It was only a couple of years ago that watching a game at Haas Pavilion felt like a chore. The 2022-23 season was, to put it bluntly, a disaster. Three wins. Twenty-nine losses. It wasn’t just that the team was losing; it was how they were losing. The energy was gone. The seats were empty. People were basically wondering if California Golden Bears basketball would ever be relevant again.
Fast forward to January 2026, and the vibe has completely flipped.
The Bears are currently sitting at 13-5. They’ve gone from the basement of the Pac-12 to scrapping in the deep end of the ACC. Honestly, it’s one of the most aggressive program turnarounds in the country. But it hasn't been a straight line up. Just last week, they hit a wall against No. 6 Duke and then had a rough afternoon against North Carolina.
If you’re a Cal fan, you’ve probably spent the last week staring at the box scores and wondering if the bubble is about to burst. There’s a lot to love about this roster, but there are also some massive, glaring issues—specifically on the glass—that could determine whether they're dancing in March or sitting at home again.
The Madsen Effect and the Transfer Portal Gamble
Mark Madsen, "Mad Dog" himself, is the reason the lights are back on in Berkeley. When he took over, he didn't just try to build a culture; he rebuilt the entire roster from scratch. Twice.
Think about this: Cal’s top four scorers right now—Dai Dai Ames, John Camden, Justin Pippen, and Chris Bell—all started their careers somewhere else.
- Dai Dai Ames (Virginia transfer) is the engine. He’s putting up about 17.4 points a game and has this habit of hitting "how did he do that?" shots late in the shot clock.
- Justin Pippen, the son of Scottie Pippen, has been a revelation as a sophomore. He’s averaging 14.4 points and isn't afraid of the big moments.
- John Camden is that classic 6-foot-8 wing every team needs. He’s shooting over 40% from three-point range, which spaces the floor for everyone else.
This "instant team" approach is risky. You've got guys who haven't played together for more than a few months trying to beat ACC teams that have years of continuity. It’s a gamble. But considering where this program was under Mark Fox, it was a gamble Madsen had to take.
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The Rebounding Crisis: A 12-Carat Problem
If you want to know why Cal is struggling to keep pace with the Duke and UNC’s of the world, look at the rebounding margin. It’s ugly.
Right now, Cal is ranked near the bottom of the ACC in rebounding. In their recent loss to Duke, they got out-rebounded 38-22. You can’t give elite teams 11 offensive rebounds and expect to win. It’s basically basketball suicide.
A huge part of this is the loss of Rytis Petraitis. He’s a scrappy 6-foot-7 senior who was supposed to be the team’s glue guy. He averaged nearly six boards a game last year. Unfortunately, he’s out for the season after surgery. That leaves a massive hole. Lee Dort is doing his best—he’s grabbing about 7.6 rebounds a night—but he’s often on an island down there.
Madsen has tried playing "twin towers" with Dort and graduate transfer Milos Ilic, but it hasn't quite clicked yet. They’re mobile, but they aren’t "ACC big" yet. When you’re facing guys like UNC’s Caleb Wilson, who’s a projected NBA lottery pick, "trying hard" isn't always enough.
Life in the ACC: The New Normal
Let’s be real: nobody thought the move to the ACC would be easy for California Golden Bears basketball. The travel alone is a nightmare. Flying to Virginia or North Carolina on a Tuesday night is a lot different than a quick hop to Los Angeles.
But the Bears have actually held their own. They started the season 12-1, which was their best start since the 1959-60 season. Yeah, the year they went to the National Championship.
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That 12-1 start included a win over UCLA at the Chase Center and a dominant home stretch. Haas Pavilion is actually loud again. People are showing up.
The problem is that the ACC is a meat grinder. You can play a "good" game and still lose by 15 because the other team has three future NBA players on their bench. The Bears are 1-4 in conference play right now, but those losses are to the heavyweights. The real test comes in February when they face the middle-of-the-pack teams. That's where the season will be made or broken.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Team
There’s this narrative that Cal is just a "transfer portal team" with no soul. That’s kinda lazy.
If you watch them play, you’ll see Mark Madsen coaching every possession like it’s the NBA Finals. He’s brought an intensity that was missing for a decade. Even in the Duke loss, they didn't quit. They were diving for loose balls down 20.
Also, people forget that Justin Pippen chose Cal over a lot of other high-major offers. He’s a legitimate building block, not just a one-year rental. If Madsen can keep this core together—which is the hardest part of college hoops in 2026—Cal won't just be a "good story," they'll be a consistent threat.
The Path to the Tournament
Can they actually make the NCAA Tournament?
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Back in December, Joe Lunardi had them in his "First Four Out." Some sites like On3 actually had them in the field as an 11-seed.
For that to happen, they basically need to do three things:
- Protect Haas Pavilion. They’re 12-2 at home. They have to keep that up.
- Find a way to rebound by committee. With Petraitis out, guys like Chris Bell and John Camden have to start crashing the boards like their lives depend on it.
- Steal two or three road games. Winning in Berkeley is great, but the committee needs to see them win in a hostile environment on the East Coast.
How to Follow the Bears This Season
If you want to keep tabs on the progress, here is the best way to do it without getting overwhelmed by stats:
- Watch the "Big Two": Keep an eye on the chemistry between Ames and Pippen. When they’re both on, Cal can score with anyone.
- Monitor the Glass: Check the rebounding margin after every game. If it’s negative double-digits, they probably lost.
- Attend a Home Game: Honestly, if you’re in the Bay Area, just go. The atmosphere is the best it’s been since the Cuonzo Martin era.
- Follow the NET Rankings: Don't just look at the AP Poll. The NET is what the committee uses. Right now, Cal is hovering around 45-50. They need to stay in that range to have a shot.
The road ahead isn't exactly smooth. They’ve got a home-and-home with Stanford coming up in late January and February, and those games are always a toss-up, regardless of records. But for the first time in a long time, California Golden Bears basketball is worth talking about again.
And that, in itself, is a massive win for the folks in Berkeley.
Actionable Next Steps for Cal Fans
- Track the NET: Check the NCAA NET Rankings every Monday morning to see if the Bears are trending toward the bubble.
- Focus on the Schedule: Circle February 7th on your calendar—that's when Clemson comes to Haas. It’s a "Quadrant 1" opportunity that could clinch a tournament bid.
- Watch the Minutes: See how much run Mantas Kocanas or Milos Ilic get in the next three games; Cal desperately needs one of them to emerge as a reliable secondary rim protector.