Honestly, it feels like Gavin Newsom has been in charge forever. But the clock is ticking on his time in Sacramento, and the California 2026 governor race is already turning into a massive, complicated mess. Usually, by now, we'd have a clear "anointed" successor from the Democratic establishment. Instead, we’ve got a wide-open scramble where even the frontrunners are barely cracking 15% in the polls.
It’s weird.
In late 2025, a bunch of the "big names" basically looked at the math and walked away. Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, who was the first person to jump in years ago, bailed in August to run for State Treasurer instead. Then Toni Atkins, the former Senate Pro Tem, dropped out in September. Even the Attorney General, Rob Bonta, just recently announced he’s staying put to run for re-election as AG.
What’s left is a mix of ideological heavyweights, billionaire outsiders, and a couple of Republicans who think they’ve finally found a crack in the blue wall.
The Democratic Civil War
If you look at the Democratic side, it’s basically a fight for the soul of the party. You have Katie Porter, the whiteboard-wielding former Congresswoman, who is currently leading most polls. She’s got that "outsider even though I'm an insider" energy that people seem to dig right now. But she’s not alone.
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Eric Swalwell jumped in late 2025 and immediately started eating into Porter’s lead. According to a December 2025 Emerson College poll, Swalwell and Porter are basically neck-and-neck among Democrats. Swalwell is leaning hard into his "anti-Trump" credentials, which usually plays well in California, but some voters are wondering if that's enough of a platform for a state with a massive housing crisis.
Then you have the "experienced hands."
- Xavier Becerra: Former HHS Secretary. He’s got the resume, but he’s been taking a lot of heat in the headlines lately.
- Antonio Villaraigosa: The former LA Mayor is back for another round. He’s positioning himself as the moderate "law and order" Democrat.
- Betty Yee: The former Controller knows where all the money is hidden, which might be useful since the state's budget isn't exactly looking pretty.
- Tony Thurmond: The State Superintendent is pitching himself as the champion for public education and low-income families.
And don't forget Tom Steyer. The billionaire climate activist just jumped in with a massive TV ad buy. He’s never held office, but in a state as expensive as California, having your own bank account to fund a campaign is a huge advantage.
The Republican "Law and Order" Play
Let’s be real: a Republican hasn't won a statewide race in California in nearly 20 years. Arnold Schwarzenegger feels like ancient history. But the California 2026 governor race is giving the GOP a tiny glimmer of hope because of two guys: Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton.
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Chad Bianco is the Riverside County Sheriff. He wears a cowboy hat, talks tough about the "sanctuary state" laws, and basically hates how Sacramento is being run. He’s actually leading the entire field in some early polls with about 13-14% of the vote. In a "Top Two" primary system, he only needs to get into the second spot to make it to November.
Steve Hilton is the other big GOP name. You might know him from Fox News or as an advisor to former UK Prime Minister David Cameron. He’s smart, he’s polished, and he’s trying to pitch a more "populist" version of conservatism that focuses on the cost of living.
The strategy for both of these guys is simple: wait for the Democrats to split the vote so many ways that a Republican sneaks into the general election. If it’s a Republican vs. a Democrat in November, the Democrat almost always wins. But if the GOP can frame the race around crime and the $5-a-gallon gas, things might get interesting.
What Voters Actually Care About
According to recent data, nobody is really thinking about "national" politics as much as you’d think. People are stressed.
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- The Economy: About 34% of voters say this is their number one issue.
- Housing: 25% are obsessed with how they’re ever going to afford a house.
- Immigration: This has spiked recently, with 10% of voters calling it a top priority.
- Safety: There's a growing "fed up" vibe regarding retail theft and homelessness.
Why the "None of the Above" Lead Matters
Here is the most telling stat about the California 2026 governor race: in a January 2026 poll of independent voters, "None of the Above" actually beat every single candidate.
Roughly 31% of the total electorate is undecided. That is a massive number. It means Californians aren't sold on the current menu. They’re tired of the same rhetoric. They see the state’s population shrinking for the first time in history and they want someone who actually has a plan to fix the "California Exodus."
The upcoming debate on February 3, 2026, in San Francisco is going to be the first real test. Villaraigosa, Yee, Swalwell, Hilton, Steyer, and Thurmond are all confirmed. Porter hasn't been as active on the debate circuit yet, but she'll have to show up eventually.
Actionable Steps for Voters
If you’re trying to make sense of this mess before the June primary, don't just look at the TV ads. Steyer and Hilton are going to outspend everyone, but that doesn't mean they have the best policies.
- Check the "Top Two" Math: Remember, you can vote for anyone regardless of party. If you want a specific matchup in November, you have to be strategic in June.
- Follow the Money: Use the California Secretary of State’s "Power Search" tool. See who is funding these campaigns. Is it labor unions? Big Tech? Real estate developers?
- Watch the Debates: The February 3rd debate will be streamed on FOX Local apps. Pay attention to how they handle the "Housing Affordability" questions—that’s where the real differences are.
- Register Early: If you’ve moved recently (like half the state seems to have), make sure your registration is updated by May to ensure you get your mail-in ballot for the primary.
The California 2026 governor race is basically a high-stakes job interview for the person who has to manage one of the largest economies in the world. It’s going to be loud, it’s going to be expensive, and honestly, it’s probably going to be a little bit exhausting.