Look, if you’re living in Western New York, you already know the drill. You check the sky, you check the apps, and then you probably look at the neighbor’s snowblower just to see if they’re getting nervous.
Buffalo weather this sunday is shaping up to be one of those classic "welcome to January" scenarios that keeps the salt trucks busy and the coffee shops packed. We aren't talking about a light dusting here.
The Sunday Breakdown: Snow and Shivers
Honestly, the numbers coming from the National Weather Service and Storm Team 2 are starting to look pretty consistent. Sunday, January 18, 2026, is going to feel like a proper Buffalo winter day. We’re looking at a high of 20°F and a low dipping down to 16°F.
Don't let that 20-degree high fool you. With southwest winds kicking up at around 14 mph, it’s going to feel significantly colder when you’re out there scraping the windshield. Humidity is sitting high at 84%, which basically means that damp, bone-chilling cold is going to settle right into your jacket.
- Daytime: Snow showers are the main event. There is a 20% chance of precipitation during the day.
- Nighttime: Things get a bit more serious. The chance of snow jumps to 40%, and we’re expecting steadier accumulation as the sun goes down.
Why the "Lake Effect" is the Real Story
You've probably heard the term "oscillating snowbands" tossed around by Patrick Hammer and the team at Storm Team 2. It sounds technical, but basically, it means the snow isn't going to hit everyone at once.
🔗 Read more: Who is Winning in the Polls: Why the Numbers Keep Changing and What Actually Matters
A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for the region, stretching from Sunday evening all the way through Wednesday. While the daytime on Sunday might just feel like a few pesky showers, the "Impact Alert" really kicks in as that arctic air arrives.
The most persistent lake snows are likely to set up from the Buffalo Metro area down toward Batavia. If you're in the Southtowns or the Southern Tier, you might actually avoid the worst of it on Sunday specifically, but don't get too comfortable. This is a multi-day event.
Winds and Visibility
One thing people often forget to check is the wind direction. It’s coming from the southwest. For us, that usually means the lake is wide open and ready to dump.
📖 Related: General George S. Patton Jr.: What Most People Get Wrong
The National Weather Service is warning that gusts could hit 45 mph as the system matures. Even if only a few inches of fresh powder fall on Sunday, that wind is going to whip it across the 190 and the 219, creating those whiteout conditions that turn a ten-minute drive into an hour-long ordeal.
Pro tip: If you have to be on the Thruway Sunday night, just... don't. Or at least make sure your washer fluid is topped off. You're going to need it.
The Bigger Picture
This isn't just a random flurry. We’re seeing a weak La Niña pattern this season, which historically means we get these sharp cold surges followed by weird thaws. This Sunday is the start of one of those cold surges.
According to WGRZ’s winter outlook, we’re pacing for a season total between 75 and 95 inches at the airport. While the start of January was a bit of a mixed bag, this upcoming Sunday marks a shift back into the deep freeze.
📖 Related: ICE Facility Access Denied: Why House Democrats Are Suing the Administration
Survival Steps for Sunday
Stop by the store on Saturday. Seriously. You don't want to be the person fighting over the last gallon of milk when the lake effect band decides to park itself over your driveway.
- Check the tailpipe: If you’re clearing your car, make sure the exhaust isn't blocked by a snowbank. It’s a small thing that actually matters.
- Layer up: It's 20 degrees, but the wind chill will make it feel closer to 10 or even single digits.
- Pet Safety: If it's too cold for you, it’s definitely too cold for the dog. Keep the walks short.
- Phone Charge: Keep your devices juiced up in case the wind plays games with the local power lines.
The snow is coming, and it's starting Sunday. It’s just Buffalo being Buffalo.