Even though the results seem like "business as usual" for California, the sheer volume of votes for Garvey—over 6.3 million—suggests that there is a significant Republican base that isn't going anywhere. Schiff now enters the Senate with a record-breaking 9 million votes, the most any Senate candidate has ever received in U.S. history.
If you are looking at what's next, keep an eye on the 2026 Governor's race. The same demographic shifts we saw in the 2024 polls—Latino men moving slightly right and a massive education divide—are going to be the main battlegrounds.
Next Steps for Informed Voters
To stay ahead of the curve for the next cycle, you should look at the certified precinct-level data from the California Secretary of State’s website. It shows exactly which neighborhoods shifted. Also, keep tabs on Schiff's committee assignments in the 119th Congress; his influence on national policy will be a direct reflection of the mandate these 2024 polls initially suggested.